France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 137901 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #1125 on: May 04, 2017, 03:43:08 PM »

Arguing about definitions is always a painfully futile argument. But a few things to remember about Le Pen:

 - She has an absolutelyt horrendus attitude towards minority groups, even if this isnt necessarily reflected in policyb
 - The FN still has some uncomfortable links with explicit white nationalists
 - She wants to cut taxes, and ultimately cut government spending. So much for "left wing" credentials.
 - She wants to destroy the EU, which is only ever going to benefit the big corporations by giving them even more free reign to rip off an exploit the rest of us

All of that makes here a worse prospect that Macron, regardless of his own completely horrible economic programme
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1126 on: May 04, 2017, 03:58:11 PM »

    We know that both candidates are supporters of going to proportional representation for National Assembly elections, but unfortunately Le Pen now supports a majority bonus (like in Greece  I believe), but what about Fabulous Macron, has he said exactly what type of PR he supports, and has he said anything about it recently?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1127 on: May 04, 2017, 04:05:14 PM »

    We know that both candidates are supporters of going to proportional representation for National Assembly elections, but unfortunately Le Pen now supports a majority bonus (like in Greece  I believe), but what about Fabulous Macron, has he said exactly what type of PR he supports, and has he said anything about it recently?

Haha, actually majority bonus is a classically fascist policy. I will concede that.

I think Macron only supported PR because he started out as a minor party candidate. Once he is in power, and especially if he gets a workable majority in the parliament, he will forget about the issue.
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DL
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« Reply #1128 on: May 04, 2017, 04:12:34 PM »

In the debate I think I heard Macron say that he favoured adding some "element" of proportionality...and also reducing the number of seats in the Assembly. i wonder if he might want to add a smallish number of "top up" seats so that smaller parties could get some representation?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1129 on: May 04, 2017, 04:58:18 PM »

I don't want a liberal majority in the Assembly, just a center right one that opposes Russia.
The Republicans will most likely not get a majority but will come pretty close, and since they won't be led by Fillon, they will most likely be more opposed to Russia.  Also, using current predictions, if you assume all En Marche! candidates are also opposed to Russia, the National Assembly will have a 449-out-of-577-seat extremely strong majority opposed to Russia, no matter the president.  It won't be majority center-right, though.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #1130 on: May 04, 2017, 05:06:01 PM »

Adding a huge bonus to the winning party in an otherwise "proportional" system is such a transparent ploy for power: With the left and non-far right likely not being keen to team up from the start, it would give the FN the best chance of ruling the country despite being hated by a clear majority of the country. It's Erdoğan-level BS and would be a recipe for chaos.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1131 on: May 04, 2017, 05:20:35 PM »

Actually it's a receipt for stability. Elections that never have definitive winners and always result in neo-liberal grand coalitions, the current European norm, are the receipt for chaos.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #1132 on: May 04, 2017, 05:38:12 PM »

Funny you should say that, because the only other European country with a non-proportional lower house is now a complete mess ever since they voted to leave the EU.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1133 on: May 04, 2017, 06:06:08 PM »

A complete mess? There's like a 90% chance of a majority government.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #1134 on: May 04, 2017, 06:32:01 PM »

I'm not talking about whether a single party has free reign over the country or not. The Brexit negotiations look like a train wreck in slow motion and the country might disintegrate over it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1135 on: May 04, 2017, 11:58:22 PM »

Elabe (100% post-debate)Sad

62% Macron (+3)
38% Le Pen (-3)

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/elections/apres-le-debat-presidentiel-emmanuel-macron-creuse-l-ecart-sur-marine-le-pen_1905272.html

It's over.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1136 on: May 05, 2017, 01:00:35 AM »

Suffolk University poll (pre-debate)Sad

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Do you feel the country is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track?

19% Right
68% Wrong

Favourable Ratings (French candidates)Sad

25-71 Hollande
42-54 Melenchon
33-62 Hamon
42-52 Macron
27-70 Fillon
27-69 Le Pen

12. In the election for president on May 7th, do you plan to vote for {ROTATE} Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen? ... {IF UNDECIDED} will you vote blank or are you undecided?

47% Macron
31% Le Pen
15% Blank/Neither
  7% Undecided

(excl. blank and undecided)

60% Macron
40% Le Pen

16. What is your opinion of the European Union – generally favorable or unfavorable?

65% favourable
31% unfavourable

17. Do you think France should vote to withdraw from the European Union like the United Kingdom did?

21% Yes
74% No

Favourable Ratings (Major international politicians)Sad

13-82 Trump
19-43 Xi
20-71 Putin
70-23 Merkel
16-35 Farage
90-08 Obama
34-41 May
31-21 Klaver

...

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http://suffolk.edu/news/71794.php#.WQwU_biaXgA
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1137 on: May 05, 2017, 01:02:40 AM »

I don't believe for a second that 52% of French people have a clue who Jesse Klaver is.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1138 on: May 05, 2017, 01:12:19 AM »

I don't believe for a second that 52% of French people have a clue who Jesse Klaver is.

Well, the question asks:

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So they will have an impression of him, just based on the poll information. And many just hear "Green-Left" and already have a positive or negative impression of that person.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1139 on: May 05, 2017, 01:24:56 AM »

Obama released a video explicitly endorsing Macron.

Here it is.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1140 on: May 05, 2017, 01:25:18 AM »

This just proves that pollsters are morons. What's the point of asking such a question if the respondent will answer based on superficial cues?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1141 on: May 05, 2017, 03:11:12 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2017, 03:13:03 AM by Rogier »

A complete mess? There's like a 90% chance of a majority government.

Indeed, France already has a majoritarian system.
Parliaments are supposed to represent the people, not deliver stable governments.
If you want stable governments you strenghten the executive.
France already has a strong executive, amd an electoral system that helps it massively.And the Vth Republic model was supposed to deliver a President who arbitrates the parliament, but instead was turned into a political vehicle by the Gaullists.

Le Pen is just trying to Orbanise the political landscape. This is the real danger of the RRWP. They have contempt for pluralism in democratic society.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #1142 on: May 05, 2017, 05:38:27 AM »

I don't want a liberal majority in the Assembly, just a center right one that opposes Russia.

...so you do want a liberal majority in the assembly then?
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Tirnam
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« Reply #1143 on: May 05, 2017, 05:43:48 AM »

OpinionWay (1/3 post-debate)
Macron: 62% (+1)
Le Pen: 38% (-1)

Ipsos (post-debate)
Macron: 61.5% (+2.5)
Le Pen: 38.5% (-2.5)

The attitude of Le Pen during the debate...
Worries you: 54% (even among Dupont-Aignan voters: 44%)
Reassures you: 15%
Neither: 31%

The attitude of Macron during the debate...
Worries you: 33%
Reassures you: 31%
Neither: 36%
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mvd10
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« Reply #1144 on: May 05, 2017, 06:26:09 AM »

So a pollster randomly ask the French their opinion about someone who got 9% of the vote in a Dutch election? GreenLeft came in fifth, Klaver is not a major international politician.

It's disgusting that Trump's approval rating is lower than Xi's or Putin's. Sure, Trump is terrible but he is not a brutal dictator (he probably dreams of becoming one though).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1145 on: May 05, 2017, 06:30:43 AM »

So a pollster randomly ask the French their opinion about someone who got 9% of the vote in a Dutch election? GreenLeft came in fifth, Klaver is not a major international politician.

It's disgusting that Trump's approval rating is lower than Xi's or Putin's. Sure, Trump is terrible but he is not a brutal dictator (he probably dreams of becoming one though).

I agree, they should have polled President Alexander Van der Bellen instead ...
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Tirnam
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« Reply #1146 on: May 05, 2017, 10:58:55 AM »

Final Ifop poll (2/3 post debate)

Macron: 63% (+2)
Le Pen: 37% (-2)
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1147 on: May 05, 2017, 11:05:03 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2017, 11:09:43 AM by Chairman (with limited role) of the 2020 Trump campaign »

Seems like Macron has the momentum.

What finished Le Pen off? Undecideds breaking for Macron now? Macron winning the debate? Le Pen plagiarizing Fillon's speech?
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DL
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« Reply #1148 on: May 05, 2017, 11:06:51 AM »

Its really great to see LePen pushed down into the 30s...she may even do worse than the final polls indicate since Macron does better with older and more educated voters who are more likely to vote. Also, her dreadful performance in the debate will likely demoralize her voters.

I look forward to seeing the voters of France administer a sledgehammer to her and smash her evil movement into a million shards of glass!!
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Tirnam
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« Reply #1149 on: May 05, 2017, 11:18:33 AM »

Seems like Macron has the momentum.

What finished Le Pen off? Undecideds breaking for Macron now? Macron winning the debate? Le Pen plagiarizing Fillon's speech?

I have two events in my mind. First her alliance with Dupont-Aignan, it was perceived first for a boost for her (gain in credibility etc.) but she did a major flip-flop on the euro (and later she did another flip-flop on retirement age). That stopped her momentum after the first week after the first round.
And of course the debate. It absolutely killed her. On the Ifop poll tonight only 35% say that she does a good campaign, it's a total collapse from a week ago.
In fact it's probably the first presidential debate in France that has a major impact on the race (if it's confirmed on the ballots of course).
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