France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:06:27 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140031 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: April 23, 2017, 09:24:33 AM »

Any good links to results that updates realtime?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 01:01:36 PM »

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan at 5% is amazing
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2017, 01:04:51 PM »

I guess it will be the legislative election that will be interesting on how Macron builds a legislative majority.  
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2017, 01:46:18 PM »

Too bad it is not Fillion vs Le Pen where I would easily back Fillion.  In a Macron vs Le Pen race it would tough for me to pick.  There are some issues I prefer Macron over Le Pen and vice versa.  Most likely I will end up going for Macron.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2017, 01:51:11 PM »


Yeah, why do they make me click on each region one at a time.  This is horrible UI.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2017, 02:03:59 PM »

Le Figaro now projects

Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 19.5%
Melenchon 19%
Hamon 6.8%
Dupont-Aignan 5%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2017, 02:20:31 PM »

Le Figaro now projects

Macron 23.8%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 19.8%
Melenchon 19.2%
Hamon 6.5%
Dupont-Aignan 5.0%

Converging to other projections.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2017, 03:14:09 PM »

Latest Ifop projections

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 20.0%
Mélenchon 19.5%
Hamon 6.4%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2017, 03:20:07 PM »

Ipsos snap poll has it as Macron 62 Le Pen 38 for second round.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2017, 03:22:25 PM »

Le Pen is getting a much bigger swing in the North than the South which is as expected.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2017, 04:23:25 PM »

Wait, according to

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

97% of the votes are counted and

Le Pen is still ahead of Marcon 23.69% to 22.66%

Am I missing something here ?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2017, 04:57:18 PM »

My best guess is that around 76% of the vote are in and it is

Le Pen           23.29%
Marcon          22.95%
Fillon            19.69%
Mélenchon     18.76%
Hamon           5.98%
Dupont-Aignan 5.06%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2017, 04:59:01 PM »

With around 80% (my guess) of the vote counted Marcon takes the lead

Marcon          23.08%
Le Pen           23.01%
Fillon            19.70%
Mélenchon     18.91%
Hamon           6.03%
Dupont-Aignan 5.03%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2017, 05:55:52 PM »

With around 86% (my guess) of the vote counted

Macron          23.26%
Le Pen           22.53%
Fillon            19.77%
Mélenchon     19.19%
Hamon           6.12%
Dupont-Aignan 4.96%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2017, 06:06:53 PM »

From 45.97m voters (95.56%): Macron 23.82%, Le Pen 21.58%, Fillon 19.97%,
Melenchon 19.48%

Where is your link to this.  The links I follow

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2017/elezioni/francia/?refresh_cens

all seems to have counts that are around high 80s in terms of votes counted.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2017, 06:13:36 PM »

I suspect Le Pen should be able to break 40% in the second round and could even go as high as 42% despite what the polls might say now.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2017, 06:20:16 PM »

I suspect Le Pen should be able to break 40% in the second round and could even go as high as 42% despite what the polls might say now.

Why? Do you think she'll get more Fillon switchers than is expected?

I noticed that in 2007 and 2012 the second round seems to always end in the underdog and eventual loser doing better than the initial polls and even final polls would suggest.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2017, 06:21:09 PM »

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but I had to get off the forum ten pages in. Is there any chance that Le Pen comes out on top in this first round? From what I can see, she is currently 0.4% behind with ten departments remaining (five of them around Paris).

Unlikely.

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

seems to have it Macron ahead by 23.5% to 22.08%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2017, 06:35:54 PM »

The result map of Creuse

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/creuse/

is really fun.  All 4 candidates won around 1/4 of the districts each.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2017, 06:53:53 PM »

I had thought the markets had priced in a Macron victory weeks ago.  It seems it did not.  The markets are in Risk On mode as soon real results came in.  EUR up 1.4% while haven assets like JPY and Gold are down .75% and 0.80% respectively.  Dow futures are up 0.8% and Nikkei futures are up 1.5%.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2017, 06:55:59 PM »

I was certain that Hamon was going to drop out the day before the election and endorse Mélenchon.  I wonder if he did would Mélenchon have surged into the second place?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2017, 06:08:30 AM »

Opinionway poll has Macron Seen Defeating Le Pen 61%-39%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2017, 08:11:22 AM »

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2017, 08:33:05 AM »


I think the wholesale defection of MoDem, UDI and PRG to EM are givens. A large portion of prominent PS'ers on the right of the party will also run under the EM banner (e.g., Valls), as will a large portion of prominent LR'ers on the left of the party (e.g., Juppe, Baroin). It's unclear whether Hamon will get to carry on the banner of the rump left of PS or if that task will fall to someone else; it is clear that Sarkozy will come back and lead the rump right of LR. I think it is unlikely that Melenchon and the PS reconcile, so Melenchon will also lead his own left-wing list, though likely without NPA, who may work with the rump PS. EELV I think will split, with some supporting Macron and others supporting the rump PS or possibly Melenchon depending on what he is willing to offer them.

Ultimately the EM coalition will get a huge majority as EM should win a runoff vs. any other party pretty much everywhere (and there will be a lot of EM v. FN runoffs, which will be a particularly easy walk for EM). The rump PS list could get close to completely wiped out unless the unlikely happens and they work with Melenchon as they are unlikely to even make it to many runoffs with the left-wing vote fragmented. Melenchon's list may do somewhat better (they are generally probably best positioned "party" in runoffs vs. EM, at least in areas already sympathetic to the left) but will also struggle to make it to many runoffs. Rump LR will also do quite badly as it hard to see them winning many runoffs against EM.

That said, the EM coalition's majority will be fractious, fragile and hard to govern despite its enormous size.

Yes. that is another path, break PS and LR.  If he can pull that off then for sure with rump PS, rump LR, FG, and FN all running separately a Macron  block would win a crushing majority.  I guess the main reason I did not give much weight to this scenario is that a coalitions of defectors would be factious at best and could melt away if the going gets tough.  
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2017, 11:13:34 AM »

Ifop Daily Poll: Macron Seen Beating Le Pen 60%-40% in 2nd Round
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.031 seconds with 12 queries.