France 2017: Results Thread
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #225 on: April 23, 2017, 01:38:08 PM »

Yuck. Terrible results.  Both Macron and Le Pen are horrible human beings.  Le Pen is of course the worst.
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windjammer
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« Reply #226 on: April 23, 2017, 01:39:25 PM »

I will not vote for Emmanuel Macron
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CrabCake
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« Reply #227 on: April 23, 2017, 01:39:48 PM »

Yes, seeing as my mind was swirling with dystopian scenarios of Le Pen at over a quarter of the vote and Fillon entering the run-off, this isn't as bad as it may have been.

I really wish Montebourg would have won the primary so he could have got this crappy result. (God knows what would have happened if valls had won)
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Vosem
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« Reply #228 on: April 23, 2017, 01:41:13 PM »

I find it amusing that the anti-globalists in this thread don't seem to have realized that their champion is selling them out to Eurofuhrer Merkel and will negotiate a trade deal with a united EU, excluding the United Kingdom which will be left in the cold.

Anyway, looks like the polls were basically right. Kind of surprising after how often they've been wrong; my prediction of older voters giving a boost to Fillon were wrong. Happy to see Macron do well, of course.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #229 on: April 23, 2017, 01:41:28 PM »


Out of curiosity, who did you support today? Melenchon or Hamon?
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Klartext89
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« Reply #230 on: April 23, 2017, 01:41:43 PM »


Huge respect, mate! You'e a REAL Leftist who is not chosing a neoliberal, globalist, establishment sellout.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #231 on: April 23, 2017, 01:41:56 PM »

Le Pen doing very well in Northern France, many places getting upper 40's and doing well in the East.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #232 on: April 23, 2017, 01:42:46 PM »

Fillon speaking.
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Barnes
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« Reply #233 on: April 23, 2017, 01:42:56 PM »

Yes, seeing as my mind was swirling with dystopian scenarios of Le Pen at over a quarter of the vote and Fillon entering the run-off, this isn't as bad as it may have been.

I really wish Montebourg would have won the primary so he could have got this crappy result. (God knows what would have happened if valls had won)

God, can you imagine if Valls had won...

In my opinion, if Hamon had scored 10% or more he would have become the natural leader of the PS's rebuilding effort, it that's possible. But with such a low result who knows...
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JA
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« Reply #234 on: April 23, 2017, 01:42:59 PM »

In election after election across the West, the Left has collapsed and the Right has either collapsed or adapted itself to the Far-Right. Each election has shown the "new left" being composed of white collar and minority, neoliberal, globalists against working and middle class nationalists. This does not bode well for those of us who support a Left detached from neoliberalism.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #235 on: April 23, 2017, 01:44:21 PM »

Fillon is speaking out against Le Pen, and will vote for Macron!
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #236 on: April 23, 2017, 01:44:22 PM »

Fillon endorsing Macron.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #237 on: April 23, 2017, 01:44:33 PM »

Fillon endorses FBM.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #238 on: April 23, 2017, 01:44:40 PM »

In election after election across the West, the Left has collapsed and the Right has either collapsed or adapted itself to the Far-Right. Each election has shown the "new left" being composed of white collar and minority, neoliberal, globalists against working and middle class nationalists. This does not bode well for those of us who support a Left detached from neoliberalism.
And what about Corbyn? He's certainly not neoliberal, but he'll get demolished.
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OkThen
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« Reply #239 on: April 23, 2017, 01:44:43 PM »

Fillon says he will vote for Macron.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #240 on: April 23, 2017, 01:44:56 PM »


That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.

But what's the alternative explanation for why all the polls agreed so much, if not herding?  Polls agreeing with each other by much better than the margin of error says they should is highly suspicious, regardless of what methodology they're using.  That's not some clever Nate Silver punditry.  That's just basic math.


Well I am by no means a polling expert and I generally avoid the analysis associated with them, but from what I understand, French polling is much more accurate than American methods and even when they are wrong they are very much within a small margin of error; 2002 being the most obvious example which showed that error translate into a shocking upset.

You can't beat the margin of error.  I mean, you can beat it once in a while, but not on a consistent basis.  Every poll has a statistical margin of error that's derived from the number of people being sampled.  On top of that, there's systematic error that stems from whether you're constructing your sample well or not.  Now maybe French polls are really good at beating the systematic error down to nothing.  But statistical error is impossible to beat.  Again, this doesn't require any specialized local knowledge of France or French polling to say that.  It's just stats.  So if that's what Silver was saying (and that's what he seemed to be saying) then I think he's absolutely right.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #241 on: April 23, 2017, 01:45:18 PM »

wow. well i guess it makes some sense - considering Macron is already pretty right-wing.
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Barnes
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« Reply #242 on: April 23, 2017, 01:45:20 PM »

Who wants to see Sarko try to resurrect himself in time for June? Grin
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #243 on: April 23, 2017, 01:45:47 PM »

Le Pen doing very well in Northern France, many places getting upper 40's and doing well in the East.

Where are you seeing geographic results?
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mvd10
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« Reply #244 on: April 23, 2017, 01:45:57 PM »

Atleast Fillon does the right thing.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #245 on: April 23, 2017, 01:46:04 PM »

Le Pen is preferable to Macron, honestly.
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jaichind
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« Reply #246 on: April 23, 2017, 01:46:18 PM »

Too bad it is not Fillion vs Le Pen where I would easily back Fillion.  In a Macron vs Le Pen race it would tough for me to pick.  There are some issues I prefer Macron over Le Pen and vice versa.  Most likely I will end up going for Macron.
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Barnes
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« Reply #247 on: April 23, 2017, 01:47:40 PM »

wow. well i guess it makes some sense - considering Macron is already pretty right-wing.

More than ideology it goes down to the much vaunted but kind of blasé "Defence of Republican values" which is supposed to happen whenever the FN gets into a second round. Of course, the UMP/LR objectively ignores this whenever it suits them.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #248 on: April 23, 2017, 01:47:42 PM »


You can't call yourself a leftist if you support Fascism.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #249 on: April 23, 2017, 01:47:49 PM »

In election after election across the West, the Left has collapsed and the Right has either collapsed or adapted itself to the Far-Right. Each election has shown the "new left" being composed of white collar and minority, neoliberal, globalists against working and middle class nationalists. This does not bode well for those of us who support a Left detached from neoliberalism.

If it helps, the left here in Spain went from around 35% to about 42% (PSOE dropped 5 points, but Podemos/IU tripled their share). Plus our voting patterns do not resemble what you say at all. (either that or everyone is part of the "new left")
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