France 2017: Results Thread

[Hydera]

http://observers.france24.com/en/20170505-france-elections-macron-lepen-offshore-bahamas-debunked?ref=tw

quelle surprise.

Trump supporters in reddit are still spreading it. Just like pizzagate, once they hear something it will always be true to their minds.

[Hydera]

So I cast my Flawless Beautiful vote (which I'm no doubt going to curse myself for throughout the next 5 years) today at the polling station in Burbank. The poll workers said turnout was way up from the first round, so that's encouraging. I also couldn't help rummaging through the dustbin inside the voting booth, and unsurprisingly I found a dozen of Le Pen ballots there and only one for FBM.

One for FBM?

Blue avatars: LE PEN LANDSLIDE!!!

[Hydera]

The last sets of polls done before the media blackout shows Macron doing well in Urban areas but in rural areas he's only 52-48. I guess i shouldnt be surprised considering the past history where even in the 90s. Rural areas always voted for the more populist nationalistic option vs the more cosmopolitan one.

[Hydera]

New York : Macron, 94,7% / Le Pen, 5,3 %
Chicago / Midwest : Macron, 92% / Le Pen, 8%
Boston : Macron, 95,7% / Le Pen, 4,3 %
Ottawa et Montréal : Macron, 90% / Le Pen, 10 %

Source: La Libre

Back in the 1st round for Le Pen.

New York: 3.15%
Chicago: 5%
Boston: 2.71%
Montreal: 6.36%


https://ca.ambafrance.org/Election-presidentielle-Resultats-du-premier-tour-pour-les-Francais-de-l

[Hydera]

My little South Dakota brain can't believe there are still people like this

cough cough trump cough cough


Also there's a small segment of french society who are "neo-monarchists".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Action_Fran%C3%A7aise

Its mainly popular amongst traditionalist social conservatives who are way into the idea of the monarchy because they "want to return to the glory days of social conservative 1700s france"


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancien_R%C3%A9gime

[Hydera]

This election was a weaker 2002 result, where the large mainstream of the French electorate united (for the most part) against the extreme right. Very impressive for Marine though, to improve by about double what her father got 15 years ago. I'm gonna assume, based on the increasing social liberalism of Western electorates, that Jean-Marie would've done worse in 2017 than he did in 2002. That means Marine had to break through even further than her father could have.

I'm ready to say that it's not all that impressive, for a couple of reasons.

1. Marine revamped her party, kicking her Nazi dad out of the party and making it so that many voters could imagine voting for it.
2. The political establishment HAD failed the people of France time and time again with Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Francois Hollande.
3. Le Pen polled as high as 32% in the first round during 2013-2015.
4. The left was in total dissary, the right considered coalescing around SARKOZY and ultimately coalesced around someone who did a lot of worse.
5. early polls had Le Pen up to 41%, and Macron was considered not that great and an empty movement that would collapse.

6. The FN reaching second round was really unexpected.
7. Also Jean-marie Le Pen made many racist and holocaust denial remarks that was widely condemned.
8. Plus there was no Melenchon like figure on the left. Every leftwing figure in 2002 even the communists called for a vote for Chirac to block Le Pen. Compared to melenchon who is silent.
9. Marine le pen made a lot of steps to "normalize" the FN for the public by expelling openly racist FN figures even her father and enforced stronger party standards to prevent members from giving racist statements that characterized the FN during her father. As a result 41% of the french public in recent polls considered the FN a "normal regular party" and 43% consider it a threat to the republic in contrast to 2002.

10. And also the global economic recession of 2008 has meant a rise in unemployment(despite growth in employment). Which has caused an increase in dissatisfaction in the economy, allowing for the FN to grow and making the Left to abstain more compared to 2002.

11. And also the terrorist attacks in recent years which has boosted support for the FN especially amongst the mainstream conservative/center-right.

[Hydera]

Haha so many leftists who claim Le Pen is a fascist. It's amazing how s*** like this continues

Can we just have a Brown avatar already?

We already have a maroon for Socialists.

[Hydera]

Haha so many leftists who claim Le Pen is a fascist. It's amazing how s*** like this continues

Can we just have a Brown avatar already?

We already have a maroon for Socialists.

Apparently Marine's rebranding is working. Wonder what her more mainstream conservative fans would say about her father, who is the real fascist/racist.

b-b-but He's not fascist!!!!

meanwhile in individual polls section theres always this segment that voted 25-30% for Wallace, 25-30% for Le Pen, 25-30% for AfD.  

like seriously why hide it anymore.

[Hydera]

More election data:

Vote by age and sex

Interesting that the old are very much to left, why is that? WWII memories?

Pensions, buying power, old political events (not WW2, Algerian War).
Le Pen is seen as a traitor to De Gaulle and France re Algeria.

I wonder how good Macron did with the Older women who want a younger man demographic.    /jk


Well the 60+ grew up during the Trente Glorieuses years and have more economic security. The 35-49 demographic is alarming but theres no other reason to explain it except that this generation at most grew up during the 1970s at the end of those Trente Glorieuses and most of their lives have been recession after recession. 1973, 1981, 1986-87, 1993, 2003, 2007+.

Which created a lot of disillusionment.

Le Pen is seen as a traitor to De Gaulle and France re Algeria.

Why?

Ok so let me rephrase this : De Gaulle is seen to have betrayed French interests in Algeria by Lepenists by pulling out of the war via the referendum, when he was supposed to "save" Algeria. Le Pen is seen by the Gaullists to have been a sympathiser of the Organisation de l´Armée Secrete (google these guys, they are hard ers).

Yeah The older demographic was also closer to WW2 either through stories or memories(experiences!!!!) and while they prefer the conservative/center-right. They will nonetheless vote for anybody but the far-right.

[Hydera]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=g-candidate&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Something surprises me and that's the under performance in the Southern coast of france compared to the North. What explains it considering other than the North, the FN is usually strong in the southern coast.

[Hydera]

Just glancing at maps of the French results, as someone with limited knowledge of French politics, but with a fascination with political geography:

I see that Macron performed very well in western France.  Traditionally, this was a conservative Catholic region.  I gather that its politics has become less distinctive in recent years.    So what would explain such strong support for Macron?  A relatively prosperous economy?  A Christian Democratic Europhilia?  The support of Bayrou?  Or of Fillon?  Am I right to see a pattern of Le Pen not performing terribly well in historically Catholic regions?

Otherwise, the patterns make sense to me.  Le Pen was only really strong in the northern rust belt, and the traditional extreme-right strongholds on the Mediterranean coast (resentment of immigrants, ancestral pied-noir anger, high unemployment).  But she also did well in northeastern departments such as Haute-Marne and Meuse.  Nationalist sentiment in a part of France that suffered greatly in the two world wars?  A traditionally right-wing region?  Or just economically depressed rural areas?  And there seems to be a bit of a Le Pen belt about 80 km north and west of Paris -- she did relatively well in the departments of Eure and Oise.  White-flight exurbs? 

Like Hillary Clinton or "Remain," Macron was very strong in the largest cities.  Not just Paris, but also Lyon, Bordeaux, and Toulouse.  Lille and the cities of the far south were exceptions, but not surprising ones.  He also seemed to be relatively strong in some parts of the rural southwest -- the political tradition there is left-wing, non? 

Breton used to be a conservative region, however it became irreligious as was the rest of france.  And mostly votes for the more socially liberal candidates. And the Bayrou voters in this region in past elections unlike other regions are more Bayrou to centre-left in second round instead of Bayrou to centre-right.  So it makes sense that Leftwing/Centre-left/Centre does well there especially since Sarkozy and Fillon ran on some nationalistic and socially conservative themes to take FN votes.


Also Le Pen did well in the Northern areas in general near the belgian border. Because obviously deindustrialization which is pretty self explanatory nowadays.


As for that Le Pen belt north and west of paris. these aren't exurbs. their part of the boarder northern french areas that have benefited from industry and became derelict after the 1970s.  The areas to the south of paris on the otherhand are rural and don't have as much industry. and rural areas tend to be more favorable to the nationalistic populist right.


Also to expand on the coast i found a convincing explanation for why she didnt perform as well in the coast as in the north considering thats one of their bastions.  Theres a lot of wealthy voters in the coast who moved there because of nice weather.  So usually in election time they vote for the mainstream conservative candidate. However when given a choice between Macron and Le Pen they voted for Macron instead of Le Pen.  Obviously the difference in the coastal french areas compared to the North is that the North doesnt have as much wealthy residents to push macron over by a little.

[Hydera]

Deindustrialization and the tension because of the Calais camp probably helped her.

Just saw that the latest results with 99.99% reporting are:

66.1% Macron
33.9% Le Pen

...

I predicted 66.3% Macron and 33.7% Le Pen, just a 0.2% difference !

Overseas voters might push it up to 66.4-66.6


Hoping for 66.6 because symbolism.

[Hydera]

Le Pen got 20% of the vote in the LA consulate.

ffs