France 2017: Results Thread

[catographer]

Also just caught this on Wikipedia before it was deleted:

[Hindsight was 2020]

Someone explain what Clinton's tweet means. Is she referencing how the media poo-poos her attempts to point out Russian interference as a reason for her loss?

Yep

[mountvernon]

Just glancing at maps of the French results, as someone with limited knowledge of French politics, but with a fascination with political geography:

I see that Macron performed very well in western France.  Traditionally, this was a conservative Catholic region.  I gather that its politics has become less distinctive in recent years.    So what would explain such strong support for Macron?  A relatively prosperous economy?  A Christian Democratic Europhilia?  The support of Bayrou?  Or of Fillon?  Am I right to see a pattern of Le Pen not performing terribly well in historically Catholic regions?

Otherwise, the patterns make sense to me.  Le Pen was only really strong in the northern rust belt, and the traditional extreme-right strongholds on the Mediterranean coast (resentment of immigrants, ancestral pied-noir anger, high unemployment).  But she also did well in northeastern departments such as Haute-Marne and Meuse.  Nationalist sentiment in a part of France that suffered greatly in the two world wars?  A traditionally right-wing region?  Or just economically depressed rural areas?  And there seems to be a bit of a Le Pen belt about 80 km north and west of Paris -- she did relatively well in the departments of Eure and Oise.  White-flight exurbs? 

Like Hillary Clinton or "Remain," Macron was very strong in the largest cities.  Not just Paris, but also Lyon, Bordeaux, and Toulouse.  Lille and the cities of the far south were exceptions, but not surprising ones.  He also seemed to be relatively strong in some parts of the rural southwest -- the political tradition there is left-wing, non? 

[The Dowager Mod]

[Antonio the Sixth]

FBM won 168 of the 174 municipalities with over 25k inhabitants. The Realignment is real, folks.

[Hydera]

Just glancing at maps of the French results, as someone with limited knowledge of French politics, but with a fascination with political geography:

I see that Macron performed very well in western France.  Traditionally, this was a conservative Catholic region.  I gather that its politics has become less distinctive in recent years.    So what would explain such strong support for Macron?  A relatively prosperous economy?  A Christian Democratic Europhilia?  The support of Bayrou?  Or of Fillon?  Am I right to see a pattern of Le Pen not performing terribly well in historically Catholic regions?

Otherwise, the patterns make sense to me.  Le Pen was only really strong in the northern rust belt, and the traditional extreme-right strongholds on the Mediterranean coast (resentment of immigrants, ancestral pied-noir anger, high unemployment).  But she also did well in northeastern departments such as Haute-Marne and Meuse.  Nationalist sentiment in a part of France that suffered greatly in the two world wars?  A traditionally right-wing region?  Or just economically depressed rural areas?  And there seems to be a bit of a Le Pen belt about 80 km north and west of Paris -- she did relatively well in the departments of Eure and Oise.  White-flight exurbs? 

Like Hillary Clinton or "Remain," Macron was very strong in the largest cities.  Not just Paris, but also Lyon, Bordeaux, and Toulouse.  Lille and the cities of the far south were exceptions, but not surprising ones.  He also seemed to be relatively strong in some parts of the rural southwest -- the political tradition there is left-wing, non? 

Breton used to be a conservative region, however it became irreligious as was the rest of france.  And mostly votes for the more socially liberal candidates. And the Bayrou voters in this region in past elections unlike other regions are more Bayrou to centre-left in second round instead of Bayrou to centre-right.  So it makes sense that Leftwing/Centre-left/Centre does well there especially since Sarkozy and Fillon ran on some nationalistic and socially conservative themes to take FN votes.


Also Le Pen did well in the Northern areas in general near the belgian border. Because obviously deindustrialization which is pretty self explanatory nowadays.


As for that Le Pen belt north and west of paris. these aren't exurbs. their part of the boarder northern french areas that have benefited from industry and became derelict after the 1970s.  The areas to the south of paris on the otherhand are rural and don't have as much industry. and rural areas tend to be more favorable to the nationalistic populist right.


Also to expand on the coast i found a convincing explanation for why she didnt perform as well in the coast as in the north considering thats one of their bastions.  Theres a lot of wealthy voters in the coast who moved there because of nice weather.  So usually in election time they vote for the mainstream conservative candidate. However when given a choice between Macron and Le Pen they voted for Macron instead of Le Pen.  Obviously the difference in the coastal french areas compared to the North is that the North doesnt have as much wealthy residents to push macron over by a little.

[Tender Branson]

Just saw that the latest results with 99.99% reporting are:

66.1% Macron
33.9% Le Pen

...

I predicted 66.3% Macron and 33.7% Le Pen, just a 0.2% difference !

[Tender Branson]

Le Pen won only 2 departments ?

Not all that surprising considering her 2-1 loss France-wide, but still weird ...

[Hydera]

Deindustrialization and the tension because of the Calais camp probably helped her.

Just saw that the latest results with 99.99% reporting are:

66.1% Macron
33.9% Le Pen

...

I predicted 66.3% Macron and 33.7% Le Pen, just a 0.2% difference !

Overseas voters might push it up to 66.4-66.6


Hoping for 66.6 because symbolism.

[Tender Branson]

Deindustrialization and the tension because of the Calais camp probably helped her.

Just saw that the latest results with 99.99% reporting are:

66.1% Macron
33.9% Le Pen

...

I predicted 66.3% Macron and 33.7% Le Pen, just a 0.2% difference !

Overseas voters might push it up to 66.4-66.6


Hoping for 66.6 because symbolism.

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if this has been posted overnight, but La-Croix has a nice map:

http://www.la-croix.com/France/Politique/carte-resultats-second-tour-lelection-presidentielle-2017-05-07-1200845137

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Just glancing at maps of the French results, as someone with limited knowledge of French politics, but with a fascination with political geography:

I see that Macron performed very well in western France.  Traditionally, this was a conservative Catholic region.  I gather that its politics has become less distinctive in recent years.    So what would explain such strong support for Macron?  A relatively prosperous economy?  A Christian Democratic Europhilia?  The support of Bayrou?  Or of Fillon?  Am I right to see a pattern of Le Pen not performing terribly well in historically Catholic regions?

Otherwise, the patterns make sense to me.  Le Pen was only really strong in the northern rust belt, and the traditional extreme-right strongholds on the Mediterranean coast (resentment of immigrants, ancestral pied-noir anger, high unemployment).  But she also did well in northeastern departments such as Haute-Marne and Meuse.  Nationalist sentiment in a part of France that suffered greatly in the two world wars?  A traditionally right-wing region?  Or just economically depressed rural areas?  And there seems to be a bit of a Le Pen belt about 80 km north and west of Paris -- she did relatively well in the departments of Eure and Oise.  White-flight exurbs?  

Like Hillary Clinton or "Remain," Macron was very strong in the largest cities.  Not just Paris, but also Lyon, Bordeaux, and Toulouse.  Lille and the cities of the far south were exceptions, but not surprising ones.  He also seemed to be relatively strong in some parts of the rural southwest -- the political tradition there is left-wing, non?  

Definitely a lot of Fillon/Macron voters in those parts of the West with a strong Catholic tradition.  In the first round practicing Catholics gave a large proportion of their votes to Fillon, but a very small proportion to Le Pen, according to the Ipsos poll.   You may be onto something with the pro-Europe link: Check out Hash's map and blog post on the 2005 EU referendum.  See that area of support running from Vendee north to Normandy?

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

I think he meant the French Abroad vote. I'm pretty sure they will push him up to at least 66.5%.

[Tender Branson]

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

I think he meant the French Abroad vote. I'm pretty sure they will push him up to at least 66.5%.

Yeah, I was talking about the French Abroad vote. It's almost completely in. There's only 140K left if you look at the Interior Ministry page. It's 99.99% counted.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

I think he meant the French Abroad vote. I'm pretty sure they will push him up to at least 66.5%.

Yeah, I was talking about the French Abroad vote. It's almost completely in. There's only 140K left if you look at the Interior Ministry page. It's 99.99% counted.

What page are you looking at?

[Tender Branson]

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

I think he meant the French Abroad vote. I'm pretty sure they will push him up to at least 66.5%.

Yeah, I was talking about the French Abroad vote. It's almost completely in. There's only 140K left if you look at the Interior Ministry page. It's 99.99% counted.

What page are you looking at?

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

Take a look at "inscrits" in both rounds.

Compare the current 2nd round figure (47.448.929) with the final of the 1st round (47.582.183):

It means that only 140.000 eligible votes are not yet younted. The vast majority of the French abroad vote is already accounted for in the overall results, even though the total numbers weren't posted yet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, the "inscrits" figures have usually shifted between the two rounds - both downwards and upwards, depending on the election. I have no clue why that is, but they did. So there might be a couple more votes left (or a couple less).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, FBM's real share of the electorate (43.63%) is actually lower than Mitterrand's in 1988, Giscard's in 1974, and De Gaulle's in 1965. Not exactly a whopping mandate.

[Tender Branson]

Actually, the "inscrits" figures have usually shifted between the two rounds - both downwards and upwards, depending on the election. I have no clue why that is, but they did. So there might be a couple more votes left (or a couple less).

True. Usually the number of registered voters in the two rounds are about the same (+/- 50K), and considering French abroad only have a 50% turnout, there are only some 70k real votes left that were cast.

No big deal.

Macron will go no higher than 66.1% anymore.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm really relieved that Macron won the election fair and square, though it is embrassing that a person like Le Pen got a third of the vote. Nevertheless, he has a tremendous challenge ahead of him, and I wish him the very best. I curious how he will handle the legislative without an own majority. But probably the French conservatives are more willing to cooperate than the (US)Republicans.

At least the pollsters were right; I guess we Americans should engage French pollsters in 2020. LOL.

[Tender Branson]

At least the pollsters were right; I guess we Americans should engage French pollsters in 2020. LOL.

Were they ?

They were off by 2-5%.

American pollsters actually did a better job nationally with Clinton/Trump (off by 1) ...

In Ille-de-France for example, pollsters said Macron will beat Le Pen by 68-32.

He beat her by 79-21 ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

If valid turnout had been comparable to 2012, FBM's percentage would only translate into 58% of the vote. Really not as impressive as it looks.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'll just leave this here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll just leave this here.

It's gotta be trolling, right? Even alt-righters aren't that.... that.... something. I don't even know what that is.

[Tirnam]

Final result

Macron: 20,753,704 - 66.10%
Le Pen: 10,643,937 - 33.90%