France 2017: Results Thread

[Boston Bread]

I wonder whether those leaked exit polls are true or just sh**tty clickbait. 

Most likely clickbait. The French pollsters said there wouldn't be exit polls.

It's possible to do online exit polls. Only in-person exit polls are banned.

[Boston Bread]

LFA spokeswoman on France 2 claims Mélenchon can still make it through the big city vote. Of course that's bullsh*t.

Are the exit polls that precise? Only 2 points seperate the JLM and Le Pen in some exit polls.

[Boston Bread]

Thanks everyone, I didn't realize the projections were based on counted votes, as I didn't find any online vote counts yet.

The France Insoumise lady did point out that Le Pen was estimated at 20% to start with in 2012, and ended up under 18%

Hope lives on!

[Boston Bread]

Lassalle is winning communes in Pyrénées-Atlantiques? Is that supposed to happen? https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/pyrenees-atlantiques-64/

[Boston Bread]

I found a commune in metropolitan France with Hamon in the lead: http://graphics.france24.com/resultats-1er-tour-election-presidentielle-2017/

[Boston Bread]

I found a commune in metropolitan France with Hamon in the lead: http://graphics.france24.com/resultats-1er-tour-election-presidentielle-2017/

Yes, I found a few in Haute-Garonne high in the Pyrenees. Amusingly, one Hamon commune borders a Lassalle commune, and, in two of them, Le Pen got zero votes. A different political world from the rest of France...

I realize now that my link is broken. I was looking at Nouvelle-Aquitaine > Landes  > Saint-Aubin

[Boston Bread]

Mélenchon is still not giving up. Politico.eu says that his campaign's polls say he is within one point of Le Pen.

Did you hear that guys?

Bernie Melenchon can still win!

I admit defeat for Melenchon, but I'm still hoping he can beat Fillon.

[Boston Bread]

Méluche is finally talking on France24

[Boston Bread]

Hollande got >50% in Réunion in the 1st round. That's a huge collapse.

[Boston Bread]

Interestingly, the one Department she won last time was Gard with 25% of the vote - she's getting 30% there this time (a kind of marginal improvement and fits in with the national average). Comparatively, Melenchon shot up 9% in the same area from 13% to 22%. It fits in with what they did but I've seen harder swings to Le Pen elsewhere and seems to fit with the narrative that there are areas where Le Pen's support is being eaten up somewhat by Melenchon.

Swings in the south seem to be weaker for Le Pen. She barely gained in Lozere and Aveyron.

[Boston Bread]

Cantal seems to have finished counting. http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/cantal/?p=compare

[Boston Bread]

Latest Ifop projections

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 20.0%
Mélenchon 19.5%
Hamon 6.4%

Is Fillon going up?  If so, could he still end up in the second round?

Fillon has already conceded, so I don't think so.

[Boston Bread]

I noticed that in Mayotte, with is 97% Muslim, Fillon wins with 33% and Le Pen is second with 27%. Also voted very right-wing in 2012 as well.

[Boston Bread]

For all the talk of LGBT support for the FN.  They got just an average of 4% in the two districts in Paris with a sizable gay population.

All that means is the LGBT vote similarly to non-LGBT, considering Le Pen's 5% score in Paris. She did much better with LGBT outside of Paris.

[Boston Bread]

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?

Mélenchon does take a more skeptical stance on refugees and is stronger on secularism than other left wing candidates, but that puts his immigration policy in the centre and wouldn't be at all scary.

The type of left-wing voter that Mélenchon scares is more of the upper-middle class pro-EU type than immigrants.

[Boston Bread]

Also odd that in America, our minorities went with the centrist Hillary over the left-wing Bernie, while in France, minorities went with the more left-wing candidate.

The thing is, Bernie tended to do well with Muslims in America. I don't have exit polling data for that, but Bernie did win Dearborn, MI with its large Arab population. It's the Black, and to a lesser degree the Hispanic vote that did him in.

[Boston Bread]

Also I noticed the gender divide wasn't very significant, with only 4% difference between male and female support for Le Pen. It was huge in Austria, if I remember correctly it was almost a 30% difference.
edit: found that exit poll, it was
Men: Hofer 56%, Van Der Bellen 44%
Women: Van Der Bellen 62%, Hofer 38%

[Boston Bread]

Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.

I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.

[Boston Bread]

Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.

I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.

Outright joining FI would be suicidal, basically a return to the late 50s and 60s where the PCF consistently won 20% and could do nothing with it. We need a strong social-democratic party that can actually win, not a rump radicalized left bloc.

What I am interested in is getting the left in the second round, at the very least. We narrowly failed in the Presidential, and if the split continues the left will be locked out of a majority of legislative seats in the first round. I would prefer a social democratic party leading the left, but in the current reality joining FI is more realistic.