France 2017: Results Thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

wouldn't call the traditional right dead in france, fillon did pretty well if you remember that he had collected SOOO much baggage and got some internal strife and macron defections.

[Classic Conservative]

In Brachay, Le Pen gets 83.7% of the vote. Macron gets 0 votes.

[TheSaint250]

wouldn't call the traditional right dead in france, fillon did pretty well if you remember that he had collected SOOO much baggage and got some internal strife and macron defections.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too (why I said not too sure about FN).

I think EM and JLM and their parties taking power in the place of PS are really possible

[mvd10]

I had seen an interesting theory on the other election thread:

This election could create a sort-of three-party system in France where the National Front leads the right, En Marche! leads the center, and Mélenchon's coalition leads the left.

Except for the National Front, this seems pretty likely to me.

Please kill me if that ever happens. But I agree with ApatheticAustrian. The right nominated an incredibly corrupt socially conservative Thatcherite (toxic in France) and still got 20% of the vote.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Estimate figures have Macron at 23.9%, Le Pen at 21.7% and Fillon at 20% with Ipsos.

[jaichind]

Latest Ifop projections

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 20.0%
Mélenchon 19.5%
Hamon 6.4%

[TheSaint250]

Latest Ifop projections

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 20.0%
Mélenchon 19.5%
Hamon 6.4%

Is Fillon going up?  If so, could he still end up in the second round?

[Tintrlvr]

Estimate figures have Macron at 23.9%, Le Pen at 21.7% and Fillon at 20%

Given that the estimates are based only on areas reporting and Le Pen is expected to do much worse in cities and Fillon much better, while as far as I can tell no cities of any significant size are reporting yet, there's still a tiny room for error that Fillon could edge Le Pen and make it to the runoff. Very unlikely, though.

[Boston Bread]

Latest Ifop projections

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 20.0%
Mélenchon 19.5%
Hamon 6.4%

Is Fillon going up?  If so, could he still end up in the second round?

Fillon has already conceded, so I don't think so.

[parochial boy]

Isère's north-south divide is always astonishing

[TheSaint250]

Corsica is leaning Fillon

[TheSaint250]

Macron taking the stage.

Wonder who he'll endorse

[ApatheticAustrian]

Silly question....

are there many big city counties included right now or does that work like everywhere?

[mgop]

macron will be just another one term president

[jaichind]

Ipsos snap poll has it as Macron 62 Le Pen 38 for second round.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I had seen an interesting theory on the other election thread:

This election could create a sort-of three-party system in France where the National Front leads the right, En Marche! leads the center, and Mélenchon's coalition leads the left.

Except for the National Front, this seems pretty likely to me.

Trouble is FN is screwed over by the electoral system (see: the last regional elections) which means their vote is never really reflected in parliament.

I think En Marche will be a revival of the old UDF tbh, which was  subsumed by Chirac's rightists. So tbh it's almost back to the past with a divided left (PS being just as humiliated as the SFIO) and centre President reliant on a coalition with the centre-right.

[Tintrlvr]

Silly question....

are there many big city counties included right now or does that work like everywhere?

I don't see any cities reporting yet. Even most suburbs seem to still be out.

[Devout Centrist]

Ipsos snap poll has it as Macron 62 Le Pen 38 for second round.

Pretty much in line with polls prior to today.

[TheSaint250]

From http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr

[jaichind]

Le Pen is getting a much bigger swing in the North than the South which is as expected.

[ApatheticAustrian]

advantage for classical lefties:

if macron breaks up the frozen structure holding back france and is able to succeed, the socialists won't be blamed and are able to heal their wounds, while we could all appreciate the outcome.

it's still a shame that renzi was knee-capped.

[heatcharger]

Ipsos snap poll has it as Macron 62 Le Pen 38 for second round.

Fillon voters:

43% Macron
17% Le Pen
40% No preference

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Weirdly, Lassalle has won a couple of communes on Corse-Sud (and tied with Fillon in a third), which are obviously well outside of the Bearnais/Basque areas. Anyone have any idea why?

Is Lassalle specifically a Basque candidate?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Results so far:

Marine Le Pen(Front National) - 3,083,264 voix
25,31 %

Emmanuel Macron(En Marche !) - 2,622,534 voix
21,53 %

François Fillon(Les Républicains) - 2,370,118 voix
19,46 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon(Gauche Radicale) - 2,179,904 voix
17,90 %
Benoît Hamon(Parti Socialiste) - 684,103 voix
5,62 %
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan(Debout la France) - 660,786 voix
5,42 %
Jean Lassalle(Résistons !) - 199,180 voix
1,64 %
Philippe Poutou(Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste) - 155 865 voix
1,28 %
François Asselineau(Union populaire républicaine)104 284 voix
0,86 %
Nathalie Arthaud(Lutte Ouvrière)96 931 voix
0,80 %
Jacques Cheminade(Solidarité et progrès)24 861 voix
0,19 %

[mgop]

trump and brexit are still there, so eu going into isolation if macron wins