France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 139987 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #950 on: April 30, 2017, 10:01:59 PM »

I can't have dozens of categories, and for most of French history the "center" has been affiliated with the right, so while FBM is an anomaly in this respect, he's not worth changing everything.

Lassalle was affiliated with Bayrou, sure, but the kind of campaign he's run this time has very little in common with traditional centrist candidates. It's much more reminding of CPNT's heydays.

Asselineau was a single-issue anti-EU candidate. Being anti-EU doesn't make someone automatically far-right, for crying out loud.
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Hydera
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« Reply #951 on: April 30, 2017, 10:53:03 PM »

Structure of the vote in every Presidential election since 1965:



Literally the worst result ever for the combined left.


Kind of crazy how many UDF voters in 1981 switched to the FN in 1988. (Or also a lot of RPR voters and UDF voters went to the FN but enough UDF voters supplemented the RPR vote in 1988 to make it have the same result as in 1981.)
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #952 on: April 30, 2017, 10:56:28 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2017, 11:02:09 PM by Tintrlvr »

I can't have dozens of categories, and for most of French history the "center" has been affiliated with the right, so while FBM is an anomaly in this respect, he's not worth changing everything.

Maybe, but it makes the whole chart deeply disingenuous. It makes it look like voters strongly favored "the right" over "the left," with mass defections from the left, when in fact it was mainly "the center" and a candidate overall identified more with the left than the right that benefited. The right did not do better this year than in 1995! (Or 2007 if Bayrou counts as "center-right" rather than "center" with Macron (which is fairly arguable either way, I think).)

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As I said, fine. I would put him in "center" but fair enough for him to be in "miscellaneous."

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Asselineau has a bunch of other obviously far-right nationalist views and is basically in the same space as FN, or at least DLF. I don't know why that is controversial. He's not Chevenement, who might be fairly classified as "other," as it looks like he probably was for 2002.
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Beet
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« Reply #953 on: April 30, 2017, 10:57:57 PM »

Structure of the vote in every Presidential election since 1965:



Literally the worst result ever for the combined left.

My friend says it's the best result for the left in decades since he doesn't count the recent (pre-Hamon) Socialist Party as left.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #954 on: May 01, 2017, 06:04:46 AM »

OpinionWay

Macron: 61% (+1)
Le Pen: 39% (-1)

NDA endorsement has no effect so far
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #955 on: May 01, 2017, 09:14:12 AM »

PS will formally split this summer.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #956 on: May 01, 2017, 09:29:51 AM »

IFOP:

59% Macron (-1)
41% Le Pen (+1)

Turnout: 72% (Le Pen-voters: 85%, Macron: 82%, Hamon: 74%, Fillon: 73%, Melenchon: 63%)
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #957 on: May 01, 2017, 10:57:27 AM »

IFOP:

59% Macron (-1)
41% Le Pen (+1)

Turnout: 72% (Le Pen-voters: 85%, Macron: 82%, Hamon: 74%, Fillon: 73%, Melenchon: 63%)
Was this the poll Le Pen supporters are spamming on Twitter about?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #958 on: May 01, 2017, 11:14:30 AM »


Damn, is there any centre-left party that isn't about to split between "third way candidates" and "true leftists". Now the French PS, but there's also British Labour (Blairites vs Corbynistas), the Spanish PSOE (Sanchez vs Susana) even the US Democratic party to some extent! (though this last one will not die because of how entrenched the American 2 party system is. Same for Labour)
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DL
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« Reply #959 on: May 01, 2017, 11:22:41 AM »

I suppose that if the "left" in France splits into a quasi-PCF Melanchon-led Front de gauche as well as a more Third Way style social democratic En Marche party led by Macron...its almost like a return to the days when the French left was made up of the Communist Party that would get about 20% and the very moderate Socialist Party of the 70s and 80s
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #960 on: May 01, 2017, 11:37:20 AM »

Kantar/Sofres:

59% Macron (-2)
41% Le Pen (+2)

By round 1 vote (left):



Interesting that among non-voters in round 1, Macron leads slightly. That means a surge in turnout wouldn't benefit Le Pen, but rather hurt her. Not by a lot, but still.

Also, only 36% of Macron runoff voters are voting for him with conviction while 64% are voting for him to block Le Pen.

53% of Le Pen voters are backing her out of conviction, 47% to block Macron.

http://www.lci.fr/elections/exclusif-sondage-2e-tour-macron-donne-vainqueur-a-59-face-a-le-pen-2050576.html
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #961 on: May 01, 2017, 12:20:19 PM »

Macron was and is a candidate of the Centre and has never pretended to be anything else. It is as Alain once said; when someone says that the difference between Right and Left is not so very important your first thought should be that that person is not on the Left.

I suppose that if the "left" in France splits into a quasi-PCF Melanchon-led Front de gauche as well as a more Third Way style social democratic En Marche party led by Macron...

What, is Macron advocating using market policies to achieve socialist goals now? No, I didn't think he was either...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #962 on: May 01, 2017, 12:21:10 PM »

Look, the Left got crushed. Utterly crushed. And the legislatives will be another grim defeat as well. But this isn't the end; it will recover, in some form, eventually.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #963 on: May 01, 2017, 12:22:21 PM »

And does the defection of large parts of the PS to the New Centre Party prove that actually the New Centre Party is on the Left? Non... it just proves that large numbers of people on the Left are defecting to the Centre.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #964 on: May 01, 2017, 12:26:49 PM »

The May Day wasn't as calm in Paris today as it was in Vienna, with police officers getting attacked with molotow cocktails by left (?)-wing protesters. Some police officers got heavily injured. The leftist unions called on voters not to vote for either Macron or Le Pen ...

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #965 on: May 01, 2017, 12:34:39 PM »

Since this big BBC interview is making waves, in which Macron calls for EU reforms and says, if he couldn't deliver on them, it would be a betrayal of his voters and lead to Frexit/Le Pen....

.... do we know what exactly he is talking about?

Afaik he mostly talked about closer integration moves.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #966 on: May 01, 2017, 12:51:43 PM »

Since this big BBC interview is making waves, in which Macron calls for EU reforms and says, if he couldn't deliver on them, it would be a betrayal of his voters and lead to Frexit/Le Pen....

.... do we know what exactly he is talking about?

Afaik he mostly talked about closer integration moves.

Hmm...Macron is still towing a similar line to Hollande in 2012. Basically the idea that German fiscal austerity for the sake of austerity needs reversing to help France. He is saying though that its precisely his pro-EU stance that will help.

Also, France's progressives are a leading proponent of the Eurozone parliament for a common fiscal policy and more democratic control of the (semi-independent) ECB. The first one makes theoretical sense but is mainly opposed by the small and/or richer countries, and the last one is a bit superficial and risks over-politicising monetary policy. The anti-Brussels narrative stems from this lack of control and if things continue the way they are.

Keep in mind Macron makes these comments on the 1rst of May, to a British audience ;-)
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kyc0705
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« Reply #967 on: May 01, 2017, 01:27:17 PM »

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

This is the thing most people are missing. If Le Pen loses, but still performs above her polling expectations, and Macron has a bad five years—economic stagnation, terrorism, or just inefficiency—2022 is going to be ugly.
2017 is a completely different world from 2012. Trying to predict what 2022 will be like is insane.

That is why I put out all those qualifiers about what 2022 France/Europe would have to look like.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #968 on: May 01, 2017, 01:57:31 PM »

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

This is the thing most people are missing. If Le Pen loses, but still performs above her polling expectations, and Macron has a bad five years—economic stagnation, terrorism, or just inefficiency—2022 is going to be ugly.
2017 is a completely different world from 2012. Trying to predict what 2022 will be like is insane.

That is why I put out all those qualifiers about what 2022 France/Europe would have to look like.
I get where you're coming from and I recognize that. This is more directed at the others in this thread who think the next five years are going to be exactly like 2012-2017. If you asked me back in 2012 what the world would look like today, I would have been way off the mark.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #969 on: May 01, 2017, 02:19:40 PM »
« Edited: May 01, 2017, 02:21:38 PM by En Marche Forcée »

Look, the Left got crushed. Utterly crushed. And the legislatives will be another grim defeat as well. But this isn't the end; it will recover, in some form, eventually.

I mean sure, eventually, but you know what Keynes had to say about the long run. And God knows what will happen to the world while we wait for it...


Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #970 on: May 01, 2017, 02:28:05 PM »


Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.
I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #971 on: May 01, 2017, 02:36:12 PM »

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

This is the thing most people are missing. If Le Pen loses, but still performs above her polling expectations, and Macron has a bad five years—economic stagnation, terrorism, or just inefficiency—2022 is going to be ugly.
2017 is a completely different world from 2012. Trying to predict what 2022 will be like is insane.

That is why I put out all those qualifiers about what 2022 France/Europe would have to look like.
I get where you're coming from and I recognize that. This is more directed at the others in this thread who think the next five years are going to be exactly like 2012-2017. If you asked me back in 2012 what the world would look like today, I would have been way off the mark.

Oh, I see. Yeah, obviously those kinds of assumptions being made on here are foolhardy.
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DL
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« Reply #972 on: May 01, 2017, 02:54:43 PM »

For all the gloating vultures circling over the corpse of the PS - let's not forget that this is also a horrific defeat for the traditional French right - Les Republicains. They could also fly off in all directions and could get severely damaged in the legislative elections too
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #973 on: May 01, 2017, 02:58:11 PM »

I'm interested in how the legislative elections will turn out, especially for the traditional left and right parties. Id' be interesting to see how EM and FN do in the legislative elections as well.
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mgop
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« Reply #974 on: May 01, 2017, 03:07:03 PM »

there is no space for ps in french politics anymore. true left will go to melenchon, and quasi left to macron. rip ps.
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