France 2017: Results Thread
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  France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 139960 times)
Hydera
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« Reply #1400 on: May 07, 2017, 01:41:15 PM »
« edited: May 07, 2017, 01:45:20 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

This election was a weaker 2002 result, where the large mainstream of the French electorate united (for the most part) against the extreme right. Very impressive for Marine though, to improve by about double what her father got 15 years ago. I'm gonna assume, based on the increasing social liberalism of Western electorates, that Jean-Marie would've done worse in 2017 than he did in 2002. That means Marine had to break through even further than her father could have.

I'm ready to say that it's not all that impressive, for a couple of reasons.

1. Marine revamped her party, kicking her Nazi dad out of the party and making it so that many voters could imagine voting for it.
2. The political establishment HAD failed the people of France time and time again with Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Francois Hollande.
3. Le Pen polled as high as 32% in the first round during 2013-2015.
4. The left was in total dissary, the right considered coalescing around SARKOZY and ultimately coalesced around someone who did a lot of worse.
5. early polls had Le Pen up to 41%, and Macron was considered not that great and an empty movement that would collapse.






6. The FN reaching second round was really unexpected.
7. Also Jean-marie Le Pen made many racist and holocaust denial remarks that was widely condemned.
8. Plus there was no Melenchon like figure on the left. Every leftwing figure in 2002 even the communists called for a vote for Chirac to block Le Pen. Compared to melenchon who is silent.
9. Marine le pen made a lot of steps to "normalize" the FN for the public by expelling openly racist FN figures even her father and enforced stronger party standards to prevent members from giving racist statements that characterized the FN during her father. As a result 41% of the french public in recent polls considered the FN a "normal regular party" and 43% consider it a threat to the republic in contrast to 2002.

10. And also the global economic recession of 2008 has meant a rise in unemployment(despite growth in employment). Which has caused an increase in dissatisfaction in the economy, allowing for the FN to grow and making the Left to abstain more compared to 2002.

11. And also the terrorist attacks in recent years which has boosted support for the FN especially amongst the mainstream conservative/center-right.


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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1401 on: May 07, 2017, 01:42:43 PM »

Omg, a black FN MP is on France 24 right now, that is very strange, why would a minority be a part of such filth.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1402 on: May 07, 2017, 01:43:35 PM »

2nd round vote by 1st round voters:



Not surprising, large chunk of the left throwing a tantrum there. "Marcon and LePen are the sames!!1!1!1".

53% of Mélenchon voters supported FBM, but only 48% of Fillon's did, but of course a right-winger like you only takes issue with the former. Roll Eyes

Generally the right always turns out, the left doesn't. It goes for far stricter purity tests so they'd prefer LePen winning than holding their nose and making sure it doesn't happen. White privilege at it's finest!

"Vote for our awful candidate who violates your values and convictions or else we'll invoke the White Privilege card against you!!!"

I'd say there is a big difference - you can imagine some people voting Fillon would actually consider themselves more aligned with Le Pen than with Macron.

Melenchon voters on the other hand are just being silly when not backing Macron. Tongue
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JA
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« Reply #1403 on: May 07, 2017, 01:44:16 PM »

2nd round vote by 1st round voters:



Not surprising, large chunk of the left throwing a tantrum there. "Marcon and LePen are the sames!!1!1!1".

53% of Mélenchon voters supported FBM, but only 48% of Fillon's did, but of course a right-winger like you only takes issue with the former. Roll Eyes

Generally the right always turns out, the left doesn't. It goes for far stricter purity tests so they'd prefer LePen winning than holding their nose and making sure it doesn't happen. White privilege at it's finest!

"Vote for our awful candidate who violates your values and convictions or else we'll invoke the White Privilege card against you!!!"

Well you certainly don't see minorities doing that. They don't really have a choice, they know that one side wants them basically dead and the other doesn't, they may not like them but they'll still vote for him. You only see it with middle and well to do whites so I don't know how else you would describe it.

Ah yes, because there are zero non-Whites who voted third party or abstained in the American election or in the French election. And you know that how, exactly?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1404 on: May 07, 2017, 01:44:35 PM »

Incredible how well Norbert Hofer did compared with that woman.

If Chancellor Faymann didn't resign a few days earlier, then ...

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

No reason to eyeroll. Think about it: He lost with 49.7% of the vote and if unpopular Faymann didn't step down, he might have won. Well, not might have, he would have.

Not questioning your logic, just the placement of such analysis is strange as usual in a non-Austrian related thread.
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JA
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« Reply #1405 on: May 07, 2017, 01:46:08 PM »

2nd round vote by 1st round voters:



Not surprising, large chunk of the left throwing a tantrum there. "Marcon and LePen are the sames!!1!1!1".

53% of Mélenchon voters supported FBM, but only 48% of Fillon's did, but of course a right-winger like you only takes issue with the former. Roll Eyes

Generally the right always turns out, the left doesn't. It goes for far stricter purity tests so they'd prefer LePen winning than holding their nose and making sure it doesn't happen. White privilege at it's finest!

"Vote for our awful candidate who violates your values and convictions or else we'll invoke the White Privilege card against you!!!"

I'd say there is a big difference - you can imagine some people voting Fillon would actually consider themselves more aligned with Le Pen than with Macron.

Melenchon voters on the other hand are just being silly when not backing Macron. Tongue

Why? What did Macron offer that would be attractive to Melenchon voters? And don't mention Le Pen in your response; I don't want to hear how Macron was better as a reason.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1406 on: May 07, 2017, 01:46:17 PM »

Incredible how well Norbert Hofer did compared with that woman.

If Chancellor Faymann didn't resign a few days earlier, then ...

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

No reason to eyeroll. Think about it: He lost with 49.7% of the vote and if unpopular Faymann didn't step down, he might have won. Well, not might have, he would have.

Not questioning your logic, just the placement of such analysis is strange as usual in a non-Austrian related thread.

Only because it's relevant. People compare it all the time with Trump and Brexit, so a Hofer-comparison is also legitimate.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1407 on: May 07, 2017, 01:46:59 PM »

Looks like Le Pen might win Haute-Marne??? Might win a department or two after all
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Dereich
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« Reply #1408 on: May 07, 2017, 01:47:50 PM »

Time to get rid of the myth that nationalist choices always have better polling results than polls show. It actually works both ways: Brexit and Trump on one side but Le Pen and Hofer on the other. It only creates unpredictibility.

59-41 for Macron, with over 6 million votes counted, of some about 35 million expected.

Not just Le Pen and Hofer; according to this tweet by Nate Silver, this is the sixth European election in a row where the nationalist candidate under-performed their poll numbers.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1409 on: May 07, 2017, 01:48:41 PM »

2nd round vote by 1st round voters:



Not surprising, large chunk of the left throwing a tantrum there. "Marcon and LePen are the sames!!1!1!1".

53% of Mélenchon voters supported FBM, but only 48% of Fillon's did, but of course a right-winger like you only takes issue with the former. Roll Eyes

Generally the right always turns out, the left doesn't. It goes for far stricter purity tests so they'd prefer LePen winning than holding their nose and making sure it doesn't happen. White privilege at it's finest!

"Vote for our awful candidate who violates your values and convictions or else we'll invoke the White Privilege card against you!!!"

I'd say there is a big difference - you can imagine some people voting Fillon would actually consider themselves more aligned with Le Pen than with Macron.

Melenchon voters on the other hand are just being silly when not backing Macron. Tongue

Why? What did Macron offer that would be attractive to Melenchon voters? And don't mention Le Pen in your response; I don't want to hear how Macron was better as a reason.

If you're left you should prefer a liberal to a fascist. If you're a conservative it's plausible you might prefer a fascist. Also, my answer was quite literally tongue-in-cheek. Wink
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1410 on: May 07, 2017, 01:48:59 PM »

Incredible how well Norbert Hofer did compared with that woman.

If Chancellor Faymann didn't resign a few days earlier, then ...

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

No reason to eyeroll. Think about it: He lost with 49.7% of the vote and if unpopular Faymann didn't step down, he might have won. Well, not might have, he would have.

Not questioning your logic, just the placement of such analysis is strange as usual in a non-Austrian related thread.

Only because it's relevant. People compare it all the time with Trump and Brexit, so a Hofer-comparison is also legitimate.
Its not.  You don't have to compare everything which occurs to what has occurred in Austria.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #1411 on: May 07, 2017, 01:49:14 PM »

Omg, a black FN MP is on France 24 right now, that is very strange, why would a minority be a part of such filth.

Maybe FN fits his beliefs, you know minorities aren't a monolithic group thinking entities like you on the left think they are. Doesn't he have the right to think the way he wants or only the way you want him
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1412 on: May 07, 2017, 01:49:31 PM »

Time to get rid of the myth that nationalist choices always have better polling results than polls show. It actually works both ways: Brexit and Trump on one side but Le Pen and Hofer on the other. It only creates unpredictibility.

59-41 for Macron, with over 6 million votes counted, of some about 35 million expected.

Not just Le Pen and Hofer; according to this tweet by Nate Silver, this is the sixth European election in a row where the nationalist candidate under-performed their poll numbers.

Not a surprise: People around here see the calamity that is Trump and fear for their country's reputation abroad.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1413 on: May 07, 2017, 01:51:27 PM »

if austria is relevant right now then only cause even a far-right-friendly country like austria rejected the far right since trump's technical victory and the rest of europe has followed through with it.

congratulations everyone, italy is my only mental problem child right now.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1414 on: May 07, 2017, 01:52:12 PM »

Omg, a black FN MP is on France 24 right now, that is very strange, why would a minority be a part of such filth.

Maybe FN fits his beliefs, you know minorities aren't a monolithic group thinking entities like you on the left think they are. Doesn't he have the right to think the way he wants or only the way you want him

Not really a leftist but m'kay, and as a minority I am fully aware of that, but the FN platform actively goes against minorities and the like, but I am not going to debate that.
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JA
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« Reply #1415 on: May 07, 2017, 01:52:52 PM »

Time to get rid of the myth that nationalist choices always have better polling results than polls show. It actually works both ways: Brexit and Trump on one side but Le Pen and Hofer on the other. It only creates unpredictibility.

59-41 for Macron, with over 6 million votes counted, of some about 35 million expected.

Not just Le Pen and Hofer; according to this tweet by Nate Silver, this is the sixth European election in a row where the nationalist candidate under-performed their poll numbers.

It's wonderful to see the far-right sputtering in Europe and unable to even win a plurality in the American Presidential Election. However, part of the reason seems to be the co-opting of far-right rhetoric and policies by more mainstream parties, such as the Dutch VVD, the Republicans with Fillon in France, the Tories in the UK, and almost all mainstream parties in Denmark.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1416 on: May 07, 2017, 01:54:37 PM »

Omg, a black FN MP is on France 24 right now, that is very strange, why would a minority be a part of such filth.

they are always cause......black people are normal but muslims are not and bla....

and ofc, righties love identity politics, so those candidates usually are going public.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1417 on: May 07, 2017, 01:56:03 PM »

Anyways I have Le Pen up in 5 departments right now (Haute-Marne, Ardennes, Aisne, and Oise, and Aube) 2 of those are almost done counting with roughly 4% le pen wins, 2 of them have barely anything so take it with a grain of salt as of now
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JA
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« Reply #1418 on: May 07, 2017, 01:56:33 PM »

2nd round vote by 1st round voters:



Not surprising, large chunk of the left throwing a tantrum there. "Marcon and LePen are the sames!!1!1!1".

53% of Mélenchon voters supported FBM, but only 48% of Fillon's did, but of course a right-winger like you only takes issue with the former. Roll Eyes

Generally the right always turns out, the left doesn't. It goes for far stricter purity tests so they'd prefer LePen winning than holding their nose and making sure it doesn't happen. White privilege at it's finest!

"Vote for our awful candidate who violates your values and convictions or else we'll invoke the White Privilege card against you!!!"

I'd say there is a big difference - you can imagine some people voting Fillon would actually consider themselves more aligned with Le Pen than with Macron.

Melenchon voters on the other hand are just being silly when not backing Macron. Tongue

Why? What did Macron offer that would be attractive to Melenchon voters? And don't mention Le Pen in your response; I don't want to hear how Macron was better as a reason.

If you're left you should prefer a liberal to a fascist. If you're a conservative it's plausible you might prefer a fascist. Also, my answer was quite literally tongue-in-cheek. Wink

Sorry about that, it's a common argument made and the internet is a notoriously difficult place to detect sarcasm. But yes, in general a liberal is preferable to a fascist. I don't deny being very happy to see Le Pen routed like this. Unfortunately, it also means Macron, with his awful economic agenda, will become President. Time for the French left to turnout for the parliamentary elections.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1419 on: May 07, 2017, 01:57:07 PM »

Anyways I have Le Pen up in 5 departments right now (Haute-Marne, Ardennes, Aisne, and Oise, and Aube) 2 of those are almost done counting with roughly 4% le pen wins, 2 of them have barely anything so take it with a grain of salt as of now
also narrowly ahead in Somme, Nord, Pas de Calais so make that 7 those 3 are barely counted
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Donnie
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« Reply #1420 on: May 07, 2017, 01:58:11 PM »

April 23.....


Macron is surging in PredictIt's most votes in first round market:

Macron - 65% (+26)
Le Pen - 35% (-25)
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1421 on: May 07, 2017, 01:58:25 PM »

Time to get rid of the myth that nationalist choices always have better polling results than polls show. It actually works both ways: Brexit and Trump on one side but Le Pen and Hofer on the other. It only creates unpredictibility.

59-41 for Macron, with over 6 million votes counted, of some about 35 million expected.

Not just Le Pen and Hofer; according to this tweet by Nate Silver, this is the sixth European election in a row where the nationalist candidate under-performed their poll numbers.

It's wonderful to see the far-right sputtering in Europe and unable to even win a plurality in the American Presidential Election. However, part of the reason seems to be the co-opting of far-right rhetoric and policies by more mainstream parties, such as the Dutch VVD, the Republicans with Fillon in France, the Tories in the UK, and almost all mainstream parties in Denmark.

yeah, the new right is making progress and in-roads but over here we are much...curious...and feel russian influence more directly.

we europeans need an european identity and further integration to tackle our current problems, also regarding our welfare states, otherwise this won't end good.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1422 on: May 07, 2017, 01:58:32 PM »

With 79% of Communes reporting:

Macron:
5,681,080 votes - 59.8%

Le Pen:
3,816,442 - 40.2%
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1423 on: May 07, 2017, 01:58:59 PM »

jaichind is nowhere to be seen.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1424 on: May 07, 2017, 01:59:23 PM »

Disgusting
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