France 2017: Results Thread

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OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (=)
Le Pen: 40% (=)

Ifop
Macron: 60% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 40% (-0.5)

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OpinionWay polled the legislative election if Macron would win next sunday. The only polled  metropolitan France without Corsica. Their poll shows:

EM: 249-285 deputies
LR/UDI: 200-210
PS: 28-43
FN: 15-45
FdG: 6-8

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives-2017/0212035461141-sondage-en-marche-donne-gagnant-des-legislatives-2084198.php#xtor=CS1-33

So with the 42 others constituencies En Marche! could reach the absolute majority (threshold at 289 deputies).
And for FN it's 15-25 deputies.

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So far Le Pen is a total disaster.

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Le Pen has apparently lost her mind for 15 seconds. Insane moment.

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For 2 hours. But when she somewhat danced for 10 seconds ...

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Flash poll BFM

Most convincing
Macron: 63%
Le Pen: 34%

Best project
Macron: 64%
Le Pen: 33%

Better president
Macron: 64%
Le Pen 33%

Understand people like you (was neck-and-neck before the debate)
Macron: 55%
Le Pen: 42%

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Flash poll BFM

Most convincing
Macron: 63%
Le Pen: 34%

Best project
Macron: 64%
Le Pen: 33%

Better president
Macron: 64%
Le Pen 33%

Understand people like you (was neck-and-neck before the debate)
Macron: 55%
Le Pen: 42%

Is this just debate-watchers, or somehow weighted to reflect the general population?

Debate watchers

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OpinionWay (pre-debate)
Macron: 61% (+1)
Le Pen: 39% (-1)

Ifop (1/3 post-debate)
Macron: 61% (+1)
Le Pen: 39% (-1)

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Ifop poll on the debate

Who won the debate?
Macron: 47%
Le Pen: 20%

It's the biggest gap recorded by Ifop after a presidential debate.

Macron leads also on several issues.
Europe: he leads by 22 points
Unite the French people: he leads by 17 points
Convincing: he leads by 16 points.

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Election night parties: in case of victory Macron will celebrate in front of the Louvre Pyramid (he wanted first the Champ de Mars, near the Eiffel Tower, but the city hall refused because of the inspection by the IOC in the next few days). Le Pen will celebrate in the park of Bois de Vincennes.

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OpinionWay (1/3 post-debate)
Macron: 62% (+1)
Le Pen: 38% (-1)

Ipsos (post-debate)
Macron: 61.5% (+2.5)
Le Pen: 38.5% (-2.5)

The attitude of Le Pen during the debate...
Worries you: 54% (even among Dupont-Aignan voters: 44%)
Reassures you: 15%
Neither: 31%

The attitude of Macron during the debate...
Worries you: 33%
Reassures you: 31%
Neither: 36%

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Final Ifop poll (2/3 post debate)

Macron: 63% (+2)
Le Pen: 37% (-2)

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Seems like Macron has the momentum.

What finished Le Pen off? Undecideds breaking for Macron now? Macron winning the debate? Le Pen plagiarizing Fillon's speech?

I have two events in my mind. First her alliance with Dupont-Aignan, it was perceived first for a boost for her (gain in credibility etc.) but she did a major flip-flop on the euro (and later she did another flip-flop on retirement age). That stopped her momentum after the first week after the first round.
And of course the debate. It absolutely killed her. On the Ifop poll tonight only 35% say that she does a good campaign, it's a total collapse from a week ago.
In fact it's probably the first presidential debate in France that has a major impact on the race (if it's confirmed on the ballots of course).

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Final Ipsos poll done today for Le Monde (with a good sample of more than 5,000 voters)

Macron: 63% (+1.5 in one day)
Le Pen: 37% (-1.5)

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En Marche announces that they have been the victims of a massive hacking. The documents have been leaked by now, they recognizes that the major part of them are real but that numerous fake are included.

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I'm not very interested by the leaks but it's my assumption that at this point nothing bad against Macron has been found.

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Turnout at noon in overseas territories:

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: 26.45% (+1 compared to the first round)
Guyane: 19.92% (+0.99)
Martinique: 19.53% (+5.6)
Guadeloupe: 20.89% (+3.24)

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Turnout overseas
- French Polynesia: 43% (+4 compared to the first round)
- Nouvelle Calédonie: at 5pm, 45.44% (+3.6)
- Wallis et Futuna: at 5pm, 53.72% (+5.57)
- La Réunion: at noon, 22.55% (+3.61)
- Mayotte: at noon, 17.74% (+1)

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Turnout at noon: 28.23% (-0.3)

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Turnout at 5pm
65.30% (-4.1)

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Down 4.1 points  compared to the first round

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Turnout projection, Ipsos: 74%

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Anecdotal but in my polling station turnout was down this afternoon but now slightly catches up in the last hours.

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Final result

Macron: 20,753,704 - 66.10%
Le Pen: 10,643,937 - 33.90%