TX - Texas Lyceum: Castro +4, Cruz/O'Rourle Tied

[SCNCmod]

There was another poll last year that also had Castro beating Cruz.  I do think Joaquin would have a chance... to eek out a win (much better than O'Rourke... & Castro has less liabilities).  

Castro would likely excite/ motivate many Latino's & Millennials to head to the polls in an off year election (and considering that last off-year election Texas had 28.5% turnout & Texas is now a Minority -Majority State, population wise ... that could make a big difference).

Couple that with motivated Women's march voters (esp considering the next Supreme court Nom will likely be in play & a win in Texas could theoretically shift control of Senate... allowing Dem's to stall a nom for a year, like Repub's did with Garland) + less enthusiasm among many R's for Cruz & Trump's low approval numbers ... Could equal a perfect storm, winning formula.  

Against anyone but Cruz, I would say no chance... But if Castro were to win, he would have 6 years for the Demographic shift towards Dems to come into play, before he had to run again.

[SCNCmod]

Lyin' Ted is gonna win & Castro is a boy. But I think Dems should target a margin of 5-6 odd !

Between a Democratic House in 2018 & Lyin' Ted losing, I will take a Lyin' Ted loss. I think it should be a massive priority for Dems to boot Lyin' Ted out by 2024 atleast !

Many "Boys" get elected to the Senate.  And I just don't see a high off year election turnout by Republicans to vote for Cruz... but a potential motivated turnout among Dems in TX for someone like Castro (this will likely be the key to the election, seeing as last mid-term only had 28.5% turnout... vs double that when Cruz was elected- which was also a year that had some anti-Obama motivated Republicans in states like TX).

[SCNCmod]

That poll is trash, Cruz will win Texas vs O'Rourke, it will probably be something along the lines of 55-42. I think that O'Rourke will slightly over perform the average democrat in the state, and Cruz will substantially underperform the average republican in the state. Just because of how sucky Cruz is, and O'Rourke is pretty good, I think those margins will be a little thinner than usual, but at the end of the day, it is Texas.

I agree Cruz would beat O'Rourke.  But, I think Castro has a real shot of pulling the big upset, given its an off year, Cruz not very popular, Trump's low approval, and Castro's potential to motivate latinos, millennials, & women's march voters in a low turnout election (28.5% turnout in last off-year Texas election).