France 2017: Results Thread
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  France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 139983 times)
Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #525 on: April 23, 2017, 05:20:20 PM »

From WSJ Live Blog:

26m

For Le Pen Supporters, Qualification Is Bittersweet

Getting over 20% in a presidential election and making the second round is a historic moment for the National Front party. But at around 22%, according to the latest estimations, it's well below the 27.7% the party scored in 2015 regional elections.

“We could have done better. I was expecting we’d be first and have at least 25%,” said Alexandre Maeseele, a 19-year-old local who joined the party 18 months ago.

Some, however, are galvanized by Ms. Le Pen's second-round strategy: recasting the election as a referendum on globalization.

"French people should seize this historic opportunity because what's at stake in this election is wild globalization that endangers our civilization," Ms. Le Pen said.

With that division in mind, supporters are looking to voters who cast their ballot for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon who, like Ms. Le Pen, railed against the EU and the globalized economy.

“It’s the far left so there are many ideas similar to the far right," said Caroline Zolnierczyk, a nurse who lives near Hénin-Beaumont.

“There are people who voted Mélenchon and can now vote for us. On the EU, they’ve understood it’s about free trade, falling spending power and unemployment," said Philippe Murer, an economic adviser to Ms. Le Pen.

Opinion polls, however, project that Ms. Le Pen is unlikely to pick up that many Mélenchon votes. According to a poll by Harris Interactive, only 12% of Mélenchon voters would switch to Ms. Le Pen in the second round. Ms. Le Pen is more likely to pick François Fillon's voters, of whom 23% would switch to the National Front leader in the second round, the poll shows.
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Xing
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« Reply #526 on: April 23, 2017, 05:21:17 PM »


Interesting. That would suggest Le Pen isn't so much extremely popular with young voters as she is very unpopular with older voters.
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Harry
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« Reply #527 on: April 23, 2017, 05:22:58 PM »

I noticed that in Mayotte, with is 97% Muslim, Fillon wins with 33% and Le Pen is second with 27%. Also voted very right-wing in 2012 as well.

They don't like migrants coming over from the Comoros.

Also, Mayotte was basically created by putting all the anti-independence supporters on one island when Comoros became independent.

Anyone know whether Le Pen considers the French citizens on Mayotte to be truly "French" or not?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #528 on: April 23, 2017, 05:23:14 PM »

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

Yes. But at the same time I really think people overestimated her after regionals and especially the Europeans.

I think the real danger must be that the far left take up her mantle from the traditional working class back again.

Her hope is that French politics polarises around Macron and her.

But Marine might not last the internal feuding brewing up without an overperformance in the run-off.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #529 on: April 23, 2017, 05:23:34 PM »

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

Well, Marine Le Pen disappointed right-wing expectations that she's going to pull a Brexit and prove the polls wrong. In that sense, she "underperformed".
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Klartext89
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« Reply #530 on: April 23, 2017, 05:25:05 PM »

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

By that definition, does it mean I am not American since I am 2nd generation?

I'm not interested in your family history and you can't compare USA to Europe, but it should be clear that you're only e.g. French when having French parents. At least one. And I don't mean a French passport.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #531 on: April 23, 2017, 05:25:12 PM »


Quick question re: results...would one be able to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?
 
  
Depends on how you look at it. Her result was expected to be somewhere between 21,5% and 23% when we look at recent polls. If we look at a longer trend she was at 26-28% in the polls just a month ago. Nevertheless it was the best result an FN candidate ever got in a presidential election.  
  
But imho realistically there was a terror attack just three days ago, the current socialist president is widely hated, the republican candidate's campaign was an absolute mess and three socially progressiv candidates took votes from each other. If she can't win in this situation, not even the first round, she won't ever win an election. I mean she got 4% more then last election, that's solid as it is but I guess for her and the Front National it's still an underwhelming result.
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Barnes
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« Reply #532 on: April 23, 2017, 05:25:51 PM »

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

Yes. But at the same time I really think people overestimated her after regionals and especially the Europeans.

I think the real danger must be that the far left take up her mantle from the traditional working class back again.

Her hope is that French politics polarises around Macron and her.

But Marine might not last the internal feuding brewing up without an overperformance in the run-off.

I agree. The 2014/15 elections really skewed the expectations of some, in a similar way that people thought UKIP's first place showing in 2014 was a sure sign of a "breakthrough" in the general election.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #533 on: April 23, 2017, 05:26:23 PM »

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?
I don't think so. The latest polls showed her at around 22%, the result she achieved tonight. The polls were fantastically accurate. A big applause for them! Cheesy

She's going to end up rounding down to 21%, I think. It's all cities left to report, and her results in the Paris metro in particular are hilariously bad (sub 5%).
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #534 on: April 23, 2017, 05:26:41 PM »

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

Well, Marine Le Pen disappointed right-wing expectations that she's going to pull a Brexit and prove the polls wrong. In that sense, she "underperformed".
This
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #535 on: April 23, 2017, 05:28:30 PM »

Le Pen wins Normandy
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Zinneke
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« Reply #536 on: April 23, 2017, 05:30:18 PM »

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

By that definition, does it mean I am not American since I am 2nd generation?

I'm not interested in your family history and you can't compare USA to Europe, but it should be clear that you're only e.g. French when having French parents. At least one. And I don't mean a French passport.

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #537 on: April 23, 2017, 05:31:26 PM »

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.
No one was talking about the law.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #538 on: April 23, 2017, 05:35:34 PM »

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

By that definition, does it mean I am not American since I am 2nd generation?

I'm not interested in your family history and you can't compare USA to Europe, but it should be clear that you're only e.g. French when having French parents. At least one. And I don't mean a French passport.

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.

Yeah, here too, what doesn't mean that this nonsense is anything close to be resonable or that I can't disagree with it.

And now cry me a river.

@Bannon's Brigade: Do you have a link to the regional results please? Just have the departments.
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Kamala
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« Reply #539 on: April 23, 2017, 05:36:12 PM »


Interesting. That would suggest Le Pen isn't so much extremely popular with young voters as she is very unpopular with older voters.

I think older voters associate her more with her father...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #540 on: April 23, 2017, 05:36:43 PM »

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.
No one was talking about the law.

Fantastic, I'm sure the French will absolutely love being told what constitutes being French by a couple of foreigners on the internet.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #541 on: April 23, 2017, 05:39:39 PM »

Le Pen has come 5th in every arrondissement of Paris that's come in so far.

Also - Mélenchon is doing very well in the parts of Ile de France east of Paris.
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Donnie
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« Reply #542 on: April 23, 2017, 05:39:56 PM »

From 45.15m voters (93.84%): Macron 23.77%, Le Pen 21.70%, Fillon 19.98%, Melenchon 19.40%
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Vosem
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« Reply #543 on: April 23, 2017, 05:39:57 PM »

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...
Your racism is showing.

Racism is only a codeword for hard truth not liked by the left, so I can pretty well live with that label given from a Leftist :-D

OMG, I triggered some snowflakes really hard :-D

Ok, let's go back to France: I wonder why (according to Ipsos) nearly all Melanchon voters will go to Macron, I mean he's anti-EU and anti-liberalism, Macron is the opposite.

This is like the questions about why Sanders supporters didn't just go over to Trump. Melenchon voters care about economic reforms and opposition to (what they see as) racism; the European Union and liberalism, for these guys, are unimportant issues that it's acceptable to negotiate over. A decent number of them voted Hollande '12, and Melenchon held back from saying he wanted to leave the EU (talking about NATO instead).

Ultimately, the problem your movement has is that overwhelming majorities of French and German people (whether you mean the nationality or ethnicity; you clearly prefer the latter definition and are irked by the former, but it's true either way) are pretty hardcore pro-EU and pro-liberalism, and the generational trend is that it is getting more so. That it seems to be a common thought in your movement that you can win over Melenchon supporters and Antifa sympathizers rather than trying to appeal to mainstream right-wingers (by, for instance, adopting pro-trade stances while remaining anti-immigration, which is a common combination of beliefs) is a good example of why it'll basically never win.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #544 on: April 23, 2017, 05:40:14 PM »

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.
No one was talking about the law.

Fantastic, I'm sure the French will absolutely love being told what constitutes being French by a couple of foreigners on the internet.

But I'm sure they will be happy that another foreigner on the internet defended them. Lmao, go to sleep, buddy.
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Serenity Now
tomm_86
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« Reply #545 on: April 23, 2017, 05:40:26 PM »

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...
Your racism is showing.

Racism is only a codeword for hard truth not liked by the left, so I can pretty well live with that label given from a Leftist :-D

OMG, I triggered some snowflakes really hard :-D
 

Wow, this guy could have been ordered straight out of a catalogue..
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #546 on: April 23, 2017, 05:40:56 PM »

Le Pen has come 5th in every arrondissement of Paris that's come in so far.

Also - Mélenchon is doing very well in the parts of Ile de France east of Paris.

She's in 4th in the 8th arrondissement (with less than 5% of the vote).
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
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« Reply #547 on: April 23, 2017, 05:42:27 PM »

And you can't compare France to Germany.
Droit de sol is the law there.
No one was talking about the law.

Fantastic, I'm sure the French will absolutely love being told what constitutes being French by a couple of foreigners on the internet.

But I'm sure they will be happy that another foreigner on the internet defended them. Lmao, go to sleep, buddy.
But I'm sure they will be SOOOoo disappointed that another foreigner on the internet attacked them. Lmao, go to sleep, buddy.
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Barnes
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« Reply #548 on: April 23, 2017, 05:43:07 PM »

Me thinks it's time to lock, Hash. Please.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #549 on: April 23, 2017, 05:43:27 PM »

Me thinks it's time to lock, Hash. Please.
How about instead we all stop and just discuss the election
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