France 2017: Results Thread

[Zinneke]

I have to say this is a poor move, and not just because it attracts unnecessary attention for a superficial change.

The 8pm results may not be worth as much as previously so I really cannot see why we are not to discuss leaks and who reports what. Overseas results are already known in some parts for example so it gives those places a bit of airtime on here before the Hexagone takes over with all the bs that comes with it.

That said, i hope this issue doesn't take up the first few pages.

National commission of polls: poll published yesterday by La Libre Belgique is a fake

What about their exit poll today?

[Zinneke]

Yeah, an "exit poll" conducted at 2pm would make a lot of sense when you've got an additional 6 hours to vote ...

Yeah, they qualified that in the article. But what i mean is : Did they do it themselves or did they also take it from a fake source like the Swiss.

[Zinneke]

Macron is surging in PredictIt's most votes in first round market:

Macron - 65% (+26)
Le Pen - 35% (-25)

Fillon's odds dropped considerably in the bet market.
RTBf have called an interesting result for those who want to see it. I think the behaviour of the Belgian journo's is to get clickbait so take with a large pinch of salt.

[Zinneke]

Atleast Fillon does the right thing.

He didn't ask his voters directly to vote for Macron.

[Zinneke]

The big story is where Macron did well. And the fact that PS-LR are not there.

[Zinneke]

This is not a thread to settle scores from the 2016 forum.

Interesting what NDA will say.

[Zinneke]

Nicholas Dupont-Aignan endorses...no one.
Will wait till his party gets together to tell them.

[Zinneke]

Nicholas Dupont-Aignan endorses...no one.
Will wait till his party gets together to tell them.

I thought his party was a personality cult? Am i wrong in assuming that?

Yeah, you are right, I was going to make a snide comment about that but I think given the carcrash thread its best to keep humour to the lowest.

[Zinneke]

How come Benoit Hamon did so well in Wallis & Futuna, and what I'm guessing is Rural New Caledonia?  I reckon it involves indigenous peoples rights, but my guess is as good as anyone else's.

Well Hash will know more so your best bet is his blog

https://electionsfrance.wordpress.com/

But I was listening to France Culture's billet politique and the chroniqueur was saying that the Outre-Mère has a much more region-specific vote than Hexagone (i.e its a sociologist's dream rather than a political scientist's). So local PS candidates help their candidate even when its looking that bad.

[Zinneke]

Mélenchon is still not giving up. Politico.eu says that his campaign's polls say he is within one point of Le Pen.

Did you hear that guys?

Bernie Melenchon can still win!

How many write ins in the second round for Méluche.

Boy that'd be glorious.

[Zinneke]

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

Yes. But at the same time I really think people overestimated her after regionals and especially the Europeans.

I think the real danger must be that the far left take up her mantle from the traditional working class back again.

Her hope is that French politics polarises around Macron and her.

But Marine might not last the internal feuding brewing up without an overperformance in the run-off.

[Zinneke]

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

By that definition, does it mean I am not American since I am 2nd generation?

I'm not interested in your family history and you can't compare USA to Europe, but it should be clear that you're only e.g. French when having French parents. At least one. And I don't mean a French passport.

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.

[Zinneke]

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.

No one was talking about the law.

Fantastic, I'm sure the French will absolutely love being told what constitutes being French by a couple of foreigners on the internet.

[Zinneke]

Le Pen has come 5th in every arrondissement of Paris that's come in so far.

Also - Mélenchon is doing very well in the parts of Ile de France east of Paris.

She's in 4th in the 8th arrondissement (with less than 5% of the vote).

Remember when East Paris was quite heavily FN with all those groupuscules and weird neo-nazi groups? What happened?

[Zinneke]

source : https://twitter.com/julesbonnard
EDIT :

updated one

I will never get Corsica.

[Zinneke]

Mister Bonnard has posted the maps by candidate on twitter.

e.g.

[Zinneke]

Places like Vendée and Haut-de-Seine voting for the de facto "left-wing" candidate while doing terribly every working class area.

Not sure if it makes sense to think of Macron in such terms. He's the latest centrist huckster, except that in its current incarnation centrist hucksterism takes a higher share from the left than in its previous one (but not all previous ones).

Gauche de coeur, Droite de portefeuille is how I would describe the specimen I have met.

The younger ones tend to also be the ones who want France to move on and dream of going to places like Montréal to work. Some of them from rural background who moved to their nearest metropole, then Brussels. Kind of ambitious, anti-inferiority complex, and towing the Mittérand 88 line.

I never really saw the UDF capture this kind of message.

[Zinneke]

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

I vote for Nord-Pas-de-Calais.

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Paris. Paris. And Paris.

[Zinneke]

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

I vote for Nord-Pas-de-Calais.

Calais? It went comfortably for Hollande both rounds in 2012. I'd say it's more similar to Michigan - a heavily industrial region that's gone left-wing as of recent but flipped to a nationalist candidate.

Nord-Pas-de-Calais =/= Calais btw.
You are right otherwise.
I mean, American political comparisons are pretty moot. Different political cultures, etc. This part of France used to be strong left-wing territory, Alabama was not. I would say Michigan would be more like a place in Le Grand Est where unions and car manufacturing were/are strong.
 But the people on NPDC have that "redneck" backwards stereotype that even produced a film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wd-Dyg7X-U

[Zinneke]

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)

I think the wholesale defection of MoDem, UDI and PRG to EM are givens. A large portion of prominent PS'ers on the right of the party will also run under the EM banner (e.g., Valls), as will a large portion of prominent LR'ers on the left of the party (e.g., Juppe, Baroin).

The noises coming out of the LR camp still indicate that they are united as a force and motivated to stay within the Right. Juppé said as much in his speech. He is still a Vth Republic Gaullist.

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For sure, Any faction that is led by Mélenchon will not cooperate with the PS. The FdG originally broke up because of this. I think the fact that Hamon, who used to frequent the same PS wing as Mélenchon, ony managed to talk about a united front for two days says as much. Also, Mélenchon has realised his key error in 2012 was the assumption he was a PS sattelite the same way the old PCF became.

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EELV have already split, what seems like a long time ago. De Rugy took the reformists to the PS primary, lost, and endorsed Macron. People like De Rugy and Jean-Vincent Placé will not be missed, I imagine.

Jadot indicated last night he would not continue any cooperation with the PS. EELV could still win a few token seats.

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Well, LR managed to reach 20% with one of the worst possible candidates. Lower turnout could really help them too.
We need to see how many Macron voters want a centre-right government. That would indicate they were just pissed with Fillon.

Since my french is lacking....has sarko published a statement?

Found nothing yet. He will probably find some strength to endorse Macron the way Estrosi did, but its the stance of the LR is the legislatives that is important. If the Sarkozistes call for a neither FN nor EM for their vote, that could push some of their centrists to deffect, and in addition make Macron look more towards his left.  

[Zinneke]

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Any faction that is led by Mélenchon will not cooperate with the PS. The FdG originally broke up because of this. I think the fact that Hamon, who used to frequent the same PS wing as Mélenchon, ony managed to talk about a united front for two days says as much. Also, Mélenchon has realised his key error in 2012 was the assumption he was a PS sattelite the same way the old PCF became.

I read somewhere (Marianne, I think), that, in the light of both disasters both the PS and LR are basically going to try and ignore their presidential candidates for the legislatives. Seems like LR will try and rally around Baroin; and PS are hoping that either Cazeneuve orJean-Christophe Cambadélis will lead the charge.

So I would imagine it is pretty certain that both parties are going to hold it mostly together for the legislatives at least.

EELV and PRG are basically irrelevant as entities outside of the PS, but it's hard to imagine Taubira jumping on the Macron wagon

Taubira is PS. Made the same mistake of thinking she was still PRG.

But I agree with the first part. Basically what I meant to say is that it will probably be left-wing defections to Mélenchon...although Valls seemed pretty pessimistic about the PS in the papers today too. The PS i in way more danger than LR, all things considered.

[Zinneke]

Someone who did not have the last name of Le Pen could have maybe got away with that move, and gone on to challenge. Maybe like her sister, Marine was a reluctant frontiste but knew she had to play the long game to get to the 2nd round and is now hanging all of them out to dry. She will never get away from being her father's daughter.

Or they just want free publicity after an underwhelming result.
Its a strange move.

[Zinneke]

 If rumors about FBM having unusual romantic attractions/and or being gay or bisexual gain traction, that might actually reassure some voters on the right, with them thinking that he might be a closet islamophobe because of this, sort of like Pym Fortuyn was in the Netherlands.

No.

Can we stop discussing Macron's private life?

[Zinneke]

It's not that I think that her chances are that great otherwise, but am I the only one who thinks that openly cozying up to Putin is bad strategy from Le Pen? It only stands to reason that a large part of her appeal has to come from the "muh patriotism" types.

There's actually quite a tradition/nostalgia of seeing Russia as a useful ally in French political thought, as away of countering American or German hegemony in Europe, from the PCF to some Gaullists. I think Le Pen's main interest in Putin is his funding though, because foreign policy is a fairly apathetic issue aside from a few niche electorates.

[Zinneke]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

People calling it political suicide all over the internet.
Him sitting next to Le Pen side by side will define him now.

What do people think of Dupont-Aignan? Is he seen as credible by the French or is he seen as a bit of a quack?

Quack, speaks to his voters as if he is about to save them from WW3.