France 2017: Results Thread
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  France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140011 times)
Sorenroy
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« Reply #1225 on: May 07, 2017, 12:04:10 AM »

The ballots are called "bulletins" and are actually small cards with one for each candidate. When you go up to vote, you take all of them, go into the booth, and insert the candidate for whom you wish to vote into the envelope. I suppose you trash the rest!

Thanks for the info! It seems like that is incredibly wasteful (both of paper and money), especially in elections with more than two people. That's tens of millions of waisted "bulletins" every election.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1226 on: May 07, 2017, 12:05:04 AM »

I assume that ca. 600k French abroad (excl. Overseas territories) will vote and Macron gets 85% of their vote and net more than 400k votes ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1227 on: May 07, 2017, 12:18:20 AM »

Fun comparison:

France will have some 38 million votes cast today.

CA and TX, who also have a population of 67 million, had just 23.6 million votes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1228 on: May 07, 2017, 01:00:27 AM »

Polls are now open in France.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1229 on: May 07, 2017, 01:05:18 AM »

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1230 on: May 07, 2017, 01:08:24 AM »

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1231 on: May 07, 2017, 01:09:24 AM »

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.

The Belgian/Swiss stuff is usually not fake ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1232 on: May 07, 2017, 02:46:56 AM »

Historical turnout figures for each department at 12:00 and 17:00 (Tour 2 is the important one):

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-6-les-taux-de-participation-au-scrutin-de-l-election-presidentielle-de-2002-2007-et-2012-par-departement-en-metropole

And the turnout figures by department in round 1:

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Actualites/L-actu-du-Ministere/Election-du-president-de-la-Republique-2017-Premier-tour-Taux-de-participation-a-17h
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1233 on: May 07, 2017, 03:19:03 AM »

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.

The Belgian/Swiss stuff is usually not fake ...

They were pretty hopelessely wrong in the first round
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1234 on: May 07, 2017, 03:31:45 AM »


It's not noon yet in France. So no turnout figures yet ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1235 on: May 07, 2017, 04:15:56 AM »

According to live Twitter reports of various precincts, turnout so far seems to be stable (maybe slightly less than in the 1st round). The plurality of reports show a decrease of 1-2%, but some also have higher turnout.

In 1 hour, the Interior Ministry will release official estimates for noon.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #1236 on: May 07, 2017, 04:42:26 AM »

Turnout overseas
- French Polynesia: 43% (+4 compared to the first round)
- Nouvelle Calédonie: at 5pm, 45.44% (+3.6)
- Wallis et Futuna: at 5pm, 53.72% (+5.57)
- La Réunion: at noon, 22.55% (+3.61)
- Mayotte: at noon, 17.74% (+1)
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Tirnam
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« Reply #1237 on: May 07, 2017, 05:08:24 AM »

Turnout at noon: 28.23% (-0.3)
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1238 on: May 07, 2017, 05:35:52 AM »

Even if polls were off by that much, Macron still wins. Michigan was apparently 58-39, or 19.5 points of error (Sanders won by a very small margin, half a point or so).

Polls for France currently average 60-40 in a best case scenario for Le Pen. Add all the errors up and you end up with something like 50.25 Macron-49.75 Le Pen.

An extremely narrow victory sure, but still
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1239 on: May 07, 2017, 05:36:34 AM »

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.

The Belgian/Swiss stuff is usually not fake ...

They were pretty hopelessely wrong in the first round

Yeah, I remember one predicting Melenchon-Macron and getting happy.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1240 on: May 07, 2017, 06:27:27 AM »

Noon turnout comparisons (excl. overseas):

Le Pen's 10 best departments in round 1 (first round turnout, compared with second round turnout)

27.63 - 28.30 Aisne (+0.67)
23.35 - 28.61 Pas-de-Calais (+5.26)
35.14 - 35.93 Haute-Marne (+0.79)
24.32 - 21.02 Ardennes (-3.30)
30.88 - 30.79 Meuse (-0.09)
30.78 - 27.87 Haute-Saône (-2.91)
26.30 - 25.63 Oise (-0.67)
23.47 - 27.57 Vaucluse (+4.10)
30.42 - 31.32 Var (+0.90)
29.07 - 32.49 Somme (+3.42)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1241 on: May 07, 2017, 06:37:24 AM »

Macron's 10 best departments in round 1 (first round turnout, compared with second round turnout)

24.24 - 21.79 Paris (-2.45)
23.93 - 22.59 Hauts-de-Seine (-1.34)
27.01 - 29.30 Ille-et-Vilaine (+2.29)
24.80 - 26.42 Finistère (+1.62)
27.49 - 22.53 Yvelines (-4.96)
25.54 - 27.65 Loire-Atlantique (+2.11)
21.21 - 19.84 Val-de-Marne (-1.37)
29.52 - 29.79 Côtes-d'Armor (+0.27)
28.84 - 30.53 Morbihan (+1.69)
35.91 - 31.07 Puy-de-Dôme (-4.84)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1242 on: May 07, 2017, 06:46:32 AM »

In Le Pen's 5 best departments from round 1, with the most absolute votes, turnout so far is stable in Nord (her best region with 382.000 votes), down a lot in Bouches-du-Rhône, and up moderately in Pas-de-Calais, Var and Seine-Maritime.

In Macron's 5 best departments from round 1, with the most absolute votes, turnout so far is down moderately in Paris (his best region with 375.000 votes), stable in Nord, down slightly in Hauts-de-Seine, up slightly in Rhône and also up moderately in Loire-Atlantique.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1243 on: May 07, 2017, 06:50:09 AM »

Melenchon's best department Seine-Saint-Denis has a massive drop in turnout (was at 23.93% in round 1, is just at 19.54% now).
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1244 on: May 07, 2017, 08:48:59 AM »

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.

The Belgian/Swiss stuff is usually not fake ...

They were pretty hopelessely wrong in the first round

They don't just pull the figures out of their arse. Pollsters are there already counting "illegal" exit polls and several scenario's show up. RTBF for example had 3 scenarios coming up to the deadline. One had Macron-Mélenchon (lol), the other two were pretty accurate.

Btw thanks Tender for these posts.
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mencken
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« Reply #1245 on: May 07, 2017, 08:56:09 AM »

Even if polls were off by that much, Macron still wins. Michigan was apparently 58-39, or 19.5 points of error (Sanders won by a very small margin, half a point or so).

Polls for France currently average 60-40 in a best case scenario for Le Pen. Add all the errors up and you end up with something like 50.25 Macron-49.75 Le Pen.

An extremely narrow victory sure, but still

He actually won by 1.4%, for one. For two, I was merely pointing out that the tails are fatter than you gentlemen give them credit for; the difference between 20% and 21% is negligible when we are talking about what should be >6 standard deviation events.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1246 on: May 07, 2017, 09:07:08 AM »



http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/06/did-macron-outsmart-campaign-hackers
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1247 on: May 07, 2017, 09:19:44 AM »

According to live Twitter reports of various precincts, turnout so far seems to be stable (maybe slightly less than in the 1st round). The plurality of reports show a decrease of 1-2%, but some also have higher turnout.

In 1 hour, the Interior Ministry will release official estimates for noon.

A quick check of Twitter precinct reports again shows that turnout is now down significantly in a plurality of reports (minus 2-6%). Some still see comparable turnout, but virtually none show an increase.

Let's see if the 5pm turnout report from the Interior Ministry shows the same.
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Intell
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« Reply #1248 on: May 07, 2017, 09:20:04 AM »

Melenchon top 10 departments and change in turnout, would be interesting
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1249 on: May 07, 2017, 09:22:14 AM »

Melenchon top 10 departments and change in turnout, would be interesting

I'll post full Top-10 numbers/comparisons for Macron/LePen/Fillon/Melenchon areas after the 5pm numbers are out.
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