France 2017: Results Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 07, 2021, 06:25:19 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, أندراوس, Hash)
  France 2017: Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28 29 30 31 32 ... 67
Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 105333 times)
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #650 on: April 24, 2017, 12:00:35 AM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?

There aren't any of those. France is just one giant Midwest. Paris is Chicago.
Logged
306
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,077


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #651 on: April 24, 2017, 12:05:08 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 12:09:02 AM by Tintrlvr »

If Macron does win in the second round, which he most likely will outside of a nightmare scenario, then I think that's setting up an even bigger disaster down the line. When you boil it down, he's really a continuation of Hollande's neoliberal policies, and his main selling point is this cultural liberalism that I think can only get people excited for so long.
 
Base point, people don't like neoliberal economics. And if Macron is really going to tear down the labor unions and govern as a pro-business centrist, I have no doubt there's going to be another Le Pen that comes down the line who's able to better sell right-wing populism to people, and outright win.
 
You think it can't happen there in France? We didn't think it would happen in the US, and we ended up with Trump after the path was set down by the Clintons in the 1990s for a truly terrifying kind of conservatism with the Republican Revolution of 1994. Buckle up.

Macron is a man without a party, though. If Macron fails, there's plenty of room for the PS, or another left-wing alternative, to come roaring back without having to take the blame for his failures. I think what his impending victory shows the most is that there is no nationwide victory available for the FN in France, period, with the sole exception if they are lucky enough to end up in a runoff with a fatally crippled traditional right-wing candidate where the center and left stay home (though even Fillon would likely have won a runoff against Le Pen). The left-wing and centrist vote will keep reorganizing itself in different forms to block the FN at every turn, and the remaining traditional right-wing vote is not the type that is sympathetic to the FN's cause.



The French left can't incompetently govern forever just because of FN.

But Macron isn't "the French left." That's the whole point. They don't have to take the blame for any of his mistakes (but can claim him as one of their own if he is successful). Though TBH we may well be looking at President Melenchon in 2022 if Macron trips, which is not a particularly appealing prospect. At the least Melenchon is likely to be the leader of the left-wing opposition to Macron, while the leader on the right is less clear (perhaps Sarkozy) and the (traditional, non-FN) right IMO will be more easily co-opted by Macron than the left, or at least the part of the left represented by Melenchon.
Logged
Intell
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,744
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -1.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #652 on: April 24, 2017, 12:13:21 AM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

What a weird question, since West Virginia and Alabama have very different political histories.

Of course, but you get the point. Very working class and right wing and stereotypically conservative.

In the case of WV no, at least until 6 years ago.

In AL, northen unionised counties voted for democrats, up til Gore.
Logged
politicallefty
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,463
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #653 on: April 24, 2017, 12:26:16 AM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?

There aren't any of those. France is just one giant Midwest. Paris is Chicago.
+

I always thought the Southern coast was particularly right-wing (and I think also somewhere in Northeast France as well). I admit I haven't followed French politics in some time.

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,334
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #654 on: April 24, 2017, 12:31:51 AM »

Is there an idea of how certain minority groups voted? French Muslims, French Jews, French Black people, etc?

Jews - usually a strong constituency for the right. They probably voted for Fillon in big numbers. The FN were doing well with Jews, although Le Pen probably lost support over the Vel d'Hiv comments. Macron probably lost support with Jews, who are largely of North African/pied noir descent, with his comments on Algeria being a "war crime", and the left are probably perceived as being too close to Muslims.

Muslims and blacks - overwhelmingly for Mélenchon and Macron (basically see the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and places like Vénissieux in the Rhône to get an idea.

Note that, in France, collecting data on ethnicity is illegal, so reliable figures are very hard to come by.

No one can collect it at all?
Logged
306
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,077


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #655 on: April 24, 2017, 12:39:55 AM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?

There aren't any of those. France is just one giant Midwest. Paris is Chicago.
+

I always thought the Southern coast was particularly right-wing (and I think also somewhere in Northeast France as well). I admit I haven't followed French politics in some time.

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?

This first-round result made Le Pen's chances at victory even more clearly remote. She did not outperform her polling at all, and even maybe underperformed it just slightly. She's polling, on average, about 20 points behind Macron, with just two weeks of campaigning to happen. If there were some huge Macron scandal available to blow up in his face, Fillon and/or Melenchon would have made it happen before the first round. It's over.
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,899
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #656 on: April 24, 2017, 12:44:05 AM »

  How would Macron rate on the immigration issue?  I believe he was very supportive of Merkel and her acceptance of a large amount of refugees in the last years, and has said that lots of refugees/migrants coming into Europe is the future.
Logged
God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,446
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #657 on: April 24, 2017, 12:48:49 AM »

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?

I refuse to ever predict anything with certainty, but I'm reasonably confident that she'll lose, yeah.
Logged
Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #658 on: April 24, 2017, 12:58:19 AM »

Is there an idea of how certain minority groups voted? French Muslims, French Jews, French Black people, etc?

Jews - usually a strong constituency for the right. They probably voted for Fillon in big numbers. The FN were doing well with Jews, although Le Pen probably lost support over the Vel d'Hiv comments. Macron probably lost support with Jews, who are largely of North African/pied noir descent, with his comments on Algeria being a "war crime", and the left are probably perceived as being too close to Muslims.

Muslims and blacks - overwhelmingly for Mélenchon and Macron (basically see the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and places like Vénissieux in the Rhône to get an idea.

Note that, in France, collecting data on ethnicity is illegal, so reliable figures are very hard to come by.

No one can collect it at all?

Ipsos poll of the electorate (It's not going to help you so much)

Religion:
-Catholics: Fillon 28%, Macron 23%, Le Pen 22%
   -regular practitioners: Fillon 51%, Macron 20%, Le Pen 11%
   -occasional practitioners: Fillon 27%, Macron 23%, Le Pen 22%
   -non practitioners: Le Pen 29%, Macron 22%, Fillon 16%
-other religions: Mélenchon 23%, Macron 23%, Fillon 21%, Le Pen 15%
-no religion: Mélenchon 28%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 23%, Fillon 7%

The future of your profession:
-in decline: Le Pen 30%, Macron 21%
-in expansion: Macron 27%, Le Pen 24%
-stable: Macron 26%, Le Pen 23%

Household income
-less than €1,250: Le Pen 32%, Mélenchon 25%, Macron 14%
-€1,250 - €2,000: Le Pen 29%, Mélenchon 23%, Macron 18%
-€2,000 - €3,000: Macron 25%, Le Pen 20%, Mélenchon 18%
-more than €3,000: Macron 32%, Fillon 25%, Mélenchon 16%

How do you manage life with your income?
-very hardly: Le Pen 43%, Mélenchon 22%, Macron 13%
-hardly: Le Pen 24%, Mélenchon 21%, Macron 20%
-easily: Macron 32%, Fillon 25%, Mélenchon 16%

How the future generation will live?
-Better: Macron 35%, Mélenchon 20%, Fillon 16%
-Worst: Le Pen 25%, Macron 22%, Mélenchon/Fillon 19%
-Same: Macron 28%, Fillon 23%, Mélenchon 18%
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,012
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #659 on: April 24, 2017, 01:28:30 AM »

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?

I think it is almost certain that Melenchon won the Muslim vote given the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and also in NW Marseille, NE Paris and other patches of Muslim concentration, such as the commune of Trappes in Yvelines, though it's also clear that in at least some of these places, Hamon did abnormally well, and I think it is probably the case that Melenchon did less well with Muslims in these places than with non-Muslims (it just so happens that the most Melenchon-friendly non-Muslim voters tend to live in areas with a relatively high concentration of Muslims - not terribly surprising). That said, Macron also did well in Muslim areas for the most part, especially for a candidate running as a centrist rather than a left-winger.

Who are these Melenchon-friendly non-Muslims living in Muslim areas?

In America, White Bernie supporting college students often live in minority areas. Are they those kind of people? Hipsters?

Or are they just normie poor people who live in Muslim areas because they can't afford better?
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,012
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #660 on: April 24, 2017, 01:30:26 AM »

Also odd that in America, our minorities went with the centrist Hillary over the left-wing Bernie, while in France, minorities went with the more left-wing candidate.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,642
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #661 on: April 24, 2017, 01:45:53 AM »

Also odd that in America, our minorities went with the centrist Hillary over the left-wing Bernie, while in France, minorities went with the more left-wing candidate.
The thing is, Bernie tended to do well with Muslims in America. I don't have exit polling data for that, but Bernie did win Dearborn, MI with its large Arab population. It's the Black, and to a lesser degree the Hispanic vote that did him in.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,815
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #662 on: April 24, 2017, 01:52:08 AM »

She won African-Americans, Hispanic and Asian-Americans decisively, in primary states anyway. Of course there are large Asian populations in Hawaii, Nevada and Washington but those were caucus states so it's hard to infer.

Where are Muslims concentrated in Illinois? New Jersey? Virginia? California?
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,411
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #663 on: April 24, 2017, 01:54:31 AM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?

There aren't any of those. France is just one giant Midwest. Paris is Chicago.
+

I always thought the Southern coast was particularly right-wing (and I think also somewhere in Northeast France as well). I admit I haven't followed French politics in some time.

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?

I'd go further and suggest that until the results are against her for sure, Macron is like Hillary and thus liable to lose if even one false move is made or even one scandal shows up.
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,012
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #664 on: April 24, 2017, 01:55:51 AM »

Also odd that in America, our minorities went with the centrist Hillary over the left-wing Bernie, while in France, minorities went with the more left-wing candidate.
The thing is, Bernie tended to do well with Muslims in America. I don't have exit polling data for that, but Bernie did win Dearborn, MI with its large Arab population. It's the Black, and to a lesser degree the Hispanic vote that did him in.

Yeah, I was talking mostly about Black people. Of course, American Muslims have a much different economic profile than French Muslims.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,642
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #665 on: April 24, 2017, 01:56:56 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 02:02:24 AM by New Canadaland »

Also I noticed the gender divide wasn't very significant, with only 4% difference between male and female support for Le Pen. It was huge in Austria, if I remember correctly it was almost a 30% difference.
edit: found that exit poll, it was
Men: Hofer 56%, Van Der Bellen 44%
Women: Van Der Bellen 62%, Hofer 38%
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,974
Mexico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #666 on: April 24, 2017, 01:59:04 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 02:00:55 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Hollande has, what, a 11% approval rating? Racial minorities are not fond of the PS right now and, faced with a choice between Macron and Melenchon, voted for Melenchon, which is not surprising in the slightest considering that places like Bobigny have been fiefdoms of the PCF for decades. Many Algerians and Africans have been voting for Communists for decades.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #667 on: April 24, 2017, 02:40:57 AM »

Also I noticed the gender divide wasn't very significant, with only 4% difference between male and female support for Le Pen. It was huge in Austria, if I remember correctly it was almost a 30% difference.
edit: found that exit poll, it was
Men: Hofer 56%, Van Der Bellen 44%
Women: Van Der Bellen 62%, Hofer 38%

Get ready for your banning ...

Basic rules of this thread, in addition to forum and board rules:

-No references to Austria
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #668 on: April 24, 2017, 02:48:01 AM »

Interesting that the Dept. of Charente-Maritime once again ended up voting exactly like France as a whole, being within 1% of each candidate.

Just like in 2012.

It's the Vigo County and Upper Austria of France.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,882


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #669 on: April 24, 2017, 03:25:13 AM »

As far as I can tell, three departments which voted for Le Pen in the 2002 first round didn't vote for her this time round:

Haute-Savoie - went for Fillon
Savoie & Rhône - both went for Macron

By the looks of all three, you can get a pretty good picture of how the FN's support has changed even since 2002.

Savoie took me by surprise though, does anyone have an idea of why it voted so liberal? It has always been left of Haute-Savoie, but I expected that 74's economic dependence on Geneva and socially liberal Geneva suburbs would have meant it was the more likely of the two to vote for Macron.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #670 on: April 24, 2017, 03:29:58 AM »

Of the 12.000 French in Austria, most - obviously - live in Vienna.

So, here you can vote at the French consulate in Innsbruck and Vienna.

Yesterday, there were massive lines of 4 hours (!) outside the Vienna consulate.

This is not normal.

Why does France not allow postal voting for French abroad who are eligible ?
Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,723


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #671 on: April 24, 2017, 03:34:55 AM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?

There aren't any of those. France is just one giant Midwest. Paris is Chicago.
+

I always thought the Southern coast was particularly right-wing (and I think also somewhere in Northeast France as well). I admit I haven't followed French politics in some time.

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?

I'd go further and suggest that until the results are against her for sure, Macron is like Hillary and thus liable to lose if even one false move is made or even one scandal shows up.

Le Pen was even trailing Fillon after his scandal, so I'm fairly confident that Macron will win, even with a scandal.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #672 on: April 24, 2017, 03:50:59 AM »

Strache (FPÖ) congratulated Le Pen, but also said she'll fail to win the runoff because there will be a conspiracy against her by all the other parties and candidates and the media.
Logged
Hnv1
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,787


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #673 on: April 24, 2017, 06:05:20 AM »

Where we can get a breakdown of the votes around the world? Would love to see how the local Francs voted
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,854
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #674 on: April 24, 2017, 06:08:30 AM »

Opinionway poll has Macron Seen Defeating Le Pen 61%-39%
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28 29 30 31 32 ... 67  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.065 seconds with 10 queries.