France 2017: Results Thread

[jaichind]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but I had to get off the forum ten pages in. Is there any chance that Le Pen comes out on top in this first round? From what I can see, she is currently 0.4% behind with ten departments remaining (five of them around Paris).

Unlikely.

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

seems to have it Macron ahead by 23.5% to 22.08%

[Mike88]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but I had to get off the forum ten pages in. Is there any chance that Le Pen comes out on top in this first round? From what I can see, she is currently 0.4% behind with ten departments remaining (five of them around Paris).

Nope. At the moment, and judging from the Interior minister website, Le Pen has 22.1% and Macron 23.5%, and Paris and it's surroundings have not been added to the tally yet.

[ApatheticAustrian]

nearly spot-on poll-closing prediction, impressive.

(even while i as an austrian am used to those by now xD)

[Mr. Smith]

What are the odds of Melenchon overtaking Fillon?

[Mike88]

What are the odds of Melenchon overtaking Fillon?

Small, i believe. With almost 96% in, Melenchon is at 19.5% and Fillon at 20.0%. It could be reason thin the difference between them, but i think Fillon will end ahead of Melenchon.

[jaichind]

The result map of Creuse

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/creuse/

is really fun.  All 4 candidates won around 1/4 of the districts each.

[Tintrlvr]

I recall a bunch of people poo-pooing the idea that Hauts-de-Seine would be Fillon's best department in Metropolitan France... He didn't win it, but it was his best department after all, edging Sarthe, with 29.14% of the vote. Macron won it with 32.30%. (I predicted Yvelines as Fillon's best department, so I don't win prediction kudos on this one, either.)

[adma]

The "economic anxiety" nonsense isn't worth much. People just don't want to live in a multicultural country.

As a resident of Toronto, I find that sentiment mystifying ;-)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Who won more communes: Hamon, Dupont-Aignan or Lassalle?

[Donnie]

On 46.46m registered voters (96.57%): Macron 23.86%, Le Pen 21.47%, Fillon 19.97%, Melenchon 19.56%

[Mike88]

96.57% in:

23.86% Macron
21.47% Le Pen
19.97% Fillon
19.56% Melenchon

From here: https://twitter.com/GeraldineAmiel/status/856290795560763392

[Roronoa D. Law]

I recall a bunch of people poo-pooing the idea that Hauts-de-Seine would be Fillon's best department in Metropolitan France... He didn't win it, but it was his best department after all, edging Sarthe, with 29.14% of the vote. Macron won it with 32.30%.

I predicted Haute-Savoie because Geneva suburbs and Alps resort towns were not going for Le Pen.

[Tintrlvr]

Who won more communes: Hamon, Dupont-Aignan or Lassalle?

Lassalle easily. All those communes in Pyrenees-Atlantiques.

[parochial boy]

I recall a bunch of people poo-pooing the idea that Hauts-de-Seine would be Fillon's best department in Metropolitan France... He didn't win it, but it was his best department after all, edging Sarthe, with 29.14% of the vote. Macron won it with 32.30%. (I predicted Yvelines as Fillon's best department, so I don't win prediction kudos on this one, either.)

Yeah, I poo-pooed both Sarthe and Hauts-de-Seine as his best. I guess I underestimated the home boy effect and just to what extent Auteil-Neuilly-Passy woukd stay with LR. Alpes Maritimes wasnt too far off though.

Dont think anyone expected Aisne to be Le Pen's best though

[Zinneke]

source : https://twitter.com/julesbonnard
EDIT :

updated one

I will never get Corsica.

[Vosem]

Who won more communes: Hamon, Dupont-Aignan or Lassalle?

Certainly Lassalle in metropolitan France; probably Lassalle overall, but Hamon may be ahead of him due to the many random island communes he won.

[Classic Conservative]

Will LePen win any departments in the 2nd round?

[DavidB.]

Some larger cities:

Strasbourg: Macron 27.8%, Mélenchon 24.4%, Fillon 19.8%, Le Pen 12.2%
Lille: Mélenchon 29.9%, Macron 25%, Fillon 14.4%, Le Pen 13.8%
Grenoble: Mélenchon 28.9%, Macron 28.6%, Fillon 15.1%, Hamon 10.8%, Le Pen 10.7%
Bordeaux: Macron 31.3%, Mélenchon 23.4%, Fillon 21.8%, Hamon 10.1%, Le Pen 7.4%
Nantes: Macron 30.8%, Mélenchon 25.5%, Fillon 20.3%, Hamon 11%, Le Pen 7.1%
Dijon: Macron 27.3%, Mélenchon 21.9%, Fillon 20.9%, Le Pen 14.5%

Pretty uniform patterns here. Larger cities where Le Pen did better are Reims (21.9%) and, obviously, Nice (25.3%).

[jaichind]

I had thought the markets had priced in a Macron victory weeks ago.  It seems it did not.  The markets are in Risk On mode as soon real results came in.  EUR up 1.4% while haven assets like JPY and Gold are down .75% and 0.80% respectively.  Dow futures are up 0.8% and Nikkei futures are up 1.5%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map is hilarious/horrifying. The Realignment is real.

[jaichind]

I was certain that Hamon was going to drop out the day before the election and endorse Mélenchon.  I wonder if he did would Mélenchon have surged into the second place?

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map is hilarious/horrifying. The Realignment is real.

What's the realignment? I don't known French politics well.

Places like Vendée and Haut-de-Seine voting for the de facto "left-wing" candidate while doing terribly every working class area.

[Zinneke]

Mister Bonnard has posted the maps by candidate on twitter.

e.g.

[Mike88]

97.01% in:

23.87% Macron
21.43% Le Pen
19.94% Fillon
19.60% Melenchon

From here: https://twitter.com/GeraldineAmiel/status/856298471720198144

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Places like Vendée and Haut-de-Seine voting for the de facto "left-wing" candidate while doing terribly every working class area.

Not sure if it makes sense to think of Macron in such terms. He's the latest centrist huckster, except that in its current incarnation centrist hucksterism takes a higher share from the left than in its previous one (but not all previous ones).