France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140009 times)
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #25 on: April 23, 2017, 09:12:47 PM »

The takes in this thread are very, very bad. For all of the talk of Le Pen's magnificent performance among the working class and RE-ALIGNMENT, what has been missed is that this only really occurred in a few departments (Nord and Pas-de-Calais) and that both Macron and Melenchon were a non-negligible presence in every working class community. What's interesting is that Fillon was incinerated, barely beating Dupont-Aignan in some communes (!).

I guess you could point to Alsace and Moselle but Le Pen's performance in both places was pretty underwhelming imo. They both voted for her last time and the "real" reason why it appears she won both by huge margins is that Fillon collapsed (doesn't even appear Sarkozy 2012 voters shifted to Le Pen in huge numbers?).

Weak! Sad!

I'm not going to pretend to be happy about these results because Macron is awful and Nord/Pas-de-Calais produced some genuinely disturbing results but compared to my expectations in 2015 or, even in December of 2016, this is a relatively okay result, I guess. Small swing to Le Pen, collapse of Fillon, vague left-wing resurgence at the last minute that prevents annihilation, Macron sucking up right-wing voters etc. I'll take this tbh.


This is right, of course. As Hash and others have pointed out on numerous occasions, the French working class is not a homogenous voting bloc which can be nearly etched into one box or sense of ideas. Differences of geography, income, religion, etc., are much more instructive.

Outside of the echo chamber, it's pretty clear to everyone that Le Pen's result was fairly mediocre (not terrible as she did make the second round, of course) and by no means a sign of growing strength for the second round. As I pointed out, she's had five years of an astoundingly unpopular government, highly controversial opponent in Fillon, anemic support for the PS, and a total political unknown in Macron. Oh, and of course, a terrorist attack which was disgracefully turned into an "April surprise" by some to make the final days exciting. All this, and she improved her result by three points from 2012!
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #26 on: April 24, 2017, 01:06:08 PM »

Is there a link for consulate-level results for the US and other countries? I have a suspicion about how Atlanta voted but I'd like to check.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2017, 02:49:04 PM »

Someone who did not have the last name of Le Pen could have maybe got away with that move, and gone on to challenge. Maybe like her sister, Marine was a reluctant frontiste but knew she had to play the long game to get to the 2nd round and is now hanging all of them out to dry. She will never get away from being her father's daughter.

Or they just want free publicity after an underwhelming result.
Its a strange move.

I think it's the later. Everything the Le Pens do is for publicity and has been for 45 years. I am still not convinced that familial falling out wasn't a con.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2017, 04:44:08 PM »

Does anyone know if expat votes in the US are broken down by state anywhere?

If it's anything like 2012, the French have their own way of dividing the US that doesn't quite correspond to states.
That really doesn't make sense, other to infuriate mapmakers.

It might have something to do with consulate locations. That's the only reason I can think of.

That should be correct.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2017, 10:53:32 PM »

Since we all like discussing unusual political theories...





Discuss how the Angevin Empire affects current day French politics.

I think it would be more accurate to say that western France is more fiscally conservative, while eastern France is more socially conservative.

Normandy, Brittany, Burgundy, etc, are strongholds of the PS and can in no way be called "fiscally conservative."
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2017, 10:55:34 PM »

Question, if there was a generic candidate of the right out there, without any personal baggage, who was running on Le Pens platform, but wasn't associated at all with the FN, would they be perceived as on the far right?  And would such a candidate have a chance of winning.  Before his personal baggage was exposed, it seemed that on immigration Fillon was coming fairly close to Le Pen politically.


The closest to that was Sarkozy '07 when he gained traction in the primaries for the main center-right party because he was best seen as somebody who could pull the vast majority of FN voters(90% of them voted for him in the second round despite Sarkozy running on an more economically right-wing platform just because he was one of the candidates of the main parties who they shared closest with views on immigration. (Which was helped because when he was the mayor of a suburban ille de france commune he refused to accept the building of public housing). 

He was perceived as sympathetic to the far-right but not considered far-right.

You guys know that the FN was a neo-liberal Thatcherite party in the '80s right? Protectionism came along as an easy cudgel to use railing against the EEC and later EU.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2017, 11:15:22 PM »

Ah! I withdraw my aspersions unreservedly, but I had never seen that thread before.

Sad that was a legitimate thought about Ukraine. Poor Lviv being stuck at the extreme edge west of that feel-good social liberalism and radical fiscal doctrine!
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2017, 07:31:55 PM »

Le Pen did well in a part of Argentina, getting 32%.

It would appear that Assomption is Asunción, which is the capital of Paraguay. Paraguay is not in the list of countries so I assume they throw it together with Argentina or something like that.

The same thing happens with Guatemala, where Tegucigalpa (capital of Honduras) appears in the list in the Guatemala section.

I would guess that the consular services in Asunción are run through the Argentine embassy.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2017, 01:03:39 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2017, 01:11:43 PM by Barnes »

The old SFIO* did just as badly in 1968 prophesying its electoral implosion in '69.  However, the PS scored an abysmally similar result in 1993 and confounded conventional wisdom by coming first in the first round of 1995. The French left has collapsed and reformed many times before and we don't really know how that will play out this time around.

*Which was actually running in Mitterand's FGDS coalition.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2017, 02:16:05 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2017, 02:17:47 PM by Barnes »

It really isn't difficult to believe that such a result would come about when an administration has a, you know, 4% approval rating. EM is not on the left and does not want to be on the left; neither will FG and its companions of Cold War nastolgists represent the mainstream left moving forward. Whether or or the PS's current brand survives is to be seen, but its position which has been dominated by its predecessor parties going back decades will not suddenly disappear.

As Al said, this will take a long time most probably, but imagine the years of waiting between 1958 and 1981.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #35 on: May 03, 2017, 02:28:20 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2017, 02:30:03 PM by Barnes »

So far Le Pen is a total disaster.

This whole debate feels like that!

Although Le Pen did get some jab about not being a teacher and a pupil which I chuckled at; Macron also said voters aren't as stupid as Le Pen which remains to be seen. Ha.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #36 on: May 03, 2017, 02:39:34 PM »

"How will you pay for that?"

"Immigration.....the EU......"
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2017, 02:53:34 PM »

The translation is really crappy.

What was that "motherhood" and "children being left to die on the street" thing about ?

Oh it had to do with the commercialization of surrogate mothers.

Yeah, this has been quite the train wreck it was expected to be. Too bad we can't have this classic television anymore!
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #38 on: May 06, 2017, 09:46:05 PM »

The ballots are called "bulletins" and are actually small cards with one for each candidate. When you go up to vote, you take all of them, go into the booth, and insert the candidate for whom you wish to vote into the envelope. I suppose you trash the rest!
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