France 2017: Results Thread

[DavidB.]

Is there any live stream showing results of larger municipalities as they come in?

[DavidB.]

Here we... here we... here we f***ing go!

[DavidB.]

TF1 estimate

Le Pen 23
Macron 23
Melenchon 19
Fillon 19
Hamon 7

Sorry, but what are these numbers based on?  Exit poll?  Early vote tally?  If the latter, then how many votes went into the tally, and from where?

Prognosis, which should be accurate.

[DavidB.]

Daily reminder that he got slightly more votes than Dupont-Aignan.

[DavidB.]

Le Pen probably won't be elected, but at least France will get long-needed labor market reforms and a government with a stable, pro-Western geopolitical outlook. Buh-bye, Fillon and Mélenchon!

[DavidB.]

Five years and countless attacks later and Le Pen only improves her showing by about 4%. Western Europe is doomed. Western Europeans are just too stupid.

[DavidB.]

In election after election across the West, the Left has collapsed and the Right has either collapsed or adapted itself to the Far-Right. Each election has shown the "new left" being composed of white collar and minority, neoliberal, globalists against working and middle class nationalists. This does not bode well for those of us who support a Left detached from neoliberalism.

I understand your frustration I really do.

But just remember that this wave of populism had been 30-35 years in the making. Rright now it's more centered towards the right wing; but plenty of left wing populist movements are either forming or thriving. If the right wing populists either fail to win power or enact serious positive change then you'll see the next global phase be geared towards populist leftism.

No, that won't happen, unless these populist leftists oppose multiculturalism and immigration. The "economic anxiety" nonsense isn't worth much. People just don't want to live in a multicultural country.

[DavidB.]

This strikes me as similar to what happened in Holland - The Far Right gets over-inflated results a year or two away from the election (Le Pen scored as high as 32% at some points in 2014 and 2015) only to end up slightly on the up tick from where it was last time.

Indeed, it seems comparable.

[DavidB.]

With around 80% (my guess) of the vote counted Marcon takes the lead

Marcon          23.08%
Le Pen           23.01%
Fillon            19.70%
Mélenchon     18.91%
Hamon           6.03%
Dupont-Aignan 5.03%

His name is Macron.

[DavidB.]

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

Your racism is showing.

Shouting racism doesn't make you win the argument, sweetie.

[DavidB.]

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.

No one was talking about the law.

[DavidB.]

Some larger cities:

Strasbourg: Macron 27.8%, Mélenchon 24.4%, Fillon 19.8%, Le Pen 12.2%
Lille: Mélenchon 29.9%, Macron 25%, Fillon 14.4%, Le Pen 13.8%
Grenoble: Mélenchon 28.9%, Macron 28.6%, Fillon 15.1%, Hamon 10.8%, Le Pen 10.7%
Bordeaux: Macron 31.3%, Mélenchon 23.4%, Fillon 21.8%, Hamon 10.1%, Le Pen 7.4%
Nantes: Macron 30.8%, Mélenchon 25.5%, Fillon 20.3%, Hamon 11%, Le Pen 7.1%
Dijon: Macron 27.3%, Mélenchon 21.9%, Fillon 20.9%, Le Pen 14.5%

Pretty uniform patterns here. Larger cities where Le Pen did better are Reims (21.9%) and, obviously, Nice (25.3%).

[DavidB.]

Does the president have to step down as party leader? Because if not it makes no sense

Nah, she just does it in an attempt to attract people who may vote for her but don't like the FN brand.

[DavidB.]

That's similar to Irmgard Griss, who also waited a few days/weeks to listen to her voters and then endorsed Van der Bellen before the runoff.

Stop...

[DavidB.]

Harris poll

Macron 61 (-6 compared to their last poll, before the 1rst run)
Lepen 39 (+6)

Herding...

[DavidB.]

Yeah, French politicians are all garbage on Israel. NDA is hardly worse than Le Pen herself, with her "even-handed approach" (Macron is probably more pro-Israel than Le Pen). All this is caused by the French right's hardon for their imaginary alliance with the French-speaking Arab world, which is something that won't change no matter how many Bataclans there will be.

And while your at it, post the death toll so everybody can evaluate what defending yourself constitutes in terms of collateral damage.

Not our fault that we do our best to defend our citizens while the Palestinian leadership want a high death toll on their side so they can get more money from the international community to line their pockets.

[DavidB.]

So the French right hates Muslims but they love the Arab world?

They're notoriously schizophrenic, yes.

[DavidB.]

I didn't realise the Dutch were involved in the operation...

The Dutch?

[DavidB.]

Is it true that access to 4chan has been blocked in France?

[DavidB.]

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Why? We always post the prices of tomatoes, water, bananas and what have you for the Spanish elections too.

[DavidB.]

I think that Macron wins, but by 2-3 points, in my estimation.

Kek

[DavidB.]

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Encouraging.

[DavidB.]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=g-candidate&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Something surprises me and that's the under performance in the Southern coast of france compared to the North. What explains it considering other than the North, the FN is usually strong in the southern coast.

Has to do with FN's transformation from an "all right-wing, all the time" party (including on economic issues) to a "Trump-like" party with protectionist, anti-globalist, quasi-leftist economic views ("the new winning formula" for many radical right-wing parties in Western Europe). This has made them more popular in the industrial and post-industrial north but is less appealing to those who are better off.

[DavidB.]

Var will probably go Macron once Toulon is included.

[DavidB.]

Yes, it's striking that the urban-rural divide (or large cities-small cities divide) is much, much larger in the Northeast than in the Southeast. The Northeastern rural areas and small cities are much more FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast, but the Northeastern urban areas are much less FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast (though overall the cities are less FN-friendly than the countryside in both places). Also explains Aisne, which surprised a lot of people by being consistently the most FN-friendly department but is also a mostly rural northern department with no large urban area to counterbalance it (largest commune has a population of only about 55,000).

Yeah, see also Haute-Marne, which went to Macron with a difference of less than 1000 votes (50.5-49.5). Macron won Chaumont and Langres, the two largest municipalities in the area, with about 65/35 (though it's worth noting that Macron actually won most of the rural southern part of the department as well, which presumably is better off).