France 2017: Results Thread
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  France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140030 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #125 on: April 23, 2017, 01:04:31 PM »


At least he passed the five percent threshold so PS won't go bankrupt.
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Xing
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« Reply #126 on: April 23, 2017, 01:04:41 PM »

So, I guess it's another round of globalism vs. nativism, then?
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jaichind
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« Reply #127 on: April 23, 2017, 01:04:51 PM »

I guess it will be the legislative election that will be interesting on how Macron builds a legislative majority.  
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Barnes
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« Reply #128 on: April 23, 2017, 01:04:56 PM »


That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #129 on: April 23, 2017, 01:05:40 PM »

Well, it's (as expected) Establishment Crook vs. France, but nevertheless I had hoped for far more and of course for Place 1.

On the other hand, a weak France is good for Germany. So, let the sellout win lmao.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #130 on: April 23, 2017, 01:05:56 PM »

TF1 estimate

Le Pen 23
Macron 23
Melenchon 19
Fillon 19
Hamon 7

Sorry, but what are these numbers based on?  Exit poll?  Early vote tally?  If the latter, then how many votes went into the tally, and from where?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #131 on: April 23, 2017, 01:06:35 PM »

How long till we have a lot of votes counted? How long does it take France to get most of the vote in?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #132 on: April 23, 2017, 01:06:56 PM »

TF1 estimate

Le Pen 23
Macron 23
Melenchon 19
Fillon 19
Hamon 7

Sorry, but what are these numbers based on?  Exit poll?  Early vote tally?  If the latter, then how many votes went into the tally, and from where?

Prognosis, which should be accurate.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #133 on: April 23, 2017, 01:07:02 PM »


At least he passed the five percent threshold so PS won't go bankrupt.

yippee f**king yay
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parochial boy
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« Reply #134 on: April 23, 2017, 01:07:23 PM »


That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.

Yes.

Worth noting that this is potentially a fantastic result for NDA
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Hydera
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« Reply #135 on: April 23, 2017, 01:07:38 PM »

Purple heart FBM
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #136 on: April 23, 2017, 01:07:46 PM »

So are the place set or can Le Pen and Macron go back and forth for 1st tonight and Fillon and Melenchon go back and forth for 3rd?

Historically the first estimate has been very accurate - if they're confidently predicting Macron over Le Pen, it is probably the case. Fillon v Melenchon could go either way
Ok. Thanks
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Donnie
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« Reply #137 on: April 23, 2017, 01:08:02 PM »

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan at 5% is amazing
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DL
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« Reply #138 on: April 23, 2017, 01:08:40 PM »

In the end the final polls were very accurate and as I expected the shooting on Thursday seems to have had no impact whatsoever on how people voted
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #139 on: April 23, 2017, 01:08:50 PM »

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan at 5% is amazing
Turns out making a scene on national television can gain you some sympathy.
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Kantakouzenos
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« Reply #140 on: April 23, 2017, 01:08:53 PM »

I know it's not my election to really complain about, but I was a bit dissapointed Hamon didn't do to well.  I guess the Hollande was just too unpopular for Hamon to have a chance.  
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #141 on: April 23, 2017, 01:09:32 PM »


That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.

But what's the alternative explanation for why all the polls agreed so much, if not herding?  Polls agreeing with each other by much better than the margin of error says they should is highly suspicious, regardless of what methodology they're using.  That's not some clever Nate Silver punditry.  That's just basic math.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #142 on: April 23, 2017, 01:10:28 PM »

Les Republicains already calling for a Pro-Macron vote.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #143 on: April 23, 2017, 01:11:40 PM »

TF1 estimate

Le Pen 23
Macron 23
Melenchon 19
Fillon 19
Hamon 7

Sorry, but what are these numbers based on?  Exit poll?  Early vote tally?  If the latter, then how many votes went into the tally, and from where?

Prognosis, which should be accurate.

Prognosis based on what?

TF1 estimate

Le Pen 23
Macron 23
Melenchon 19
Fillon 19
Hamon 7

Sorry, but what are these numbers based on?  Exit poll?  Early vote tally?  If the latter, then how many votes went into the tally, and from where?


https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/

I'm sorry, but how does that link answer the question?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #144 on: April 23, 2017, 01:11:56 PM »

Poor Cheminade, got .2% again Sad
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Maxwell
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« Reply #145 on: April 23, 2017, 01:12:04 PM »

RIP the Socialist Party, and despite Macron moving forward (maybe because of it), this is incredibly rough result for the left.

I mean say what you will about the disastrous campaign of Fillon, but his party managed 20% of the vote despite their candidate being exposed as a crook. The right survives
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Barnes
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« Reply #146 on: April 23, 2017, 01:12:37 PM »


That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.

But what's the alternative explanation for why all the polls agreed so much, if not herding?  Polls agreeing with each other by much better than the margin of error says they should is highly suspicious, regardless of what methodology they're using.  That's not some clever Nate Silver punditry.  That's just basic math.


Well I am by no means a polling expert and I generally avoid the analysis associated with them, but from what I understand, French polling is much more accurate than American methods and even when they are wrong they are very much within a small margin of error; 2002 being the most obvious example which showed that error translate into a shocking upset.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #147 on: April 23, 2017, 01:13:12 PM »

Hâmon endorsed Macron.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #148 on: April 23, 2017, 01:13:25 PM »

Hamon endorses Macron
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #149 on: April 23, 2017, 01:13:28 PM »

Every time the PS nominates a good person for President, they lose. I guess that's a clear message from the voters.
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