France 2017: Results Thread

[Mr. Smith]

The last poll had Hamon's support going 50% to Melenchon, which would be enough to surpass Le Pen by a point.

Pre-second round polls also had Mélenchon's supporters going 80-20 to Macron in the second round; hypothetical polls should be treated with a lot of caution. Who knows how Hamon dropping out would have affected right leaning Fillon or NDA voters?

True, and much of this did come from the surge which may well have not occurred if Hamon had dropped earlier

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know if the debate tonight will be shown on the English version of France24 ?

[Tirnam]

Does anyone know if the debate tonight will be shown on the English version of France24 ?

Probably.

Poll Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde

Turnout: 76%

Macron: 59% (-1)
Le Pen: 41% (+1)

Candidate's grade
Macron: dislike (0 to 3): 47%, average (4 to 6): 29%, like (7 to 10): 24%. Average grade: 3.9
Le Pen: dislike: 59%, average: 16%, like: 25%. Average grade: 3.2

Political parties (likelihood to vote for the partyl)
En Marche: 49% not likely (0 to 3), 24% somewhat likely (4 to 6), 23% likely (7 to 10) (average grade: 3.7)
LR: 56% not likely, 18% somewhat likely, 22% likely (average grade: 3.3)
FN: 62% not likely, 10% somewhat likely, 24% likely (average grade: 3.0)
PS: 58% not likely, 23% somewhat likely, 16% likely (average grade: 3.0)

[Tirnam]

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

[ApatheticAustrian]

http://mobile.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/05/03/selon-notre-sondage-emmanuel-macron-est-en-position-de-force-malgre-des-fragilites_5121280_4854003.html?xtref=https://t.co/KpHdtekAJ2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Any predictions for tonight's debate?

[DL]

What do you mean "two points from having it all"? Even I Melenchon had snuck ahead of LePen and made it into the runoff he would have been crushed by Macron by an even bigger margin than he will have against LePen'

Considering where things were, defeating Macron would've been quite the task, but I have no doubt the polls would be much much closer in his favor than they are for Le Pen. But just taking on Macron, forcing him to go further left, forcing him even harder to work for the working class (well beyond the optics he needed at that Whirlpool Factory against a faux-populist).

I'm not so sure that a Macron vs Melenchon run-off would have forced Macron to the left. In fact quite the contrary. If that was the run-off the votes that would be up for grabs would be those of people who had voted for Fillon and LePen (and a smaller number for Hamon). In that scenario Macron might have even campaigned further to the right since the votes he would need to capture would be mostly those of people who had backed rightwing candidates in the first round

[Umengus]

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

The results given by the Le Monde reporter was a little bit different (51,5 in paca for Le pen) but it's ok. I think that Paca will be better.

31 % in Ile de France is not so bad...

[parochial boy]

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Must be pretty likely that Macron gets close fo 90% in Paris intramuros no?

[Tirnam]

OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (=)
Le Pen: 40% (=)

Ifop
Macron: 60% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 40% (-0.5)

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

The results given by the Le Monde reporter was a little bit different (51,5 in paca for Le pen) but it's ok. I think that Paca will be better.

31 % in Ile de France is not so bad...

50.5% for Le Pen is correct.

Here is the full release for all regions:

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/notices_techniques_cevipof14_12_regions.pdf

[SunSt0rm]

OpinionWay polled the legislative election if Macron would win next sunday. The only polled  metropolitan France without Corsica. Their poll shows:

EM: 249-285 deputies
LR/UDI: 200-210
PS: 28-43
FN: 15-25
FdG: 6-8

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives-2017/0212035461141-sondage-en-marche-donne-gagnant-des-legislatives-2084198.php#xtor=CS1-33

EDIT: corrected to FN 15-25

[Tintrlvr]

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Must be pretty likely that Macron gets close fo 90% in Paris intramuros no?

Seems likely Macron will be close to if not over 90% in the Paris department, but it's hard to say for certain how the heavily Fillon areas will vote. Also, if there is high abstentionism among Melenchon voters, Le Pen could get close to 10% even if nearly all Fillon voters go for Macron.

[Tirnam]

OpinionWay polled the legislative election if Macron would win next sunday. The only polled  metropolitan France without Corsica. Their poll shows:

EM: 249-285 deputies
LR/UDI: 200-210
PS: 28-43
FN: 15-45
FdG: 6-8

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives-2017/0212035461141-sondage-en-marche-donne-gagnant-des-legislatives-2084198.php#xtor=CS1-33

So with the 42 others constituencies En Marche! could reach the absolute majority (threshold at 289 deputies).
And for FN it's 15-25 deputies.

[DL]

If by far the largest opposition block to En Marche are the remnants of Les Republicains...how long before En marche becomes essentially a rebranded Parti Socialiste with Macron having a program that is very similar what Valls would have had if he had been President and also similar to what a second term of  Hollande would have been like (in terms of ideology)

[TheSaint250]

OpinionWay polled the legislative election if Macron would win next sunday. The only polled  metropolitan France without Corsica. Their poll shows:

EM: 249-285 deputies
LR/UDI: 200-210
PS: 28-43
FN: 15-45
FdG: 6-8

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives-2017/0212035461141-sondage-en-marche-donne-gagnant-des-legislatives-2084198.php#xtor=CS1-33

So with the 42 others constituencies En Marche! could reach the absolute majority (threshold at 289 deputies).
And for FN it's 15-25 deputies.

Damn.

I knew the Socialist Party was screwed, but I didn't think it would be blown out of existence.

If this poll is right, the Socialist Party is gone.

Since many En Marche! supporters were more centrist Socialists, the party could sway more to the left, but Macron needs to keep it moderate to prevent any anti-Socialist backlash from turning into anti-En Marche! backlash.

[Barnes]

The old SFIO* did just as badly in 1968 prophesying its electoral implosion in '69.  However, the PS scored an abysmally similar result in 1993 and confounded conventional wisdom by coming first in the first round of 1995. The French left has collapsed and reformed many times before and we don't really know how that will play out this time around.

*Which was actually running in Mitterand's FGDS coalition.

[jaichind]

The old SFIO* did just as badly in 1968 prophesying its electoral implosion in '69.  However, the PS scored an abysmally similar result in 1993 and confounded conventional wisdom by coming first in the first round of 1995. The French left has collapsed and reformed many times before and we don't really know how that will play out this time around.

*Which was actually running in Mitterand's FGDS coalition.

Yes, but reading details of the poll, out of 535 seats they have on the second round

Elected on first round         1
Right vs FN                    154
Left vs FN                      6-32
FN vs Right vs EM            32
EM vs Left                       46
EM vs Right                   180
EM vs FN                     90-116

It seems FN will be in the second round in 308 seats
              Right will be in the second round in 366 seats
              EM will be in the second round in 348-374 seats
              Left will be in the second round in 52-78 seats

Left is not relevant in a vast majority of seats.  So unless EM starts to implode quickly the center-Left space might be occupied by EM eventually leaving the Left as a fringe force.

[DL]

But is EM really any different from the moderate wing of the PS??? If so then isnt EM essentially a part of the left just as much as the PS was and is?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, EM will not be part of the Left even if many of its members will formerly have been. This is France: traditions, symbols and rhetoric are what defines your political camp, not anything so gross and vulgar as policy. But anyone prophesying the death of the French Left is being completely absurd. An awful defeat has just happened and another is coming, but it will be back, even if it takes a while (they've been out for decades in the past). All I can say is that you people have been winning too long; has warped your minds and expectations for the future.

[ApatheticAustrian]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic

direct translation

[kelestian]

In 2012 Hollande-Sarkozi last debate was translated on Russian TV. It's strange that now not.

[Barnes]

It really isn't difficult to believe that such a result would come about when an administration has a, you know, 4% approval rating. EM is not on the left and does not want to be on the left; neither will FG and its companions of Cold War nastolgists represent the mainstream left moving forward. Whether or or the PS's current brand survives is to be seen, but its position which has been dominated by its predecessor parties going back decades will not suddenly disappear.

As Al said, this will take a long time most probably, but imagine the years of waiting between 1958 and 1981.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So far from what I am seeing on French twitter, people are liking Macron's wit and calmness. Dislike Le Pen's aggressiveness and lack of policy.

[Tirnam]

So far Le Pen is a total disaster.