France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 105544 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« on: April 23, 2017, 09:07:13 PM »

Too lazy to read all this. What areas did Fillon win and why? What areas did Melenchon win and why?

Who won all the weird territories?
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 11:10:11 PM »

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2017, 01:28:30 AM »

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?

I think it is almost certain that Melenchon won the Muslim vote given the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and also in NW Marseille, NE Paris and other patches of Muslim concentration, such as the commune of Trappes in Yvelines, though it's also clear that in at least some of these places, Hamon did abnormally well, and I think it is probably the case that Melenchon did less well with Muslims in these places than with non-Muslims (it just so happens that the most Melenchon-friendly non-Muslim voters tend to live in areas with a relatively high concentration of Muslims - not terribly surprising). That said, Macron also did well in Muslim areas for the most part, especially for a candidate running as a centrist rather than a left-winger.

Who are these Melenchon-friendly non-Muslims living in Muslim areas?

In America, White Bernie supporting college students often live in minority areas. Are they those kind of people? Hipsters?

Or are they just normie poor people who live in Muslim areas because they can't afford better?
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2017, 01:30:26 AM »

Also odd that in America, our minorities went with the centrist Hillary over the left-wing Bernie, while in France, minorities went with the more left-wing candidate.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2017, 01:55:51 AM »

Also odd that in America, our minorities went with the centrist Hillary over the left-wing Bernie, while in France, minorities went with the more left-wing candidate.
The thing is, Bernie tended to do well with Muslims in America. I don't have exit polling data for that, but Bernie did win Dearborn, MI with its large Arab population. It's the Black, and to a lesser degree the Hispanic vote that did him in.

Yeah, I was talking mostly about Black people. Of course, American Muslims have a much different economic profile than French Muslims.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2017, 11:29:33 PM »

Question, if there was a generic candidate of the right out there, without any personal baggage, who was running on Le Pens platform, but wasn't associated at all with the FN, would they be perceived as on the far right?  And would such a candidate have a chance of winning.  Before his personal baggage was exposed, it seemed that on immigration Fillon was coming fairly close to Le Pen politically.

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing deported all illegals when he was president but that was back in the 70s when such a thing was well within the Overton window. Today he would be considered literally Hitler and would probably get bombed by NATO and put on trail in The Hague.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2017, 05:33:30 PM »

The two factions of NF are on a collision course and my guess is, it'll cause some serious damage.

Who is more popular at this point, the FN or MLP? Might it be useful to let her dad and the TradCaths just have the corpse of the FN and then go on to found a new party less weighed down by that baggage?
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2017, 05:33:57 PM »

The Serbian Progressive Party option, as it were.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2017, 09:14:24 PM »

What do you mean "two points from having it all"? Even I Melenchon had snuck ahead of LePen and made it into the runoff he would have been crushed by Macron by an even bigger margin than he will have against LePen'

They wouldn't have had to compromise themselves by voting for a candidate they viewed as insufficiently radical though. Most leftists consider that a far bigger victory than actually winning an election.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2017, 01:27:35 PM »

Nazi = anyone who opposes open borders
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2017, 01:58:38 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2017, 02:58:10 PM by Famous Mortimer »

this is just stupid propaganda.  She has flaws but is by no means a Nazi.

don't choke on words.

her party was built to run on a fascist message, her dad is a literal fascist, they have problems with holocaust-denials again and again and only changed recently from classical "old right" neo-nazism to cool, hip, new trendy "neo-rightism", even while big parts of the party, including her niece, didn't get the message.

besides the fact, that she is dangerous for the whole country and continent anyway.

Basically all the connections between Le Pen and fascism are based on cultural signifiers, not policy. Additionally, they are cultural signifiers she no longer even embraces!

What "Nazi" POLICIES do people actually think Le Pen would enact if she won? Deporting illegal immigrants and disallowing additional immigration are the only ones and those aren't even inherently fascist.  
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2017, 02:38:32 PM »

do I really have to pull up her history, the National Front, the history of the LePens, and their Russian connections and all that stuff to demonstrate my point? It's such a time suck but if you insist I would be happy to demonstrate about Madam LePen.

Why would you need to pull up the history of the National Front?

1) Everyone on this board already knows it.

2) No one is disputing your version of it.

3) No one is asking about it.

I'm asking about what fascist POLICIES Le Pen is advocating. I'm not asking about her historic associations.

The same applies with her connections to Russia. Everyone knows it. No one is disputing it. Unlike her cultural associations with fascism, it's not even a bad thing.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2017, 02:47:24 PM »

Unlike her cultural associations with fascism, it's not even a bad thing.

modern putinism is quite close to crypto-fascism or at least a very religious-nationalistic kind of dictatorship, which kills and jails its enemies and everyone who is seemingly "tainting" their values.

Is Le Pen advocating Putinism for France or is she just in favor of letting Russia do it's thing. The answer is the latter. That's neutral at worst.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2017, 02:51:19 PM »

Note I said Nazi not fascistic. I pointedly called her a Neo Nazi for specific reasons, per se the long anti-semitic connotations. There is also a strong illiberal bent with Madam LePen which I would be happy to demonstrate this evening. The poster TheSaint denied her being a Nazi; I'm contesting that and saying she definitely has exhibited serious illiberal and Neo Nazi behavior.

I'll be happy to put up a post with this information if y'all would give me a few hours.

I suspect this is going to be a bunch of articles about how she doesn't want to give Israel special treatment and she doesn't want to exempt Jews from secular laws that all non-Jews have to follow.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2017, 04:05:14 PM »

    We know that both candidates are supporters of going to proportional representation for National Assembly elections, but unfortunately Le Pen now supports a majority bonus (like in Greece  I believe), but what about Fabulous Macron, has he said exactly what type of PR he supports, and has he said anything about it recently?

Haha, actually majority bonus is a classically fascist policy. I will concede that.

I think Macron only supported PR because he started out as a minor party candidate. Once he is in power, and especially if he gets a workable majority in the parliament, he will forget about the issue.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2017, 05:20:35 PM »

Actually it's a receipt for stability. Elections that never have definitive winners and always result in neo-liberal grand coalitions, the current European norm, are the receipt for chaos.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2017, 06:06:08 PM »

A complete mess? There's like a 90% chance of a majority government.
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