France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140070 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #975 on: May 01, 2017, 03:37:43 PM »


Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.
I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.

Outright joining FI would be suicidal, basically a return to the late 50s and 60s where the PCF consistently won 20% and could do nothing with it. We need a strong social-democratic party that can actually win, not a rump radicalized left bloc.
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Meeker
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« Reply #976 on: May 01, 2017, 03:46:31 PM »

Has the Fifth Republic ever seen a National Assembly where no ideological bloc has overall control?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #977 on: May 01, 2017, 03:55:00 PM »

Has the Fifth Republic ever seen a National Assembly where no ideological bloc has overall control?

Well, it depends what you mean by "ideological bloc". The First Legislature was kind of a mess, and only worked because De Gaulle was still backed by the grand coalition inherited from Fourth Republic (when that coalition broke down in 1962, he dissolved the assembly and got a more cohesive majority). The situation was kind of messy after 1976, when Chirac resigned from being Giscard's PM and all but became an internal opponent, though the RPR still backed Barre's government. Also from 1988 to 1993, the PS relied on occasional support from either the PCF or centrists to pass laws despite not being allied with either.
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windjammer
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« Reply #978 on: May 01, 2017, 03:55:48 PM »

Has the Fifth Republic ever seen a National Assembly where no ideological bloc has overall control?
Well, the current one lol
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #979 on: May 01, 2017, 04:18:54 PM »

le pen seemingly plagiarizes a speech of fillon:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/859152658518745089
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Tirnam
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« Reply #980 on: May 01, 2017, 04:26:42 PM »

Le Pen campaign reaction: "An allusion that shows that she is not sectarian"
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #981 on: May 01, 2017, 04:34:59 PM »

When I got caught plagiarizing, I just called it an allusion! I mean, it was really on the nose and actually copied the original work, but aren't they the same thing at the end of the day?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #982 on: May 01, 2017, 05:17:50 PM »


Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.
I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.

Outright joining FI would be suicidal, basically a return to the late 50s and 60s where the PCF consistently won 20% and could do nothing with it. We need a strong social-democratic party that can actually win, not a rump radicalized left bloc.
What I am interested in is getting the left in the second round, at the very least. We narrowly failed in the Presidential, and if the split continues the left will be locked out of a majority of legislative seats in the first round. I would prefer a social democratic party leading the left, but in the current reality joining FI is more realistic.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #983 on: May 01, 2017, 06:28:24 PM »


Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.
I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.

Outright joining FI would be suicidal, basically a return to the late 50s and 60s where the PCF consistently won 20% and could do nothing with it. We need a strong social-democratic party that can actually win, not a rump radicalized left bloc.
What I am interested in is getting the left in the second round, at the very least. We narrowly failed in the Presidential, and if the split continues the left will be locked out of a majority of legislative seats in the first round. I would prefer a social democratic party leading the left, but in the current reality joining FI is more realistic.

If you want the left to be competitive, Mélenchon is not the right person to go with.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #984 on: May 02, 2017, 01:18:39 AM »

Y. Varoufakis call to vote for Macron.
Even if he disagree with Macron's policies, he says that Macron was the only one who wanted to save Greece in 2015.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #985 on: May 02, 2017, 01:34:55 AM »

Y. Varoufakis call to vote for Macron.
Even if he disagree with Macron's policies, he says that Macron was the only one who wanted to save Greece in 2015.

If he shares some of his GAME THEORY tips with FBM, he has this locked up!
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Zinneke
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« Reply #986 on: May 02, 2017, 04:55:54 AM »

I wonder who will fill NDA's political space after this?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #987 on: May 02, 2017, 05:31:52 AM »

A few thoughts about the left -

Bear in mind that Hamon's terrible performance was at least in part becuase he ran a bad campaign; and lost a stream of voters to both Mélenchon and Macron who were voting tactically to keep out both Fillon and Le Pen. I have seen lots of people being positive about Hamon's programme, but voting for someone else as a "Vote Utile".

So if you think 6% is genuinely where the mainstream left is at the minute, you are living in a dreamworld.

Likewise, the PS, with its current branding may not survive, but it's legacy probably will live on as the main representative of the French mainstream left for a few reasons:

1. The Mainstream left does still have a place, and is going to be the best placed to win. Mélenchon's Euroscepticism is a big turn off for a lot of people, including people who are quite radically left wing. Just ask Marine Le Pen how many votes there are to win in wanting to pull France out of the EU.

2. Like it or not, the PS has the infrastrucucture/networks/machine to carry on winning votes, whereas FI is basically a machine for Mélenchon. Post-Mélenchon, FI is basically nothing, and and organised left will need the groundgame that the PS currently has, and will be able to take into any future main party of the left.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #988 on: May 02, 2017, 05:40:44 AM »

OpinionWay

Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%(+1)

Ipsos

Macron: 60% (-2)
Le Pen: 40% (+2)

Macron is the most trusted for Europe (50% to 22% for Le Pen), international (47% to 21%). Le Pen for immigration (53% to 22%), terrorism (44% to 21%), security (44% to 19%)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #989 on: May 02, 2017, 05:53:51 AM »

Pretty stable.

I still doubt she'll get 40% in the end. Maybe not even 35%. I wonder if the debate tomorrow changes the polls. Macron will likely attack her on the plagiarized speech.
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Diouf
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« Reply #990 on: May 02, 2017, 06:24:48 AM »

Pretty stable.

I still doubt she'll get 40% in the end. Maybe not even 35%. I wonder if the debate tomorrow changes the polls. Macron will likely attack her on the plagiarized speech.

Isn't that just an appeal to Fillon voters basically? If she is to win, she clearly needs to get a lot more Fillon voters. She could hardly ask for better headlines than "Le Pen copies Fillon", I would think. If the media and Macron think this is a big attack point, they really should reconsider.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #991 on: May 02, 2017, 06:50:11 AM »

I do believe that Macron can save the EU which is why he MUST kick fascist, Le Pen to the curb and not let her reach 40%.
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alomas
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« Reply #992 on: May 02, 2017, 07:54:15 AM »

The good thing is Le Pen will lose. The bad (and maybe even worse) thing is Macron will win. This country is in crisis anyway.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #993 on: May 02, 2017, 10:22:53 AM »

France Insoumise consultation result is known:

36% prefer blanc vote
35% prefer Macron
29% prefer abstention

Elabe poll
Macron 59% (-5%)
Le Pen 41% (+5%)
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Tirnam
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« Reply #994 on: May 02, 2017, 10:33:53 AM »

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.
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DL
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« Reply #995 on: May 02, 2017, 10:38:19 AM »

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.

What would be the point of that???
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rob in cal
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« Reply #996 on: May 02, 2017, 11:01:17 AM »

   On most economic issues, is it fair to say that Le Pen is running to the left of Macron?  From what I've read this seems to be the case.  Of all the populist, anti-globalist European parties lumped in as "far-right" I wonder what others have had candidates running like this, i.e. strongly nationalist, but also on the left economically.
   Had it come to a Macron vs Melenchon runoff would Le Pen have endorsed Melenchon?
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DL
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« Reply #997 on: May 02, 2017, 11:03:50 AM »

   
   Had it come to a Macron vs Melenchon runoff would Le Pen have endorsed Melenchon?

I suspect there would have been ZERO chance of that happening
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Tirnam
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« Reply #998 on: May 02, 2017, 11:10:05 AM »

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.

What would be the point of that???
Game expectations I think, to prepare people to the aggressiveness of Le Pen. Unless Le Pen insults him, I think he will stay in the debate.

Ifop

Macron: 59.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 40.5% (-0.5)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #999 on: May 02, 2017, 12:40:10 PM »

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.

Oh God, that would be PATHETIC.

What a sh*tty f**king choice we have. I think I'd rather have Chirac again.
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