France 2017: Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well 50% of LGBT of France live in Paris

...no.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?

I refuse to ever predict anything with certainty, but I'm reasonably confident that she'll lose, yeah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, f**king expats putting Fillon above 20%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since we all like discussing unusual political theories...





Discuss how the Angevin Empire affects current day French politics.

Hilarious that the part of France that was controlled by England is the part that voted against the Brexit-like candidate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A map of the winner in each town sized by the population:

It's official: France has now become the US, with a cool trendy urban party and a mean scary redneck party and no left-right divide to speak of.

[Antonio the Sixth]

  If rumors about FBM having unusual romantic attractions/and or being gay or bisexual gain traction, that might actually reassure some voters on the right, with them thinking that he might be a closet islamophobe because of this, sort of like Pym Fortuyn was in the Netherlands.

...what.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Switzerland (apparently the biggest French abroad community)

Because of course it is. Ugh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's a map of the top 2 candidates in each Department:



FBM/Panzergirl
FBM/Fillon
FBM/Mélenchon
Panzergirl/Fillon
Panzergirl/Mélenchon

Is it the first election ever when a majority of the Departments did not have the top-2 as the nation as a whole? 2002 might be a possibility, but I'm not sure.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Carrying on the map theme (blatantly ripping off Antonio's one).

The combined score of the left (Hamon + Mélenchon + Poutou + Arthaud) by department.

Anything marked with a star in the 25-30% category is where their combined score was above the national average of 27.67%

The combined left below average in Pas-de-Calais. Christ.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a greater age difference between Macron and his wife than Trump and his wife.

If what took place between Marcron and his teacher and now wife took place in some parts of USA and the gender reversed I could see how the teacher could end up being fired or perhaps even in legal trouble.

IIRC their relationship began after he left high school (at least officially). Still weird, but I really hope there was nothing illegal involved.

Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting that Mélenchon goes to the runoff there despite only winning a handful of departments.

That's thanks to Paris being a black hole for Le Pen.

Speaking of which, if one were to conjure a US-type electoral-college/single-round-of-voting scenario for France, how might the race have turned out?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-19

Tie between Le Pen and Macron in electoral college, effectively coming down to how Melenchon's electors vote.

Doing it with the fake new regions is incredibly lame. I'll try to do the calculations by Department when I have some time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How would you calculate this by the way? You could do it US style with 2 per region + 435 allocated by department over population; but you could also do it by the number of sénateurs + the number of députés in each department, which would be a bit more logical.

Either way, St Pierre et Miquelon will be hysterically overrepresented compared to Paris or the Nord.

I'd say give each Department one Senator, and apportion 437 Representatives by population. That way, the Senator/Representative ratio is the same as in the Electoral College, and the total number is the same.

St Pierre et Miquelon wouldn't have any representation because it's not a Department. Along with other TOM/COM, it would be the French Puerto Rico.

I'm bored, so here is a map showing the combined scores of "establishment" candidates (Macron, Hamon and Fillon). Together they scored a shade over 50% nationally, so spot the unhappy people.

Seems suspiciously similar to the combined left wing candidates map.

It's more similar than it should be, but still, not really. Look at the western Paris area, Pays de la Loire, the mid-Alps area, or conversely Seine-Maritime and Ariège.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I actually had some respect for NDA until now. Pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

The NF isn't going to be the same entity in five years. Infighting's gonna ensue after this, mark my words.

lol

[Antonio the Sixth]

Structure of the vote in every Presidential election since 1965:



Literally the worst result ever for the combined left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't have dozens of categories, and for most of French history the "center" has been affiliated with the right, so while FBM is an anomaly in this respect, he's not worth changing everything.

Lassalle was affiliated with Bayrou, sure, but the kind of campaign he's run this time has very little in common with traditional centrist candidates. It's much more reminding of CPNT's heydays.

Asselineau was a single-issue anti-EU candidate. Being anti-EU doesn't make someone automatically far-right, for crying out loud.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Look, the Left got crushed. Utterly crushed. And the legislatives will be another grim defeat as well. But this isn't the end; it will recover, in some form, eventually.

I mean sure, eventually, but you know what Keynes had to say about the long run. And God knows what will happen to the world while we wait for it...


Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.

I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.

Outright joining FI would be suicidal, basically a return to the late 50s and 60s where the PCF consistently won 20% and could do nothing with it. We need a strong social-democratic party that can actually win, not a rump radicalized left bloc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has the Fifth Republic ever seen a National Assembly where no ideological bloc has overall control?

Well, it depends what you mean by "ideological bloc". The First Legislature was kind of a mess, and only worked because De Gaulle was still backed by the grand coalition inherited from Fourth Republic (when that coalition broke down in 1962, he dissolved the assembly and got a more cohesive majority). The situation was kind of messy after 1976, when Chirac resigned from being Giscard's PM and all but became an internal opponent, though the RPR still backed Barre's government. Also from 1988 to 1993, the PS relied on occasional support from either the PCF or centrists to pass laws despite not being allied with either.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, if the traitors want to leave, more power to them! The PS will be better off without them.

I don't mind it either. But I do hope the remaining left wing portion of PS will join FI, rather than trying to fight on with their single digit support.

Outright joining FI would be suicidal, basically a return to the late 50s and 60s where the PCF consistently won 20% and could do nothing with it. We need a strong social-democratic party that can actually win, not a rump radicalized left bloc.

What I am interested in is getting the left in the second round, at the very least. We narrowly failed in the Presidential, and if the split continues the left will be locked out of a majority of legislative seats in the first round. I would prefer a social democratic party leading the left, but in the current reality joining FI is more realistic.

If you want the left to be competitive, Mélenchon is not the right person to go with.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Y. Varoufakis call to vote for Macron.
Even if he disagree with Macron's policies, he says that Macron was the only one who wanted to save Greece in 2015.

If he shares some of his GAME THEORY tips with FBM, he has this locked up!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.

Oh God, that would be PATHETIC.

What a sh*tty f**king choice we have. I think I'd rather have Chirac again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it might be a bit optimistic to suggest Hamon dropping out would have put Mélenchon through, don't underestimate quite how many people on the left Mélenchon puts off; a lot of Hamon's support would have dribbled away to Macron or even Poutou.

Speaking as a Hamon supporter, yeah, I would honestly have considered Poutou. It might be out of spite, but I also think he's a better person.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen has apparently lost her mind for 15 seconds. Insane moment.

15 seconds? She's looked pretty unhinged for the past 20-30 minutes to me.