France 2017: Results Thread

[Zinneke]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

The NF isn't going to be the same entity in five years. Infighting's gonna ensue after this, mark my words.

Infighting can ensue if it wants, history shows that, on a broader national level at least, whoever control the FN brand ends up subsisting, and at the same time can't reach power.

Just ask Bruno Mégret or the M.N.R

[Zinneke]

The sides will be the traditional Catholic wing led by Panzerbabby and the MLP/Philpot's wing of leftish rhetoric, no? (I won't use the word Strasserite, that would probably be trolling). I don't think it would rip the party up though as bad as what the PS will go through in the next few years, more like the weird turmoil between Fillon and Cope in the first year or so of the Hollande Presidency.

I imagine Gollnisch and the JMLP remnant identify with neither. And so there is that wing in FN to consider.

[Zinneke]

Since learning that Dupont would seemingly become PM under miss president, i looked into his stands a little bit....typical "anti-zionist" rhetoric.

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http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4955393,00.html

How is this anti-Zionist rhetoric? He is saying black on white Israelis have the same legitimacy to the land as the Arabs.
He is actually adhering to Gaullist principles for once...

And also, this has nothing to do with his alliance with Panzergirl, nor with the revisionism and anti-semitism of the more extremist elements of the FN in past years.

[Zinneke]

How is this anti-Zionist rhetoric? He is saying black on white Israelis have the same legitimacy to the land as the Arabs.
He is actually adhering to Gaullist principles for once...

And also, this has nothing to do with his alliance with Panzergirl, nor with the revisionism and anti-semitism of the more extremist elements of the FN in past years.

1) i used those quotation marks for a reason.

2) i never suggested he changed his position or something, i just wrote i learned about his positions on this matter and - in fact - they are contrary to the "new right" ideology.

3) i wouldn't put hamas and bibi on the same level and i hate bibi and i think his positions are outdated inside of israel and inside the new-european-right.

1) and 2) ok I apologise, I thought you meant this was a classic example of anti-Semitism veiled as anti-Zionism, hence the quotation marks. I would call his stance quite mainstream for French politics. Only Sarkozy was more pro-Israel and remember his comments about Netenyahu.  

3) you are right but I don't see him mentioning the actors by name. He is saying the leaderships of both nations have failed them by escalating the conflict. Could easily be referring to Fatah, who are probably a more salient equivalent of Netenyahu.

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There is nothing New Right about the influential parts of the FN - only Fillipot is even close to incarnating a New Right feel. Most of the New Right feel you get from FN is part of the PR. New Right parties for example support a crackdown on "islamic culture" using the protection of gay rights. MMLP has just come out saying that she will repeal gay marriage.
https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/858670866539970561

As for courting Israel, I need a source on that, I don't think Le Pen is or was ever pro-Israel...
http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Le-Pen-If-elected-French-Jews-will-have-to-renounce-Israeli-citizenship-481140

[Zinneke]

Putting a democratic state and Hamas on the same level is definitely anti-zionist. Also, he's clearly opposing allowing Israel to defend itself.

Source him referring to Hamas. Hamas is not the recognised leadership of PA, and only emerged in the 2000s. NDA is referring to both sets of leaderships, and he is criticising both of them.

And while your at it, post the death toll so everybody can evaluate what defending yourself constitutes in terms of collateral damage. Let's see your version of equity.

[Zinneke]

So the French right hates Muslims but they love the Arab world?

You know not all Arabs are Muslims right? And not all Muslims are Islamists?

[Zinneke]

Yeah, French politicians are all garbage on Israel. NDA is hardly worse than Le Pen herself, with her "even-handed approach" (Macron is probably more pro-Israel than Le Pen). All this is caused by the French right's hardon for their imaginary alliance with the French-speaking Arab world, which is something that won't change no matter how many Bataclans there will be.

And while your at it, post the death toll so everybody can evaluate what defending yourself constitutes in terms of collateral damage.

Not our fault that we do our best to defend our citizens while the Palestinian leadership want a high death toll on their side so they can get more money from the international community to line their pockets.

I didn't realise the Dutch were involved in the operation...

[Zinneke]

Since this big BBC interview is making waves, in which Macron calls for EU reforms and says, if he couldn't deliver on them, it would be a betrayal of his voters and lead to Frexit/Le Pen....

.... do we know what exactly he is talking about?

Afaik he mostly talked about closer integration moves.

Hmm...Macron is still towing a similar line to Hollande in 2012. Basically the idea that German fiscal austerity for the sake of austerity needs reversing to help France. He is saying though that its precisely his pro-EU stance that will help.

Also, France's progressives are a leading proponent of the Eurozone parliament for a common fiscal policy and more democratic control of the (semi-independent) ECB. The first one makes theoretical sense but is mainly opposed by the small and/or richer countries, and the last one is a bit superficial and risks over-politicising monetary policy. The anti-Brussels narrative stems from this lack of control and if things continue the way they are.

Keep in mind Macron makes these comments on the 1rst of May, to a British audience ;-)

[Zinneke]

I wonder who will fill NDA's political space after this?

[Zinneke]

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.

Oh God, that would be PATHETIC.

What a sh*tty f**king choice we have. I think I'd rather have Chirac again.

Ugh ing Chirac nostalgia.

[Zinneke]

It is quite interesting, how much of a meltdown the left is having about macron. Whereas backing Chirac in 2002 was seen as obvious. Even for the PCF

Less of a suprise

\Also PCF have called to mobilise for macron

[Zinneke]

A complete mess? There's like a 90% chance of a majority government.

Indeed, France already has a majoritarian system.
Parliaments are supposed to represent the people, not deliver stable governments.
If you want stable governments you strenghten the executive.
France already has a strong executive, amd an electoral system that helps it massively.And the Vth Republic model was supposed to deliver a President who arbitrates the parliament, but instead was turned into a political vehicle by the Gaullists.

Le Pen is just trying to Orbanise the political landscape. This is the real danger of the RRWP. They have contempt for pluralism in democratic society.

[Zinneke]

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.

The Belgian/Swiss stuff is usually not fake ...

They were pretty hopelessely wrong in the first round

They don't just pull the figures out of their arse. Pollsters are there already counting "illegal" exit polls and several scenario's show up. RTBF for example had 3 scenarios coming up to the deadline. One had Macron-Mélenchon (lol), the other two were pretty accurate.

Btw thanks Tender for these posts.

[Zinneke]

74% turnout is terrible. There's going to be millions of blank votes, so the real turnout is probably going to be below 70% - the lowest since 1969. I'm pretty sure most of those are people who said they were voting for FBM. Not good.

We'll not see the massive demo's after a victory that's for sure.

doesn't look very convincing.

Not sure I catch your drift, but considering the state of the last thread I think its best to keep American politics (not posters, politics) out of this thread.

[Zinneke]

Not sure I catch your drift, but considering the state of the last thread I think its best to keep American politics (not posters, politics) out of this thread.

oh, i am just gloating about the fact, that nearly every big global news site has the french election front and center and breitbart is doing only a little side-headline about it. ^^

the french election was, after the US election, another big power battle between "west and east" and the outcome seems to look quite different.

Ah ok, another misunderstanding.
Yes, it is pathetic, but then so was their last attempt to destabilise the campaign.
I'm looking forward to seeing their usual hideouts go ape.

[Zinneke]

Woah, 4 million votes for Monsieur LeBlanc

[Zinneke]

So Le Pen basically calls for dissolution of FN brand, and a new patriotic party.
What needs to happen is the dissolution of the Le Pen brand.

I think this will also create a split between the hard right (with some LR like Morano) and the far right.

So, what is the possibility of a revolt led by her niece?

Her niece is still way too inexperienced.

[Zinneke]

More election data:

Vote by age and sex

Interesting that the old are very much to left, why is that? WWII memories?

Pensions, buying power, old political events (not WW2, Algerian War).
Le Pen is seen as a traitor to De Gaulle and France re Algeria.

[Zinneke]

Wow. France's olds are huge FFs!

LOL no, they are the only ones who voted for Fillon.

Then by your logic they should have heavily voted for LePen but they didn't, voted strongest for Macron.

Doesn't work like that.

[Zinneke]

Le Pen is seen as a traitor to De Gaulle and France re Algeria.

Why?

Ok so let me rephrase this : De Gaulle is seen to have betrayed French interests in Algeria by Lepenists by pulling out of the war via the referendum, when he was supposed to "save" Algeria. Jean-Marie Le Pen is seen by the Gaullists to have been a sympathiser of the Organisation de l´Armée Secrete (google these guys, they are hard ers).

There has always been historic tensions between the Gaullists and the Frontistes. Le Pen criticises De Gaulle's role in WW2 a lot, etc, and for a lot of these elderly voters they are put off by that.

[Zinneke]

Var will probably go Macron once Toulon is included.

Not so sure, Toulon has a historically strong FN.

Orange should be a good indication as to whether Le Pen lost the Southern vote. Bompard endorsed Fillon IIRC. Le Pen has won marginally there and I really think her "poor" performance in the South is overstated. She probably has similar shares to what she had in the regionals.

[Zinneke]

Var will probably go Macron once Toulon is included.

Not so sure, Toulon has a historically strong FN.

Orange should be a good indication as to whether Le Pen lost the Southern vote. Bompard endorsed Fillon IIRC. Le Pen has won marginally there and I really think her "poor" performance in the South is overstated. She probably has similar shares to what she had in the regionals.

Macron is apparently in the lead with 56% in Toulon.
https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/politique/emmanuel-macron-en-tete-marseille-selon-des-resultats-partiels-et-toulon-1494191483

Yup, and Macron wins Béziers too, where Ménard is currently sitting. Impressive.

[Zinneke]

piss off

[Zinneke]

I find the OMG Russia narrative annoying, but clandestine interference is obviously much worse than what Obama did.

This. Also, it has a different effect on French politics (that we will never know unlike Clinton).
So hopefully this subject is dropped.

[Zinneke]

Knives are already out in the FN ranks. Panzerdaddy says Phillipot should make himself discrete, and that it will be the FN congress to decide how to move onwards from here. Phillipot responds by reminding his audience of Panzerdaddy's 2002 second round score.