France 2017: Results Thread
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September 21, 2021, 02:32:35 PM

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #825 on: April 26, 2017, 12:26:40 PM »
« edited: April 26, 2017, 12:35:22 PM by Tintrlvr »

I asked this earlier and no one answered. Why is Corsica so rightwing?

lol it's corsica.

Muslim immigration maybe.

I was not under the impression that all that many Muslim immigrants move to Corsica...why would they (apart from sunny weather)? Its remote, economically depressed etc...

"lol it's corsica." is the real explanation, I believe. Voting patterns are more or less entirely random and unpredictable to outsiders and based on local clientelist networks rather than political ideologies or nationally relevant issues.

Wikipedia does say that 4.3% of Corsicans were born in Morocco, Algeria or Tunisia as of 2011, though, so there is at least some immigration.
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Hydera
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« Reply #826 on: April 26, 2017, 12:30:14 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2017, 12:33:29 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

http://www.liberation.fr/direct/element/le-pcf-appelle-a-voter-macron-puis-a-le-combattre-apres-lelection_62541/

The french communist party has decided to call on its supporters to vote for Macron to block Le Pen from power.

Meanwhile Melenchon made a survey for his supporters on whether to endorse Macron or abstain with a deadline of May 2.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #827 on: April 26, 2017, 12:48:40 PM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

Le Pen spent 10 minutes there with her militants taking selfies. Macron spent 1h this morning talking with unions, them 1h30 with workers, booed when he arrived, succeed to talk with them and shook hands when he left.

It was a good move from Le Pen at noon, Macron reversed the situation at 4pm.

Polls
OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%

Ifop
Macron: 60.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 39.5%
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palandio
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« Reply #828 on: April 26, 2017, 12:50:09 PM »

I asked this earlier and no one answered. Why is Corsica so rightwing?

lol it's corsica.

Muslim immigration maybe.

I was not under the impression that all that many Muslim immigrants move to Corsica...why would they (apart from sunny weather)? Its remote, economically depressed etc...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/26/muslim-prayer-room-vandalised-in-corsica-after-attack-on-firefighters
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/15/corsica-mayor-bans-burkini-violence-beach-protests-sisco-france

It's remote, economically depressed and there are communal tensions, at least in cities like Bastia. Ideal conditions for the far-right.

I actually think that the presidential elections in Corsica are much less influenced by local clientelism than the local and regional elections. It's still quite amusing to see people vote for two conflicting nationalisms, i.e. FN on the federal level and separatists on the local level, but actually there's some kind of logic behind it.
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mgop
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« Reply #829 on: April 26, 2017, 12:53:35 PM »

it's gonna be really counterproductive if everybody gang up on le pen, especially for 2022.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #830 on: April 26, 2017, 01:27:32 PM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

Le Pen spent 10 minutes there with her militants taking selfies. Macron spent 1h this morning talking with unions, them 1h30 with workers, booed when he arrived, succeed to talk with them and shook hands when he left.

It was a good move from Le Pen at noon, Macron reversed the situation at 4pm.

Polls
OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%

Ifop
Macron: 60.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 39.5%
So, net Macron win or just a draw?
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Doctor V
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« Reply #831 on: April 26, 2017, 01:43:38 PM »

Carrying on the map theme (blatantly ripping off Antonio's one).

The combined score of the left (Hamon + Mélenchon + Poutou + Arthaud) by department.

Anything marked with a star in the 25-30% category is where their combined score was above the national average of 27.67%



The combined left below average in Pas-de-Calais. Christ.
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Umengus
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« Reply #832 on: April 26, 2017, 02:45:09 PM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

Le Pen spent 10 minutes there with her militants taking selfies. Macron spent 1h this morning talking with unions, them 1h30 with workers, booed when he arrived, succeed to talk with them and shook hands when he left.

It was a good move from Le Pen at noon, Macron reversed the situation at 4pm.

Polls
OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%

Ifop
Macron: 60.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 39.5%
So, net Macron win or just a draw?

so clear Marine win.
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VPH
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« Reply #833 on: April 26, 2017, 03:20:57 PM »

Asked this before but it got buried. What accounts for Le Pen's strength in some of the overseas departments/territories?
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Tirnam
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« Reply #834 on: April 26, 2017, 03:29:34 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2017, 03:34:53 PM by Tirnam »

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

Le Pen spent 10 minutes there with her militants taking selfies. Macron spent 1h this morning talking with unions, them 1h30 with workers, booed when he arrived, succeed to talk with them and shook hands when he left.

It was a good move from Le Pen at noon, Macron reversed the situation at 4pm.

Polls
OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%

Ifop
Macron: 60.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 39.5%
So, net Macron win or just a draw?

so clear Marine win.

No, a draw. It was a good move from Le Pen, her pictures are nicer than for Macron. But it's also very superficial, in contrary of Macron.  When she was there, she didn't explain how she will solve the problem, in fact FN published Le Pen's solutions after Macron's meeting with the workers.
And Macron shown that he wasn't afraid to meet people who disagree with him to explain his positions (like he did several times in the past) and manage to turn the discussion in a good way.

How Macron escaped
Le Pen played well, but Macron knew how to retaliate
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parochial boy
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« Reply #835 on: April 26, 2017, 04:20:29 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2017, 04:24:57 PM by parochial boy »

Asked this before but it got buried. What accounts for Le Pen's strength in some of the overseas departments/territories?

Of the ones I am more familiar with:

Guyane - major protests have been going on since March over neglect from metropolitan France. One of the major local sore points is the huge influx of immigrants, in particular from Haiti and Brazil.

New Caledonia - long standing tension between the pro-independence indigenous community, and the loyalist white settlers (who now outnumber the Kanaky)

Mayotte - similar to Guyane, in particular the huge number of illegal immigrants from the Comoros (who make up >60% of the population now). Mayotte is also French because basically everyone who was anti-independence in the Comoros moved there to create a loyalit majority (sort of, it's more complicated than that IRL) and there is a fair amount of antipathy towards the independent Comoran state.

St Martin and St Barthélemy - majority white, used to be part of Guadeloupe (which is majority black). That probably gives you some idea.

Polynesia - no idea, someone else is probably better placed to explain
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The Notorious REB
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« Reply #836 on: April 26, 2017, 05:04:34 PM »

Asked this before but it got buried. What accounts for Le Pen's strength in some of the overseas departments/territories?

New Caledonia - long standing tension between the pro-independence indigenous community, and the loyalist white settlers (who now outnumber the Kanaky)

I didn't know whites were a plurality there now. I'm leaning towards a "Stay with France" prediction for their referendum next year in that case.

Asked this before but it got buried. What accounts for Le Pen's strength in some of the overseas departments/territories?
Mayotte - similar to Guyane, in particular the huge number of illegal immigrants from the Comoros (who make up >60% of the population now). Mayotte is also French because basically everyone who was anti-independence in the Comoros moved there to create a loyalit majority (sort of, it's more complicated than that IRL) and there is a fair amount of antipathy towards the independent Comoran state.

TIL, I'll have to investigate that some more.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #837 on: April 26, 2017, 05:14:59 PM »

Asked this before but it got buried. What accounts for Le Pen's strength in some of the overseas departments/territories?

New Caledonia - long standing tension between the pro-independence indigenous community, and the loyalist white settlers (who now outnumber the Kanaky)

I didn't know whites were a plurality there now. I'm leaning towards a "Stay with France" prediction for their referendum next year in that case.


I double checked the numbers, I think the Kanaky may still be a plurality infact, but it is murky due the the growing group of people who simply call themselved "Calédonien" (who I assumed were mostly European).

The métis also generally vote more in line with the Caldoches I believe.
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tack50
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« Reply #838 on: April 26, 2017, 05:19:05 PM »

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.



Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #839 on: April 26, 2017, 05:50:23 PM »

  Do we know what the 2nd choice of Macron voters would have been had he dropped out or not reached the runoff?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #840 on: April 26, 2017, 05:55:52 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2017, 06:01:31 PM by Tintrlvr »

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.



Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?

Melenchon makes it to the runoff by a bit over 1% assuming the breakdown presented (i.e., half of Hamon's voters switch to Melenchon and none go to Le Pen). Le Pen stays at 21.30% while Melenchon gains 3.16% to reach 22.74%. Macron still leads with exactly 26.00%.

Percentages for all would be slightly higher if the unaccounted-for 20% don't vote.

Even if the remaining 20% all voted for Le Pen, Melenchon still pips her, 22.74% to 22.57% (which probably would only have been determined after the overseas French vote was counted, which doubtless would have been extremely controversial).
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« Reply #841 on: April 26, 2017, 07:02:14 PM »

There's a greater age difference between Macron and his wife than Trump and his wife.
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jaichind
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« Reply #842 on: April 26, 2017, 07:06:43 PM »

There's a greater age difference between Macron and his wife than Trump and his wife.

If what took place between Marcron and his teacher and now wife took place in some parts of USA and the gender reversed I could see how the teacher could end up being fired or perhaps even in legal trouble.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #843 on: April 26, 2017, 07:24:26 PM »

There's a greater age difference between Macron and his wife than Trump and his wife.
Culturally France is more liberal than USA as a whole.
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Республиканский бандит
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« Reply #844 on: April 26, 2017, 07:28:49 PM »

There's a greater age difference between Macron and his wife than Trump and his wife.
Culturally France is more liberal than USA as a whole.

It's still weird.
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Doctor V
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« Reply #845 on: April 26, 2017, 07:35:02 PM »

There's a greater age difference between Macron and his wife than Trump and his wife.

If what took place between Marcron and his teacher and now wife took place in some parts of USA and the gender reversed I could see how the teacher could end up being fired or perhaps even in legal trouble.

IIRC their relationship began after he left high school (at least officially). Still weird, but I really hope there was nothing illegal involved.

Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #846 on: April 26, 2017, 08:43:54 PM »

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.



Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?

Melenchon makes it to the runoff by a bit over 1% assuming the breakdown presented (i.e., half of Hamon's voters switch to Melenchon and none go to Le Pen). Le Pen stays at 21.30% while Melenchon gains 3.16% to reach 22.74%. Macron still leads with exactly 26.00%.

Percentages for all would be slightly higher if the unaccounted-for 20% don't vote.

Even if the remaining 20% all voted for Le Pen, Melenchon still pips her, 22.74% to 22.57% (which probably would only have been determined after the overseas French vote was counted, which doubtless would have been extremely controversial).

Has there ever been an instance of mainland France narrowly voting one way and overseas departments flipping the vote the other way?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #847 on: April 26, 2017, 09:47:29 PM »

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.



Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?

Melenchon makes it to the runoff by a bit over 1% assuming the breakdown presented (i.e., half of Hamon's voters switch to Melenchon and none go to Le Pen). Le Pen stays at 21.30% while Melenchon gains 3.16% to reach 22.74%. Macron still leads with exactly 26.00%.

Percentages for all would be slightly higher if the unaccounted-for 20% don't vote.

Even if the remaining 20% all voted for Le Pen, Melenchon still pips her, 22.74% to 22.57% (which probably would only have been determined after the overseas French vote was counted, which doubtless would have been extremely controversial).

Has there ever been an instance of mainland France narrowly voting one way and overseas departments flipping the vote the other way?

I meant the non-France vote (i.e., not the overseas departments, which reported first, but the expatriate vote, which reported last).

However, no. The closest would have been in 2002, when Jospin far outperformed Le Pen in both the overseas departments and the expatriate vote, but not by nearly enough to make it into the second round.
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adma
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« Reply #848 on: April 26, 2017, 10:28:35 PM »


Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?
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« Reply #849 on: April 26, 2017, 10:58:13 PM »


Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-19

Tie between Le Pen and Macron in electoral college, effectively coming down to how Melenchon's electors vote.
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