France 2017: Results Thread
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  France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140039 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #550 on: April 23, 2017, 05:43:51 PM »

I noticed that in Mayotte, with is 97% Muslim, Fillon wins with 33% and Le Pen is second with 27%. Also voted very right-wing in 2012 as well.

They don't like migrants coming over from the Comoros.

Also, Mayotte was basically created by putting all the anti-independence supporters on one island when Comoros became independent.

Anyone know whether Le Pen considers the French citizens on Mayotte to be truly "French" or not?

She actually visited Mayotte during the campaign, so she does seem to consider them as real citizens (although, who knows what she thinks in private).

Her niece, however, seems to have some issues with Mayotte being truly "French".
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rob in cal
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« Reply #551 on: April 23, 2017, 05:44:10 PM »

   So which parts of Paris would be considered the wealthiest?  
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Zinneke
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« Reply #552 on: April 23, 2017, 05:44:51 PM »

Le Pen has come 5th in every arrondissement of Paris that's come in so far.

Also - Mélenchon is doing very well in the parts of Ile de France east of Paris.

She's in 4th in the 8th arrondissement (with less than 5% of the vote).

Remember when East Paris was quite heavily FN with all those groupuscules and weird neo-nazi groups? What happened?
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Klartext89
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« Reply #553 on: April 23, 2017, 05:45:25 PM »


This is like the questions about why Sanders supporters didn't just go over to Trump. Melenchon voters care about economic reforms and opposition to (what they see as) racism; the European Union and liberalism, for these guys, are unimportant issues that it's acceptable to negotiate over. A decent number of them voted Hollande '12, and Melenchon held back from saying he wanted to leave the EU (talking about NATO instead).

Ultimately, the problem your movement has is that overwhelming majorities of French and German people (whether you mean the nationality or ethnicity; you clearly prefer the latter definition and are irked by the former, but it's true either way) are pretty hardcore pro-EU and pro-liberalism, and the generational trend is that it is getting more so. That it seems to be a common thought in your movement that you can win over Melenchon supporters and Antifa sympathizers rather than trying to appeal to mainstream right-wingers (by, for instance, adopting pro-trade stances while remaining anti-immigration, which is a common combination of beliefs) is a good example of why it'll basically never win.

I fully agree with the economic argument and I totally doubt the "racism" and EU explanation, but nevertheless thanks.

Our problem is that most people are totally manipulated by the left-wing media and are voting against their own beliefs. Muslim Ban e.g. is way more popular in Europe than in the US but a big bunch of people is either voting because of other topics or they really think that a vote for a non-mainstream candidate would be HITLER. If it wouldn't be so sad, I could laugh about so much stupidity. Whatever. Europe is doomed.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #554 on: April 23, 2017, 05:45:50 PM »

   So which parts of Paris would be considered the wealthiest? 

7th, 8th and 16th arrondissements
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Barnes
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« Reply #555 on: April 23, 2017, 05:46:21 PM »

Me thinks it's time to lock, Hash. Please.
How about instead we all stop and just discuss the election

Hard thing to ask, but c'est la vie.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #556 on: April 23, 2017, 05:46:31 PM »

  So which parts of Paris would be considered the wealthiest?  

The west side of Paris. The 7th, 8th and 16th arrondissements in particular, but there's also a lot of wealth in the 6th, 15th and 17th.
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Progressive
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« Reply #557 on: April 23, 2017, 05:46:43 PM »

Is there an idea of how certain minority groups voted? French Muslims, French Jews, French Black people, etc?
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Klartext89
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« Reply #558 on: April 23, 2017, 05:46:52 PM »

Me thinks it's time to lock, Hash. Please.

Yeah, I'm ignoring the trolls now. Sorry.
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Mike88
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« Reply #559 on: April 23, 2017, 05:48:59 PM »

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #560 on: April 23, 2017, 05:50:05 PM »

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.
That's a pretty good thought.  It could, but no real way of knowing.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #561 on: April 23, 2017, 05:50:13 PM »

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.

I would hope not, I wish we could see a similar system here in the U.S.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #562 on: April 23, 2017, 05:54:25 PM »

Is there an idea of how certain minority groups voted? French Muslims, French Jews, French Black people, etc?

Jews - usually a strong constituency for the right. They probably voted for Fillon in big numbers. The FN were doing well with Jews, although Le Pen probably lost support over the Vel d'Hiv comments. Macron probably lost support with Jews, who are largely of North African/pied noir descent, with his comments on Algeria being a "war crime", and the left are probably perceived as being too close to Muslims.

Muslims and blacks - overwhelmingly for Mélenchon and Macron (basically see the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and places like Vénissieux in the Rhône to get an idea.

Note that, in France, collecting data on ethnicity is illegal, so reliable figures are very hard to come by.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #563 on: April 23, 2017, 05:55:01 PM »

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.

I would hope not, I wish we could see a similar system here in the U.S.

He's talking about the primaries, not the top-two runoff. The primaries are basically the same as the US and inspired by it. I think primaries are likely to fall out of favor in Europe generally for other reasons; the only reason they got popular to begin with was because so many Europeans loved Barack Obama, but the primary results in 2016 on both sides were obviously less of the sort likely to inspire any more Europeans to want primaries.
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jaichind
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« Reply #564 on: April 23, 2017, 05:55:52 PM »

With around 86% (my guess) of the vote counted

Macron          23.26%
Le Pen           22.53%
Fillon            19.77%
Mélenchon     19.19%
Hamon           6.12%
Dupont-Aignan 4.96%
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Barnes
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« Reply #565 on: April 23, 2017, 05:56:02 PM »

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.

Well what happens to the PS in general is anyone's guess. But the Republicains had an enormous PR victory with the turnout on their primaries. Fillon used that pretty effectively to swat away calls for him to withdraw.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #566 on: April 23, 2017, 05:58:21 PM »

Best departments for each candidate (as of now)
Macron - Hauts-de-Seine (32.45%)
Le Pen - Aisne (37.61%)
Fillon - French Polynesia (35.28%)
Mélenchon - St-Pierre-et-Miquelon (35.45%)
Hamon - Wallis et Futuna (25.22%)
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The Free North
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« Reply #567 on: April 23, 2017, 05:59:41 PM »

Best departments for each candidate (as of now)
Macron - Hauts-de-Seine (32.45%)
Le Pen - Aisne (37.61%)
Fillon - French Polynesia (35.28%)
Mélenchon - St-Pierre-et-Miquelon (35.45%)
Hamon - Wallis et Futuna (25.22%)

What about Metropolitan France for the last 3.....
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Donnie
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« Reply #568 on: April 23, 2017, 06:03:37 PM »

From 45.97m voters (95.56%): Macron 23.82%, Le Pen 21.58%, Fillon 19.97%,
Melenchon 19.48%
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #569 on: April 23, 2017, 06:05:35 PM »

She's got 700 000 more votes today then in the regional elections. But high turn-out hurts her because she's already an enthusiastic base.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #570 on: April 23, 2017, 06:06:25 PM »

Best departments for each candidate (as of now)
Macron - Hauts-de-Seine (32.45%)
Le Pen - Aisne (37.61%)
Fillon - French Polynesia (35.28%)
Mélenchon - St-Pierre-et-Miquelon (35.45%)
Hamon - Wallis et Futuna (25.22%)

What about Metropolitan France for the last 3.....

For Fillon that would be Sarthe (28.61%) and for Mélenchon it's Ariège right now but when all is said and done Seine-Saint-Denis will probably be his best.
Hamon, I think it's Finistère - can't find any other mainland dept where he broke 10%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #571 on: April 23, 2017, 06:06:53 PM »

From 45.97m voters (95.56%): Macron 23.82%, Le Pen 21.58%, Fillon 19.97%,
Melenchon 19.48%

Where is your link to this.  The links I follow

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2017/elezioni/francia/?refresh_cens

all seems to have counts that are around high 80s in terms of votes counted.
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Donnie
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« Reply #572 on: April 23, 2017, 06:11:35 PM »

From 45.97m voters (95.56%): Macron 23.82%, Le Pen 21.58%, Fillon 19.97%,
Melenchon 19.48%

Where is your link to this.  The links I follow

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2017/elezioni/francia/?refresh_cens

all seems to have counts that are around high 80s in terms of votes counted.

https://twitter.com/GeraldineAmiel
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heatcharger
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« Reply #573 on: April 23, 2017, 06:12:37 PM »

From 45.97m voters (95.56%): Macron 23.82%, Le Pen 21.58%, Fillon 19.97%,
Melenchon 19.48%

Where is your link to this.  The links I follow

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2017/elezioni/francia/?refresh_cens

all seems to have counts that are around high 80s in terms of votes counted.

https://twitter.com/GeraldineAmiel

And she's getting the results from the French Interior Ministry press room, who gets the results first.
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jaichind
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« Reply #574 on: April 23, 2017, 06:13:36 PM »

I suspect Le Pen should be able to break 40% in the second round and could even go as high as 42% despite what the polls might say now.
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