France 2017: Results Thread
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DL
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« Reply #875 on: April 28, 2017, 12:41:57 PM »

Let's keep in mind that Macron beat her by a million votes in the 1st round. Even if 100% of people who voted for all the other candidates stayed home - Macron would win 53-47! Its not enough for LePen just to reduce Macron's margins among Fillon, Melenchon and Hamon voters, she would need to start actually winning over a majority of some of these blocks....which outside the realm of possibility.

I'm curious - what would be the image of the type of Fillon voter who would end up voting for Macron vs the type would who vote for LePen?

I would assume that the vast majority of those super-rich elite Fillon voters in places like Neuilly and the rich arrondissements of western Paris would vote for Macron. But who would be the Fillon-LePen voters?
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Umengus
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« Reply #876 on: April 28, 2017, 12:48:47 PM »

Let's keep in mind that Macron beat her by a million votes in the 1st round. Even if 100% of people who voted for all the other candidates stayed home - Macron would win 53-47! Its not enough for LePen just to reduce Macron's margins among Fillon, Melenchon and Hamon voters, she would need to start actually winning over a majority of some of these blocks....which outside the realm of possibility.

I'm curious - what would be the image of the type of Fillon voter who would end up voting for Macron vs the type would who vote for LePen?

I would assume that the vast majority of those super-rich elite Fillon voters in places like Neuilly and the rich arrondissements of western Paris would vote for Macron. But who would be the Fillon-LePen voters?

in Paca (south)... the right wing of UMP. i'm curious for the Nice result, a right wing city byt the mayor and Estrosi, a fervent supporter of Macron. But the (south) UMP militants hate estrosi so...
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Umengus
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« Reply #877 on: April 28, 2017, 12:50:41 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2017, 12:53:20 PM by Umengus »

Ifop poll

Macron 60 (-0,5)
Marine 40 (+0,5)

Turnout: 71 % (=)

with this result (the poll consensus for now), i'm curious to see if Marine can win Paca or Haut de France regions. Paca probably. Marine needs to manage a region to prove that she's competent.

The day was not very good for Marine with bad headlines in medias but she can save the day (and more) if dupont aignan calls to vote for her. It's probable. Answer tonight.

 

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Umengus
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« Reply #878 on: April 28, 2017, 12:55:15 PM »

miss le pen's party may disagree about the existence of gas chambers, but at least the are the best shot for jews or something.

the Fn party doesn't disagree with the existence of gas chambers. Each fn member who doesn't recognize it is excluded.
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« Reply #879 on: April 28, 2017, 12:58:37 PM »

Let's keep in mind that Macron beat her by a million votes in the 1st round. Even if 100% of people who voted for all the other candidates stayed home - Macron would win 53-47! Its not enough for LePen just to reduce Macron's margins among Fillon, Melenchon and Hamon voters, she would need to start actually winning over a majority of some of these blocks....which outside the realm of possibility.

I'm curious - what would be the image of the type of Fillon voter who would end up voting for Macron vs the type would who vote for LePen?

I would assume that the vast majority of those super-rich elite Fillon voters in places like Neuilly and the rich arrondissements of western Paris would vote for Macron. But who would be the Fillon-LePen voters?

Fillon voters in the countryside, especially those who are relatively devout Catholics and therefore have stuck with LR. Fillon was second to Le Pen in most of the northern/east-central countryside (not cities, where Macron or Melenchon was typically second or even first), and she should get a majority of those voters in the second round.
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DL
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« Reply #880 on: April 28, 2017, 01:04:11 PM »

For all the talk about who will or won't abstain...imagine if the run-off was between LePen and Fillon. If you think a lot of Melenchon voters have a hard time holding their noses and voting from Macron even against LePen...imagine how anyone who voted for Melenchon, Hamon or Macron would have felt about the French equivalent of having to choose only between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump
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Umengus
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« Reply #881 on: April 28, 2017, 02:03:30 PM »

BVA poll

Macron 59
Marine 41

Hamon: 71 Macron 4 Marine
Melanchon 41 Macron 18 Marine
Fillon 41 Macron 26 Marine
NDA 46 Marine 19 Macron (difficult to poll)
 
 
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Hydera
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« Reply #882 on: April 28, 2017, 02:04:47 PM »

For all the talk about who will or won't abstain...imagine if the run-off was between LePen and Fillon. If you think a lot of Melenchon voters have a hard time holding their noses and voting from Macron even against LePen...imagine how anyone who voted for Melenchon, Hamon or Macron would have felt about the French equivalent of having to choose only between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump


Its obvious that unlike in 2002. that the defeated candidates couldnt bring their voters to support the other because a lot of them are too prideful. Every matchup polling has Fillon, Melenchon and Macron only in 60-62% vs Le Pen because of abstentions.
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Umengus
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« Reply #883 on: April 28, 2017, 02:05:40 PM »

BVA poll

Macron 59
Marine 41

Hamon: 71 Macron 4 Marine
Melanchon 41 Macron 18 Marine
Fillon 41 Macron 26 Marine
NDA 46 Marine 19 Macron (difficult to poll)
 
 

BREAKING NEWS: Dupont-aignant calls to vote Marine Le Pen. Not a great suprise but good thing for Marine. Elections for the parliament in june can explain a part of his choice...
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #884 on: April 28, 2017, 02:07:35 PM »

DuPont-Aignan endorses Le Pen
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-04-28/defeated-first-round-candidate-dupont-aignan-endorses-le-pen-for-french-president
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DL
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« Reply #885 on: April 28, 2017, 03:46:06 PM »

There has been lots of discussion about Macron's wife Brigitte who is 25 years older than he is etc...

But what do we know about Marine LePen's personal life? is she married? Is her husband well known at all? Does she have any children?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #886 on: April 28, 2017, 03:47:00 PM »

There has been lots of discussion about Macron's wife Brigitte who is 25 years older than he is etc...

But what do we know about Marine LePen's personal life? is she married? Is her husband well known at all? Does she have any children?
She's a twice divorcee and she has a few children but they are in their late teens/earlier twenties.
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adma
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« Reply #887 on: April 28, 2017, 09:36:34 PM »

Incidentally, is there yet a link for first-round votes by constituency/circonscription?

Don't have a map or details, but Wikipedia (with a source in French) says Macron won 230 constituencies to 216 for Le Pen, 67 for Melenchon and 53 for Fillon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017#Background

Map by constituencies

Other maps on this website

And you can find all the data of the election on the government website

Maybe it's my system or my rough French, but I'd like to know *vote figures*, not just winners by constituency...
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Tirnam
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« Reply #888 on: April 28, 2017, 11:29:32 PM »

Here. If you download the file you will have all the results by regions, départements and constituencies (on the page "circo. leg.").
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adma
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« Reply #889 on: April 29, 2017, 05:37:43 AM »

If there were something less cumbersome to read than Excel, I'd be satisfied.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #890 on: April 29, 2017, 06:46:03 AM »

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.
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DL
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« Reply #891 on: April 29, 2017, 07:10:18 AM »

What do people think of Dupont-Aignan? Is he seen as credible by the French or is he seen as a bit of a quack?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #892 on: April 29, 2017, 07:12:35 AM »

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

People calling it political suicide all over the internet.
Him sitting next to Le Pen side by side will define him now.

What do people think of Dupont-Aignan? Is he seen as credible by the French or is he seen as a bit of a quack?

Quack, speaks to his voters as if he is about to save them from WW3.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #893 on: April 29, 2017, 08:05:21 AM »

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Mélenchon has not said who to support in the second round. However, he will definitely vote, and he will definitely not vote for Le Pen.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #894 on: April 29, 2017, 08:48:48 AM »

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Mélenchon has not said who to support in the second round. However, he will definitely vote, and he will definitely not vote for Le Pen.
The question is whether he will vote Macron or cast a blank ballot.
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Umengus
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« Reply #895 on: April 29, 2017, 08:49:38 AM »

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Mélenchon has not said who to support in the second round. However, he will definitely vote, and he will definitely not vote for Le Pen.
The question is whether he will vote Macron or cast a blank ballot.

probably a blank vote...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #896 on: April 29, 2017, 08:53:01 AM »

He'll probably write in "myself", "Melenchon", "Lenin", "Fidel Castro" or "Hugo Chavez" or something and therefore cast an invalid vote.
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Umengus
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« Reply #897 on: April 29, 2017, 09:12:54 AM »

Odoxa poll (04/26-27, after Whirlpool incident)

Macron 59 (-4 compared to 04/24-25)
Marine 41 (+4)

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #898 on: April 29, 2017, 09:14:53 AM »

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #899 on: April 29, 2017, 09:17:18 AM »

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.
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