France 2017: Results Thread
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #625 on: April 23, 2017, 09:03:44 PM »
« edited: April 23, 2017, 09:06:05 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

The takes in this thread are very, very bad. For all of the talk of Le Pen's magnificent performance among the working class and RE-ALIGNMENT, what has been missed is that this only really occurred in a few departments (Nord and Pas-de-Calais) and that both Macron and Melenchon were a non-negligible presence in every working class community. What's interesting is that Fillon was incinerated, barely beating Dupont-Aignan in some communes (!).

I guess you could point to Alsace and Moselle but Le Pen's performance in both places was pretty underwhelming imo. They both voted for her last time and the "real" reason why it appears she won both by huge margins is that Fillon collapsed (doesn't even appear Sarkozy 2012 voters shifted to Le Pen in huge numbers?).

Weak! Sad!

I'm not going to pretend to be happy about these results because Macron is awful and Nord/Pas-de-Calais produced some genuinely disturbing results but compared to my expectations in 2015 or, even in December of 2016, this is a relatively okay result, I guess. Small swing to Le Pen, collapse of Fillon, vague left-wing resurgence at the last minute that prevents annihilation, Macron sucking up right-wing voters etc. I'll take this tbh.
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Hydera
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« Reply #626 on: April 23, 2017, 09:05:42 PM »

For all the talk of LGBT support for the FN.  They got just an average of 4% in the two districts in Paris with a sizable gay population.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #627 on: April 23, 2017, 09:07:13 PM »

Too lazy to read all this. What areas did Fillon win and why? What areas did Melenchon win and why?

Who won all the weird territories?
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Barnes
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« Reply #628 on: April 23, 2017, 09:12:47 PM »

The takes in this thread are very, very bad. For all of the talk of Le Pen's magnificent performance among the working class and RE-ALIGNMENT, what has been missed is that this only really occurred in a few departments (Nord and Pas-de-Calais) and that both Macron and Melenchon were a non-negligible presence in every working class community. What's interesting is that Fillon was incinerated, barely beating Dupont-Aignan in some communes (!).

I guess you could point to Alsace and Moselle but Le Pen's performance in both places was pretty underwhelming imo. They both voted for her last time and the "real" reason why it appears she won both by huge margins is that Fillon collapsed (doesn't even appear Sarkozy 2012 voters shifted to Le Pen in huge numbers?).

Weak! Sad!

I'm not going to pretend to be happy about these results because Macron is awful and Nord/Pas-de-Calais produced some genuinely disturbing results but compared to my expectations in 2015 or, even in December of 2016, this is a relatively okay result, I guess. Small swing to Le Pen, collapse of Fillon, vague left-wing resurgence at the last minute that prevents annihilation, Macron sucking up right-wing voters etc. I'll take this tbh.


This is right, of course. As Hash and others have pointed out on numerous occasions, the French working class is not a homogenous voting bloc which can be nearly etched into one box or sense of ideas. Differences of geography, income, religion, etc., are much more instructive.

Outside of the echo chamber, it's pretty clear to everyone that Le Pen's result was fairly mediocre (not terrible as she did make the second round, of course) and by no means a sign of growing strength for the second round. As I pointed out, she's had five years of an astoundingly unpopular government, highly controversial opponent in Fillon, anemic support for the PS, and a total political unknown in Macron. Oh, and of course, a terrorist attack which was disgracefully turned into an "April surprise" by some to make the final days exciting. All this, and she improved her result by three points from 2012!
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #629 on: April 23, 2017, 09:16:03 PM »

The takes in this thread are very, very bad. For all of the talk of Le Pen's magnificent performance among the working class and RE-ALIGNMENT, what has been missed is that this only really occurred in a few departments (Nord and Pas-de-Calais) and that both Macron and Melenchon were a non-negligible presence in every working class community.

I mean, if that's enough to make you happy, good for you.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #630 on: April 23, 2017, 09:17:28 PM »

For all the talk of LGBT support for the FN.  They got just an average of 4% in the two districts in Paris with a sizable gay population.
All that means is the LGBT vote similarly to non-LGBT, considering Le Pen's 5% score in Paris. She did much better with LGBT outside of Paris.
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Hydera
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« Reply #631 on: April 23, 2017, 09:22:06 PM »

For all the talk of LGBT support for the FN.  They got just an average of 4% in the two districts in Paris with a sizable gay population.
All that means is the LGBT vote similarly to non-LGBT, considering Le Pen's 5% score in Paris. She did much better with LGBT outside of Paris.



Well 50% of LGBT of France live in Paris the and a ton of the rest live in the big cities + the Ile-de-France region. So what.... she might of outperformed with the remaining 5-15% of french LGBT who unfortunately arent able to live in cities?
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #632 on: April 23, 2017, 09:30:01 PM »

Well 50% of LGBT of France live in Paris

...no.
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1,066,892 Likud voters can't be wrong!
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« Reply #633 on: April 23, 2017, 09:39:02 PM »

unfortunately arent able to live in cities

Was this editorialization really necessary?
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #634 on: April 23, 2017, 10:30:28 PM »

Wow, Hydera is a huge troll.


Anyway, is there any sort of chance Le Pen could win? Sure this won't be a 2002 redux?
Only if the polls are 20 points off in favor of Le Pen, because Macron has had a lead of around that in second round polling. The polls were pretty good for the first round, too.

I mean, 15 days is a lifetime in politics. Anything can happen. Maybe Wikileaks will pull something out of their ass to help the white nationalist candidate.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #635 on: April 23, 2017, 10:38:30 PM »

Wow, Hydera is a huge troll.


Anyway, is there any sort of chance Le Pen could win? Sure this won't be a 2002 redux?
Only if the polls are 20 points off in favor of Le Pen, because Macron has had a lead of around that in second round polling. The polls were pretty good for the first round, too.

I mean, 15 days is a lifetime in politics. Anything can happen. Maybe Wikileaks will pull something out of their ass to help the white nationalist candidate.

Yeah, that's my fear. The Pro-Putin white supremacist forces of the world are united around Le Pen
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #636 on: April 23, 2017, 10:50:19 PM »

if the first round polls were off enough to exclude macron....biggest upset in a LOOOONG time...

if the second round polls would be off enough to make le pen the winner.....biggest possible french upset ever and would make mincemeat out of the polling companies.

the russian intelligence...i mean wikileaks...would need to drop more or less "believable" stuff on a whole new level and even that would not secure a le pen victory. even francois "baggage" fillon would have been the favorite and no one can still remember all of his faults ans mistakes at this point.

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #637 on: April 23, 2017, 11:00:36 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 12:32:35 AM by Tintrlvr »

Too lazy to read all this. What areas did Fillon win and why? What areas did Melenchon win and why?

Who won all the weird territories?

In Metropolitan France, Fillon won a patch of traditionally right-wing departments in the center-west plains of the country (including Sarthe, his home department), remote and lightly populated Lozere in the Massif Central (which is also traditionally very loyally right-wing) and Haute-Savoie (super rich ski country and Geneva suburbs). He shockingly lost Vendee to Macron, which fits the same mold as Lozere and the Sarthe-Mayenne-Orne trio and is the most traditionally right-wing department in the country. His best department in Metropolitan France was none of these, however; it was Hauts-de-Seine, the mostly wealthy western suburbs of Paris, where he nonetheless lost overall to Macron.

In Metropolitan France, Melenchon won in two traditionally very left-wing and rural departments, Ariege in the Pyrenees and Dordogne in the southwest. His best department, however, was Seine-Saint-Denis, the lower-income and immigrant-heavy northeastern suburbs of Paris, which he also won.

Everywhere else in Metropolitan France, either Macron or Le Pen led. Generally, there was a strong east (Le Pen)-west (Macron) divide, although Macron won some mountainous areas in the east also and of course won everything in the Paris metro except Seine-Saint-Denis, and Le Pen won a couple of departments in the Garonne valley. Macron's best department in Metropolitan France was Paris proper, while Le Pen's was, to much surprise, Aisne, which is a somewhat nondescript rural department in northern France with no urban areas of any significant size and that has significant left-wing history, unusual for a rural department outside of the southwest/mountains.

Outside Metropolitan France, results were relatively random, with Melenchon dominating some areas, Fillon others, and Macron winning a couple. Le Pen put up strong results in a few overseas departments (especially traditionally right-wing ones like Mayotte and New Caledonia, as well as Guyane with its anti-immigration sentiments over Caribbean and Brazilian migrants) but didn't win any, although she did win both departments on Corsica.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #638 on: April 23, 2017, 11:10:11 PM »

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?
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Hydera
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« Reply #639 on: April 23, 2017, 11:14:13 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 11:17:49 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

if the first round polls were off enough to exclude macron....biggest upset in a LOOOONG time...

if the second round polls would be off enough to make le pen the winner.....biggest possible french upset ever and would make mincemeat out of the polling companies.

the russian intelligence...i mean wikileaks...would need to drop more or less "believable" stuff on a whole new level and even that would not secure a le pen victory. even francois "baggage" fillon would have been the favorite and no one can still remember all of his faults ans mistakes at this point.





They dont have dirt in Macron so their just focusing on creating fake stories. AKA: Macron was secretly gay according to a fake news article. It spread amongst wildfire amongst FN voters and some socially conservative manif pour tous type LR supporters. But was laughed off by everybody else.

They also spread a fake article about Macron having an offshore bank account which was fake but some leftwing supporters sadly believed it.


Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?


He also won Mariselle which i guess had a lot to do with its muslim population. And yes it would be because he's the main leftwing candidate after the collapse of the Socialist Party this election cycle. A lot of muslims in france tend to live in poorer suburban public housing and have lower paying jobs which would create support for Melenchon.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #640 on: April 23, 2017, 11:14:44 PM »

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?
Mélenchon does take a more skeptical stance on refugees and is stronger on secularism than other left wing candidates, but that puts his immigration policy in the centre and wouldn't be at all scary.

The type of left-wing voter that Mélenchon scares is more of the upper-middle class pro-EU type than immigrants.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #641 on: April 23, 2017, 11:18:17 PM »

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?

I think it is almost certain that Melenchon won the Muslim vote given the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and also in NW Marseille, NE Paris and other patches of Muslim concentration, such as the commune of Trappes in Yvelines, though it's also clear that in at least some of these places, Hamon did abnormally well, and I think it is probably the case that Melenchon did less well with Muslims in these places than with non-Muslims (it just so happens that the most Melenchon-friendly non-Muslim voters tend to live in areas with a relatively high concentration of Muslims - not terribly surprising). That said, Macron also did well in Muslim areas for the most part, especially for a candidate running as a centrist rather than a left-winger.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #642 on: April 23, 2017, 11:22:01 PM »

If Macron does win in the second round, which he most likely will outside of a nightmare scenario, then I think that's setting up an even bigger disaster down the line. When you boil it down, he's really a continuation of Hollande's neoliberal policies, and his main selling point is this cultural liberalism that I think can only get people excited for so long.
 
Base point, people don't like neoliberal economics. And if Macron is really going to tear down the labor unions and govern as a pro-business centrist, I have no doubt there's going to be another Le Pen that comes down the line who's able to better sell right-wing populism to people, and outright win.
 
You think it can't happen there in France? We didn't think it would happen in the US, and we ended up with Trump after the path was set down by the Clintons in the 1990s for a truly terrifying kind of conservatism with the Republican Revolution of 1994. Buckle up.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #643 on: April 23, 2017, 11:27:09 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 11:30:02 PM by Tintrlvr »

If Macron does win in the second round, which he most likely will outside of a nightmare scenario, then I think that's setting up an even bigger disaster down the line. When you boil it down, he's really a continuation of Hollande's neoliberal policies, and his main selling point is this cultural liberalism that I think can only get people excited for so long.
 
Base point, people don't like neoliberal economics. And if Macron is really going to tear down the labor unions and govern as a pro-business centrist, I have no doubt there's going to be another Le Pen that comes down the line who's able to better sell right-wing populism to people, and outright win.
 
You think it can't happen there in France? We didn't think it would happen in the US, and we ended up with Trump after the path was set down by the Clintons in the 1990s for a truly terrifying kind of conservatism with the Republican Revolution of 1994. Buckle up.

Macron is a man without a party, though. If Macron fails, there's plenty of room for the PS, or another left-wing alternative, to come roaring back without having to take the blame for his failures. I think what his impending victory shows the most is that there is no nationwide victory available for the FN in France, period, with the sole exception if they are lucky enough to end up in a runoff with a fatally crippled traditional right-wing candidate where the center and left stay home (though even Fillon would likely have won a runoff against Le Pen). The left-wing and centrist vote will keep reorganizing itself in different forms to block the FN at every turn, and the remaining traditional right-wing vote is not the type that is sympathetic to the FN's cause.

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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #644 on: April 23, 2017, 11:30:13 PM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

What a weird question, since West Virginia and Alabama have very different political histories.

Of course, but you get the point. Very working class and right wing and stereotypically conservative.
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Kamala
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« Reply #645 on: April 23, 2017, 11:34:16 PM »

When will we start to get decent polling for the Legislative election?
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #646 on: April 23, 2017, 11:35:45 PM »

Do you also think the people of France will be like "Oh man look at what Trump is doing in America, do we want someone like that here? let's see the least Trumpy option" and vote Marcon for that reason? That line of reasoning is probably what led down Hofer in Austria and Wilders in the Netherlands.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #647 on: April 23, 2017, 11:45:49 PM »

If Macron does win in the second round, which he most likely will outside of a nightmare scenario, then I think that's setting up an even bigger disaster down the line. When you boil it down, he's really a continuation of Hollande's neoliberal policies, and his main selling point is this cultural liberalism that I think can only get people excited for so long.
 
Base point, people don't like neoliberal economics. And if Macron is really going to tear down the labor unions and govern as a pro-business centrist, I have no doubt there's going to be another Le Pen that comes down the line who's able to better sell right-wing populism to people, and outright win.
 
You think it can't happen there in France? We didn't think it would happen in the US, and we ended up with Trump after the path was set down by the Clintons in the 1990s for a truly terrifying kind of conservatism with the Republican Revolution of 1994. Buckle up.

Macron is a man without a party, though. If Macron fails, there's plenty of room for the PS, or another left-wing alternative, to come roaring back without having to take the blame for his failures. I think what his impending victory shows the most is that there is no nationwide victory available for the FN in France, period, with the sole exception if they are lucky enough to end up in a runoff with a fatally crippled traditional right-wing candidate where the center and left stay home (though even Fillon would likely have won a runoff against Le Pen). The left-wing and centrist vote will keep reorganizing itself in different forms to block the FN at every turn, and the remaining traditional right-wing vote is not the type that is sympathetic to the FN's cause.



The French left can't incompetently govern forever just because of FN.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #648 on: April 23, 2017, 11:54:16 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 11:58:10 PM by Tintrlvr »

Do you also think the people of France will be like "Oh man look at what Trump is doing in America, do we want someone like that here? let's see the least Trumpy option" and vote Marcon for that reason? That line of reasoning is probably what led down Hofer in Austria and Wilders in the Netherlands.

I do think Trump has hurt the far-right in Europe significantly, both because he is wildly and very publicly incompetent, and that makes voters think twice about Trump-like candidates, and because there are a certain number of voters in continental Europe who are knee-jerk opposed to anything the US does, which meant sympathy for far-right anti-internationalist/pro-Putin parties when Obama was President but the opposite now. (Not that I think these people voted for Macron, but many likely voted for Melenchon but would have voted for Le Pen if the election had been in April 2016.)
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Hydera
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« Reply #649 on: April 23, 2017, 11:54:28 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 12:10:31 AM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

What a weird question, since West Virginia and Alabama have very different political histories.

Of course, but you get the point. Very working class and right wing and stereotypically conservative.






Alabama - Southern coast of France. was formerly a bastion of the Left until immigration and cultural issues after rising immigration from former french colonies made a lot of people switch to the FN and vote for the center-right candidate like Chirac, sarkozy because of immigration.

West Virginia - The formerly Industrial + coal mining regions of northeastern france near belgium. It also was a bastion of the Left until deindustrialization starting in the 1970s hit industries there and coal declined in favor of Nuclear power. Then also a lot of immigrants from the former french colonies were resettled there to boost the population in those areas. Both factors created a wave of anger that allowed FN to rise there. Since the 90s, The center-right has gotten a lot of votes in the second round in this region despite being more economically right-wing since people prioritized ethnic issues instead of economics.
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