France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 105552 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #850 on: April 26, 2017, 11:25:06 PM »


Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-19

Tie between Le Pen and Macron in electoral college, effectively coming down to how Melenchon's electors vote.
That's total bullsh*t, especially since she's not going to win that many departments.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #851 on: April 27, 2017, 12:10:24 AM »

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The survey only includes the following options:

* vote for Macron
* vote invalid
* stay at home

No "vote for Le Pen" option.

Via Le Monde.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #852 on: April 27, 2017, 02:30:09 AM »


Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-19

Tie between Le Pen and Macron in electoral college, effectively coming down to how Melenchon's electors vote.

Doing it with the fake new regions is incredibly lame. I'll try to do the calculations by Department when I have some time.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #853 on: April 27, 2017, 03:02:30 AM »

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The survey only includes the following options:

* vote for Macron
* vote invalid
* stay at home

No "vote for Le Pen" option.

Via Le Monde.

Encouraging abstention, the disease crippling democracies... I'd rather he had a Le Pen option, to be honest.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #854 on: April 27, 2017, 03:04:57 AM »

I hope Macron gets his act together in the next days because the factory trip yesterday, in which the workers booed him and embraced Le Pen (who was there at the same time), had really bad optics. Just as his victory party after round 1 ...

On the other hand, workers are a decreasing share of the electorate everywhere. It might have been enough for Trump in the US and almost enough for Hofer in Austria (Austria is a very working class country), but it's definitely not enough for Le Pen in France. Still, Macron shouldn't get too complacent.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #855 on: April 27, 2017, 03:10:54 AM »

I hope Macron gets his act together in the next days because the factory trip yesterday, in which the workers booed him and embraced Le Pen (who was there at the same time), had really bad optics. Just as his victory party after round 1 ...

On the other hand, workers are a decreasing share of the electorate everywhere. It might have been enough for Trump in the US and almost enough for Hofer in Austria (Austria is a very working class country), but it's definitely not enough for Le Pen in France. Still, Macron shouldn't get too complacent.

That factory is closing to move to Poland. It is potentially like the worst place in France Macron could possibly go if he wanted a friendly welcome.



Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-19

Tie between Le Pen and Macron in electoral college, effectively coming down to how Melenchon's electors vote.

Doing it with the fake new regions is incredibly lame. I'll try to do the calculations by Department when I have some time.

How would you calculate this by the way? You could do it US style with 2 per region + 435 allocated by department over population; but you could also do it by the number of sénateurs + the number of députés in each department, which would be a bit more logical.

Either way, St Pierre et Miquelon will be hysterically overrepresented compared to Paris or the Nord.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #856 on: April 27, 2017, 05:41:01 AM »

OpinionWay:

59% Macron
41% Le Pen

Le Pen gains 6% compared with a week ago, Macron loses 6%.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #857 on: April 27, 2017, 08:45:30 AM »

I'm bored, so here is a map showing the combined scores of "establishment" candidates (Macron, Hamon and Fillon). Together they scored a shade over 50% nationally, so spot the unhappy people.

Seems suspiciously similar to the combined left wing candidates map.

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Tirnam
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« Reply #858 on: April 27, 2017, 11:01:37 AM »

Ifop

Macron: 60.5% (=)
Le Pen: 39.5% (=)

Mélenchon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 39%, Le Pen 16%
Hamon's voters: Macron 81%, Abstain 17%, Le Pen 2%
Fillon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 31%, Le Pen 24%

Certainty of the vote
Average: 88%
Macron: 90%
Le Pen: 84%
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Umengus
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« Reply #859 on: April 27, 2017, 12:51:53 PM »

Harris poll

Macron 61 (-6 compared to their last poll, before the 1rst run)
Lepen 39 (+6)
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #860 on: April 27, 2017, 01:56:40 PM »

How would you calculate this by the way? You could do it US style with 2 per region + 435 allocated by department over population; but you could also do it by the number of sénateurs + the number of députés in each department, which would be a bit more logical.

Either way, St Pierre et Miquelon will be hysterically overrepresented compared to Paris or the Nord.

I'd say give each Department one Senator, and apportion 437 Representatives by population. That way, the Senator/Representative ratio is the same as in the Electoral College, and the total number is the same.

St Pierre et Miquelon wouldn't have any representation because it's not a Department. Along with other TOM/COM, it would be the French Puerto Rico. Tongue


I'm bored, so here is a map showing the combined scores of "establishment" candidates (Macron, Hamon and Fillon). Together they scored a shade over 50% nationally, so spot the unhappy people.

Seems suspiciously similar to the combined left wing candidates map.

It's more similar than it should be, but still, not really. Look at the western Paris area, Pays de la Loire, the mid-Alps area, or conversely Seine-Maritime and Ariège.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #861 on: April 27, 2017, 02:19:43 PM »

It's not that I think that her chances are that great otherwise, but am I the only one who thinks that openly cozying up to Putin is bad strategy from Le Pen? It only stands to reason that a large part of her appeal has to come from the "muh patriotism" types.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #862 on: April 27, 2017, 02:24:23 PM »

Harris poll

Macron 61 (-6 compared to their last poll, before the 1rst run)
Lepen 39 (+6)
Herding...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #863 on: April 27, 2017, 02:42:01 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2017, 02:43:36 PM by Rogier »

It's not that I think that her chances are that great otherwise, but am I the only one who thinks that openly cozying up to Putin is bad strategy from Le Pen? It only stands to reason that a large part of her appeal has to come from the "muh patriotism" types.

There's actually quite a tradition/nostalgia of seeing Russia as a useful ally in French political thought, as away of countering American or German hegemony in Europe, from the PCF to some Gaullists. I think Le Pen's main interest in Putin is his funding though, because foreign policy is a fairly apathetic issue aside from a few niche electorates.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #864 on: April 27, 2017, 08:03:11 PM »

Ifop

Macron: 60.5% (=)
Le Pen: 39.5% (=)

Mélenchon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 39%, Le Pen 16%
Hamon's voters: Macron 81%, Abstain 17%, Le Pen 2%
Fillon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 31%, Le Pen 24%

Certainty of the vote
Average: 88%
Macron: 90%
Le Pen: 84%

Looking like a blowout for Le Pen.
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adma
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« Reply #865 on: April 27, 2017, 10:07:23 PM »


Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-19

Tie between Le Pen and Macron in electoral college, effectively coming down to how Melenchon's electors vote.
That's total bullsh*t, especially since she's not going to win that many departments.

I *did* specify, "single-round-of-voting", i.e. same cast of players, not a runoff btw/ top two finishers.
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adma
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« Reply #866 on: April 27, 2017, 10:11:33 PM »

Incidentally, is there yet a link for first-round votes by constituency/circonscription?
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« Reply #867 on: April 27, 2017, 10:27:15 PM »

Incidentally, is there yet a link for first-round votes by constituency/circonscription?

Don't have a map or details, but Wikipedia (with a source in French) says Macron won 230 constituencies to 216 for Le Pen, 67 for Melenchon and 53 for Fillon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017#Background
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #868 on: April 27, 2017, 10:59:56 PM »


Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-19

Tie between Le Pen and Macron in electoral college, effectively coming down to how Melenchon's electors vote.
That's total bullsh*t, especially since she's not going to win that many departments.

I *did* specify, "single-round-of-voting", i.e. same cast of players, not a runoff btw/ top two finishers.
You did, the moderate heroes at the Economist did not.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #869 on: April 28, 2017, 01:22:09 AM »

Incidentally, is there yet a link for first-round votes by constituency/circonscription?

Don't have a map or details, but Wikipedia (with a source in French) says Macron won 230 constituencies to 216 for Le Pen, 67 for Melenchon and 53 for Fillon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017#Background

Map by constituencies

Other maps on this website

And you can find all the data of the election on the government website
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Tirnam
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« Reply #870 on: April 28, 2017, 05:07:36 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2017, 05:47:59 AM by Tirnam »

OpinionWay

Macron: 60% (+1)
Le Pen: 39 40% (-1)

Mélenchon's voters: Abstain 45%, Macron 40%, Le Pen 15%
Hamon's voters: Macron 68%, abstain 29%, Le Pen 3%
Fillon's voters: Macron 43%, Le Pen 29%, abstain 28%
Dupont-Aignan's voters: Le Pen 37%, abstain 32%, Macron 31%
Abstention in the first round: abstain 63%, Macron 28%, Le Pen 9%

Macron: 75% think he will win, 56% want him to win
Le Pen: 21% think she will win, 35% want her to win
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peterthlee
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« Reply #871 on: April 28, 2017, 05:31:43 AM »

Should be 40%.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #872 on: April 28, 2017, 08:18:04 AM »

miss le pen's party may disagree about the existence of gas chambers, but at least the are the best shot for jews or something.
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Jacobin
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« Reply #873 on: April 28, 2017, 11:41:24 AM »

Found this humorous...

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http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58feec89e4b0b6f6014a54b6
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #874 on: April 28, 2017, 11:52:37 AM »

Although Le Pen is gaining, I cannot see her surpassing 42%. There is no hidden Le Pen vote and the growing abstentations in polls are showing to hurt her as well as Macron.
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