France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 105542 times)
Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« on: April 23, 2017, 09:39:54 AM »

National commission of polls: poll published yesterday by La Libre Belgique is a fake
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 09:50:52 AM »

The pollsters have been really clear: there is no exit poll.
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2017, 10:04:22 AM »

Turnout at 5pm: 69.42% (-1.17)

Remember polls this time close in the major part of polling station one hour later, that drop is not significiant in my view
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2017, 10:11:16 AM »

Turnout projections:
-Ifop: 81%
-Ipsos: 78%
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2017, 12:58:19 AM »

Is there an idea of how certain minority groups voted? French Muslims, French Jews, French Black people, etc?

Jews - usually a strong constituency for the right. They probably voted for Fillon in big numbers. The FN were doing well with Jews, although Le Pen probably lost support over the Vel d'Hiv comments. Macron probably lost support with Jews, who are largely of North African/pied noir descent, with his comments on Algeria being a "war crime", and the left are probably perceived as being too close to Muslims.

Muslims and blacks - overwhelmingly for Mélenchon and Macron (basically see the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and places like Vénissieux in the Rhône to get an idea.

Note that, in France, collecting data on ethnicity is illegal, so reliable figures are very hard to come by.

No one can collect it at all?

Ipsos poll of the electorate (It's not going to help you so much)

Religion:
-Catholics: Fillon 28%, Macron 23%, Le Pen 22%
   -regular practitioners: Fillon 51%, Macron 20%, Le Pen 11%
   -occasional practitioners: Fillon 27%, Macron 23%, Le Pen 22%
   -non practitioners: Le Pen 29%, Macron 22%, Fillon 16%
-other religions: Mélenchon 23%, Macron 23%, Fillon 21%, Le Pen 15%
-no religion: Mélenchon 28%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 23%, Fillon 7%

The future of your profession:
-in decline: Le Pen 30%, Macron 21%
-in expansion: Macron 27%, Le Pen 24%
-stable: Macron 26%, Le Pen 23%

Household income
-less than €1,250: Le Pen 32%, Mélenchon 25%, Macron 14%
-€1,250 - €2,000: Le Pen 29%, Mélenchon 23%, Macron 18%
-€2,000 - €3,000: Macron 25%, Le Pen 20%, Mélenchon 18%
-more than €3,000: Macron 32%, Fillon 25%, Mélenchon 16%

How do you manage life with your income?
-very hardly: Le Pen 43%, Mélenchon 22%, Macron 13%
-hardly: Le Pen 24%, Mélenchon 21%, Macron 20%
-easily: Macron 32%, Fillon 25%, Mélenchon 16%

How the future generation will live?
-Better: Macron 35%, Mélenchon 20%, Fillon 16%
-Worst: Le Pen 25%, Macron 22%, Mélenchon/Fillon 19%
-Same: Macron 28%, Fillon 23%, Mélenchon 18%
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2017, 11:04:43 AM »

Final result

Macron: 8,657,326 - 24.01%
Le Pen: 7,679,493 - 21.30%
Fillon: 7,213,797 - 20.01%
Mélenchon: 7,060,885 - 19.58%
Hamon: 2,291,565 - 6.36%
Dupont-Aignan: 1,695,186 - 4.70%
Lassalle: 435,365 - 1.21%
Poutou: 394,582 - 1.09%
Asselineau: 332,588 - 0.92%
Arthaud: 232,428 - 0.64%
Cheminade: 65,598 - 0.18%

Turnout: 77.77%
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2017, 02:59:36 PM »

Elabe poll

Macron 64%
Le Pen 36%

And by the way, if the polls were all correct it seems that the closest to the final result was the last Elabe poll published Friday.

They had Macron at 24%, Le Pen at 21.5%, Fillon at 20%, Mélenchon at 19.5%.
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2017, 04:39:12 AM »

My department (l'Aude) had the two anti system candidates arriving first (first Le Pen then Melenchon).  Does anyone know which other departments had the same result?

Le Pen 1st, Mélenchon 2nd: Pas-de-Calais, Nord, Seine-Martime, Pyrénées-Orientales, Hérault, Gard, Ardèche, Bouches-du-Rhône, Vaucluse, Alpes de Haute Provence.

Mélenchon 1st, Le Pen 2nd: Ariège, Guyane, La Réunion, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2017, 11:04:38 AM »

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Macron: 61% (=)
Le Pen: 39% (=)

Ifop
Macron: 61% (+1)
Le Pen: 39% (-1)
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2017, 11:22:59 AM »

One debate on May, 3.

Prime-time interview of Le Pen tonight on TF1, Macron on Thursday.

Mélenchon has launched a consultation online today, asking his supporters what they intend to do between abstention/blank vote/vote Macron.
The result will be released on May, 2.

Mélenchon himself will speak on his Youtube channel tomorrow or Thursday.
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2017, 12:48:40 PM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

Le Pen spent 10 minutes there with her militants taking selfies. Macron spent 1h this morning talking with unions, them 1h30 with workers, booed when he arrived, succeed to talk with them and shook hands when he left.

It was a good move from Le Pen at noon, Macron reversed the situation at 4pm.

Polls
OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%

Ifop
Macron: 60.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 39.5%
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2017, 03:29:34 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2017, 03:34:53 PM by Tirnam »

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

Le Pen spent 10 minutes there with her militants taking selfies. Macron spent 1h this morning talking with unions, them 1h30 with workers, booed when he arrived, succeed to talk with them and shook hands when he left.

It was a good move from Le Pen at noon, Macron reversed the situation at 4pm.

Polls
OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%

Ifop
Macron: 60.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 39.5%
So, net Macron win or just a draw?

so clear Marine win.

No, a draw. It was a good move from Le Pen, her pictures are nicer than for Macron. But it's also very superficial, in contrary of Macron.  When she was there, she didn't explain how she will solve the problem, in fact FN published Le Pen's solutions after Macron's meeting with the workers.
And Macron shown that he wasn't afraid to meet people who disagree with him to explain his positions (like he did several times in the past) and manage to turn the discussion in a good way.

How Macron escaped
Le Pen played well, but Macron knew how to retaliate
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2017, 11:01:37 AM »

Ifop

Macron: 60.5% (=)
Le Pen: 39.5% (=)

Mélenchon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 39%, Le Pen 16%
Hamon's voters: Macron 81%, Abstain 17%, Le Pen 2%
Fillon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 31%, Le Pen 24%

Certainty of the vote
Average: 88%
Macron: 90%
Le Pen: 84%
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2017, 01:22:09 AM »

Incidentally, is there yet a link for first-round votes by constituency/circonscription?

Don't have a map or details, but Wikipedia (with a source in French) says Macron won 230 constituencies to 216 for Le Pen, 67 for Melenchon and 53 for Fillon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017#Background

Map by constituencies

Other maps on this website

And you can find all the data of the election on the government website
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2017, 05:07:36 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2017, 05:47:59 AM by Tirnam »

OpinionWay

Macron: 60% (+1)
Le Pen: 39 40% (-1)

Mélenchon's voters: Abstain 45%, Macron 40%, Le Pen 15%
Hamon's voters: Macron 68%, abstain 29%, Le Pen 3%
Fillon's voters: Macron 43%, Le Pen 29%, abstain 28%
Dupont-Aignan's voters: Le Pen 37%, abstain 32%, Macron 31%
Abstention in the first round: abstain 63%, Macron 28%, Le Pen 9%

Macron: 75% think he will win, 56% want him to win
Le Pen: 21% think she will win, 35% want her to win
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2017, 11:29:32 PM »

Here. If you download the file you will have all the results by regions, départements and constituencies (on the page "circo. leg.").
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2017, 03:25:57 AM »

Borloo endorses Macron

And he seems quite enthusiastic: "I am betting on Emmanuel Macron, the bet of audacity, modernity, renewal and positive action" Macron is "a person who unites, defends an open and united world, transgressive, determined and courageous man".
Privately, a few weeks ago, he was said to be more critical of Macron.

Borloo says that he is ready to help for two or three years. A strong choice for prime minister.
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2017, 06:04:46 AM »

OpinionWay

Macron: 61% (+1)
Le Pen: 39% (-1)

NDA endorsement has no effect so far
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2017, 04:26:42 PM »

Le Pen campaign reaction: "An allusion that shows that she is not sectarian"
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2017, 01:18:39 AM »

Y. Varoufakis call to vote for Macron.
Even if he disagree with Macron's policies, he says that Macron was the only one who wanted to save Greece in 2015.
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2017, 05:40:44 AM »

OpinionWay

Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%(+1)

Ipsos

Macron: 60% (-2)
Le Pen: 40% (+2)

Macron is the most trusted for Europe (50% to 22% for Le Pen), international (47% to 21%). Le Pen for immigration (53% to 22%), terrorism (44% to 21%), security (44% to 19%)
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2017, 10:33:53 AM »

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2017, 11:10:05 AM »

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.

What would be the point of that???
Game expectations I think, to prepare people to the aggressiveness of Le Pen. Unless Le Pen insults him, I think he will stay in the debate.

Ifop

Macron: 59.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 40.5% (-0.5)
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2017, 03:16:49 AM »

Does anyone know if the debate tonight will be shown on the English version of France24 ?
Probably.

Poll Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde

Turnout: 76%

Macron: 59% (-1)
Le Pen: 41% (+1)

Candidate's grade
Macron: dislike (0 to 3): 47%, average (4 to 6): 29%, like (7 to 10): 24%. Average grade: 3.9
Le Pen: dislike: 59%, average: 16%, like: 25%. Average grade: 3.2

Political parties (likelihood to vote for the partyl)
En Marche: 49% not likely (0 to 3), 24% somewhat likely (4 to 6), 23% likely (7 to 10) (average grade: 3.7)
LR: 56% not likely, 18% somewhat likely, 22% likely (average grade: 3.3)
FN: 62% not likely, 10% somewhat likely, 24% likely (average grade: 3.0)
PS: 58% not likely, 23% somewhat likely, 16% likely (average grade: 3.0)
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Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2017, 06:42:14 AM »

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%
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