France 2017: Results Thread
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jaichind
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« Reply #1625 on: May 09, 2017, 06:35:26 AM »

It seems that there is positive correlation between increase in abstention and first round combined Fillon/Melenchon vote.



But going against conventional wisdom there is negative correlation between first round combined Melenchon/Fillon vote and blank/invalid in the second round.

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jaichind
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« Reply #1626 on: May 09, 2017, 06:39:56 AM »

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.
How many triangulaires and quadrangulaires are estimed for legislative elections? If turnout is high, we can have even quinquangulaires.

It seems that in each seat it will be REM vs LR-UDI vs FN vs PG/FI vs PS-EELV vs DLF vs PCF

I thought that FN and DLF was going to have an alliance.  I guess not.  There might be some sort of possible alliance between PCF and PG/FI but that seems unlikely.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1627 on: May 09, 2017, 06:59:08 AM »

Fun side-fact:

Macron's winning margin over Le Pen (32.2%) was the same as Hillary's winning margin over Trump in Hawaii (32.2%).

CA for slightly closer (H+30%).

Vienna was VdB+31.4%.

Where can I find the results by... precinct(?) for overseas voters?

I guess there was a link from an embassy somwhere in this thread which listed all the results for each country. You need to check the pages after round 1.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1628 on: May 09, 2017, 07:46:22 AM »

It seems that there is positive correlation between increase in abstention and first round combined Fillon/Melenchon vote.



But going against conventional wisdom there is negative correlation between first round combined Melenchon/Fillon vote and blank/invalid in the second round.



The Communes with the highest abstention (in Metropolitan France) were -

Vaulx-en-Velin - 43.2%
Behren-lès-Forbach - 41.6%
Gaillard - 40.6% (my neigbhbours Cheesy)
Roubaix - 39.8%

All are working class Banlieues with big migrant populations; which are exactly the sort of places you would expect to have high abstention (as opposed to blank or nul votes).

I can see this would correlate to a high Mélenchon vote; and even to a relatively high Fillon one as these sorts of areas would hardly be expected to be Le Pen friendly. Gaillard gave Fillon 23% in the first round for example.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1629 on: May 09, 2017, 09:48:52 AM »

Fun side-fact:

Macron's winning margin over Le Pen (32.2%) was the same as Hillary's winning margin over Trump in Hawaii (32.2%).

CA for slightly closer (H+30%).

Vienna was VdB+31.4%.

Where can I find the results by... precinct(?) for overseas voters?

On this link you can find a clickable map for results by country and PDF for results by country, by consulate areas and I guess their overseas legislative constituencies.

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/services-aux-citoyens/actualites/article/election-presidentielle-retrouvez-les-resultats-du-second-tour-pour-les
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Mike88
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« Reply #1630 on: May 09, 2017, 10:02:41 AM »

Results from Portugal:

3,484 85.7% Macron
   582 14.3% Le Pen

   226   5.3% Blank/ Invalid

4,292 32.7% Turnout
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1631 on: May 09, 2017, 10:04:11 AM »

Interesting: Austrian-Frenchies had one of the highest turnouts in Europe or worldwide: 63%.

Macron beat Le Pen 93-7.
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
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« Reply #1632 on: May 09, 2017, 01:22:43 PM »

Marine won only two "consular circunscriptions"
Damascus, Syria (9 voters to Macron's 5)
Yekaterinburg, Russia (4-3)
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Hydera
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« Reply #1633 on: May 09, 2017, 01:42:13 PM »

Le Pen got 20% of the vote in the LA consulate.

ffs
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1634 on: May 09, 2017, 02:20:18 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2017, 02:49:22 PM by Sorenroy »

I made a quick map with Google Sheets. I'll try to make a better one when I get home, but here's a basic one:



Grey indicates that there was no voting locations within that country. The only acceptations to this were Tajikistan and Yemen, where voting places were provided but no one showed up, and Burma, where Google Sheets did not recognize the current name of the country (it voted 246-35, or 88%-12%, for Macron).
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SPQR
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« Reply #1635 on: May 09, 2017, 02:27:47 PM »

95% for Macron in UK, with a high number of voters and a high turnout.
Those who are experiencing exit from the EU don't want to get anywhere close to it...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1636 on: May 09, 2017, 02:35:39 PM »

Somehow weird that Congo-Brazzaville doesn't have any French votes - considering it was a French colony. I thought there'd be at least a few French people left there.

The other grey areas are understandable though.
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shua
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« Reply #1637 on: May 09, 2017, 02:41:16 PM »

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

Probably reasonably close to a majority of those were Melenchon voters, though a fair number were probably Fillon voters as well, with some Hamon and DuPont-Aignan voters and of course a large portion of the people who voted for fringe candidates in the first round. Plus 2.57% cast blank or null ballots in the first round already.

This is from polling results of those who supported the top 5 candidates in the first round:
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1638 on: May 09, 2017, 02:43:44 PM »

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

Probably reasonably close to a majority of those were Melenchon voters, though a fair number were probably Fillon voters as well, with some Hamon and DuPont-Aignan voters and of course a large portion of the people who voted for fringe candidates in the first round. Plus 2.57% cast blank or null ballots in the first round already.

This is from polling results of those who supported the top 5 candidates in the first round:


That's not everyone who voted blank/null, though. One, it includes abstentions as well as blank/null votes. Two, it doesn't include anyone who voted for other candidates in the first round than those listed (which was nearly 10% of the vote). Three, it doesn't include people who voted blank/null in the first round (which was another 2.5%).
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1639 on: May 09, 2017, 02:44:29 PM »

Somehow weird that Congo-Brazzaville doesn't have any French votes - considering it was a French colony. I thought there'd be at least a few French people left there.

The other grey areas are understandable though.

It's not that there were no voters, it's that there was no polling place within the country (I think we're both talking about the Republic of the Congo). The only two countries that had open voting locations that also had zero voters were Tajikistan and Yemen.
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Alex
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« Reply #1640 on: May 09, 2017, 03:51:54 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2017, 03:54:04 PM by Alex »

I made a quick map with Google Sheets. I'll try to make a better one when I get home, but here's a basic one:



Grey indicates that there was no voting locations within that country. The only acceptations to this were Tajikistan and Yemen, where voting places were provided but no one showed up, and Burma, where Google Sheets did not recognize the current name of the country (it voted 246-35, or 88%-12%, for Macron).

There were voting locations in Asuncion, Paraguay, but for some reason it's considered part of Argentina for voting purposes, under the name Assomption
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1641 on: May 09, 2017, 05:41:30 PM »

I made a quick map with Google Sheets. I'll try to make a better one when I get home, but here's a basic one:



Grey indicates that there was no voting locations within that country. The only acceptations to this were Tajikistan and Yemen, where voting places were provided but no one showed up, and Burma, where Google Sheets did not recognize the current name of the country (it voted 246-35, or 88%-12%, for Macron).

Here's another image. The only difference is that I included Burma, and the scale now is from roughly 32.2%-100%. This makes it so that orange is above the overall percentage for Macron, and blue is below.



As a note, French Guiana went to Macron 21,769-11,777 (65%-35%)

There were voting locations in Asuncion, Paraguay, but for some reason it's considered part of Argentina for voting purposes, under the name Assomption

That makes Paraguay (the landlocked country in South America) 200-116 (63%-37%) Macron.



Source (thanks Poirot): http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/services-aux-citoyens/actualites/article/election-presidentielle-retrouvez-les-resultats-du-second-tour-pour-les
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Poirot
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« Reply #1642 on: May 09, 2017, 08:51:08 PM »

Le Pen got 20% of the vote in the LA consulate.

I think it's Miami consulate constituency 20%, LA 11%.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1643 on: May 10, 2017, 01:16:40 AM »

Here's a measure of FBM's mandate in historical perspective. The percentage of registered voters won by major candidates in every election since 1965, ranked.

First round:
- De Gaulle 1965: 37.45%
- Mitterrand 1974: 36.09%
- Pompidou 1969: 34.06%
- Giscard 1974: 27.21%
- Mitterrand 1988: 27.19%
- Mitterrand 1965: 26.61%
- Sarkozy 2007: 25.74%
- Giscard 1981: 22.59%
- Hollande 2012: 22.32%
- Royal 2007: 21.36%
- Sarkozy 2012: 21.19%
- Mitterrand 1981: 20.62%
- Macron 2017: 18.19%
- Poher 1969: 17.85%
- Jospin 1995: 17.75%
- Duclos 1969: 16.29%
- Le Pen 2017: 16.14%
- Chirac 1988: 15.91%
- Chirac 1995: 15.87%
- Bayrou 2007: 15.34%
- Fillon 2017: 15.16%
- Mélenchon 2017: 14.84%
- Chirac 1981: 14.36%
- Balladur 1995: 14.15%
- Le Pen 2012: 13.95%
- Chirac 2002: 13.75%
- Barre 1988: 13.19%
- Lecanuet 1965: 13.06%
- Chaban-Delmas 1974: 12.61%
- Marchais 1981: 12.24%
- Le Pen 2002: 11.66%
- Le Pen 1988: 11.46%
- Le Pen 1995: 11.43%
- Jospin 2002: 11.19%

Second round:
- Chirac 2002: 62.00%
- De Gaulle 1965: 45.27%
- Giscard 1974: 43.78%
- Mitterrand 1988: 43.76%
- Macron 2017: 43.63%
- Mitterrand 1981: 43.16%
- Sarkozy 2007: 42.68%
- Mitterrand 1974: 42.39%
- Giscard 1981: 40.23%
- Chirac 1995: 39.43%
- Hollande 2012: 39.08%
- Royal 2007: 37.75%
- Pompidou 1969: 37.51%
- Chirac 1988: 37.25%
- Mitterrand 1965: 36.74%
- Sarkozy 2012: 36.60%
- Jospin 1995: 35.47%
- Poher 1969: 26.93%
- Le Pen 2017: 22.38%
- Le Pen 2002: 13.41%

So, depending on how you look at it, FBM's performance is either mediocre or solid by historical standards.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1644 on: May 10, 2017, 01:20:36 AM »

He did better winning a percentage of all voters in the second round than Hollande, Sarko in 2007 and Mitterrand in 81. I'm actually impressed.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1645 on: May 10, 2017, 01:23:11 AM »

He did better winning a percentage of all voters in the second round than Hollande, Sarko in 2007 and Mitterrand in 81. I'm actually impressed.

The other way to look at it is that he did 18 points worse than the only other person who faced a far-right candidate.
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #1646 on: May 10, 2017, 02:34:41 AM »

He did better winning a percentage of all voters in the second round than Hollande, Sarko in 2007 and Mitterrand in 81. I'm actually impressed.

The other way to look at it is that he did 18 points worse than the only other person who faced a far-right candidate.
...in a completely different world scenario...
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1647 on: May 10, 2017, 09:23:40 AM »

By the way, why do the results for overseas voting locations make a differentiation between Israel and Jerusalem?
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windjammer
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« Reply #1648 on: May 10, 2017, 09:29:39 AM »

By the way, why do the results for overseas voting locations make a differentiation between Israel and Jerusalem?
Because I guess Jerusalem isn't part of Israël???
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1649 on: May 10, 2017, 09:39:55 AM »

By the way, why do the results for overseas voting locations make a differentiation between Israel and Jerusalem?
Because I guess Jerusalem isn't part of Israël???

Am I missing something here? Is Jerusalem not the capital of Israel? Everything else on the webpage is by country, why is there a distinction? Is Jerusalem there to represent Palestine?
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