TX - Texas Lyceum: Castro +4, Cruz/O'Rourle Tied
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  TX - Texas Lyceum: Castro +4, Cruz/O'Rourle Tied
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Author Topic: TX - Texas Lyceum: Castro +4, Cruz/O'Rourle Tied  (Read 9486 times)
Heisenberg
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« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2017, 07:15:52 PM »

This is total garbage. Isn't this also the same polling firm that had Trump doing better than Rubio against Clinton, Clinton up 7 against Rubio, and Obama being viewed favorably by 50% of Texas voters?
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Horus
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« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2017, 07:19:10 PM »

Cruz will end up winning by 5-7 points.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2017, 07:43:29 PM »


Somebody's hot and bothered
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Person Man
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« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2017, 08:33:07 PM »

A 49/51 or even 51/49 vote is as likely as 38/61 at this point.
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Skye
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« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2017, 09:32:53 PM »

This is super junk.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #30 on: April 19, 2017, 10:05:44 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2017, 10:10:26 PM by SCNCmod »

There was another poll last year that also had Castro beating Cruz.  I do think Joaquin would have a chance... to eek out a win (much better than O'Rourke... & Castro has less liabilities).  

Castro would likely excite/ motivate many Latino's & Millennials to head to the polls in an off year election (and considering that last off-year election Texas had 28.5% turnout & Texas is now a Minority -Majority State, population wise ... that could make a big difference).

Couple that with motivated Women's march voters (esp considering the next Supreme court Nom will likely be in play & a win in Texas could theoretically shift control of Senate... allowing Dem's to stall a nom for a year, like Repub's did with Garland) + less enthusiasm among many R's for Cruz & Trump's low approval numbers ... Could equal a perfect storm, winning formula.  

Against anyone but Cruz, I would say no chance... But if Castro were to win, he would have 6 years for the Demographic shift towards Dems to come into play, before he had to run again.
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Shadows
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« Reply #31 on: April 19, 2017, 11:35:52 PM »

Lyin' Ted is gonna win & Castro is a boy. But I think Dems should target a margin of 5-6 odd !

Between a Democratic House in 2018 & Lyin' Ted losing, I will take a Lyin' Ted loss. I think it should be a massive priority for Dems to boot Lyin' Ted out by 2024 atleast !
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #32 on: April 20, 2017, 06:53:30 AM »

Lyin' Ted is gonna win & Castro is a boy. But I think Dems should target a margin of 5-6 odd !

Between a Democratic House in 2018 & Lyin' Ted losing, I will take a Lyin' Ted loss. I think it should be a massive priority for Dems to boot Lyin' Ted out by 2024 atleast !

Many "Boys" get elected to the Senate.  And I just don't see a high off year election turnout by Republicans to vote for Cruz... but a potential motivated turnout among Dems in TX for someone like Castro (this will likely be the key to the election, seeing as last mid-term only had 28.5% turnout... vs double that when Cruz was elected- which was also a year that had some anti-Obama motivated Republicans in states like TX).
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #33 on: April 20, 2017, 04:59:19 PM »

Let me just say that if Cruz is primaried, his chances of re election might go down just a tad bit.
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UWS
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« Reply #34 on: April 21, 2017, 09:36:28 AM »

Lose Cruz!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #35 on: April 26, 2017, 09:06:59 PM »

That poll is trash, Cruz will win Texas vs O'Rourke, it will probably be something along the lines of 55-42. I think that O'Rourke will slightly over perform the average democrat in the state, and Cruz will substantially underperform the average republican in the state. Just because of how sucky Cruz is, and O'Rourke is pretty good, I think those margins will be a little thinner than usual, but at the end of the day, it is Texas.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #36 on: April 28, 2017, 07:53:42 AM »

That poll is trash, Cruz will win Texas vs O'Rourke, it will probably be something along the lines of 55-42. I think that O'Rourke will slightly over perform the average democrat in the state, and Cruz will substantially underperform the average republican in the state. Just because of how sucky Cruz is, and O'Rourke is pretty good, I think those margins will be a little thinner than usual, but at the end of the day, it is Texas.

I agree Cruz would beat O'Rourke.  But, I think Castro has a real shot of pulling the big upset, given its an off year, Cruz not very popular, Trump's low approval, and Castro's potential to motivate latinos, millennials, & women's march voters in a low turnout election (28.5% turnout in last off-year Texas election).
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #37 on: April 28, 2017, 12:15:20 PM »

That poll is trash, Cruz will win Texas vs O'Rourke, it will probably be something along the lines of 55-42. I think that O'Rourke will slightly over perform the average democrat in the state, and Cruz will substantially underperform the average republican in the state. Just because of how sucky Cruz is, and O'Rourke is pretty good, I think those margins will be a little thinner than usual, but at the end of the day, it is Texas.

I agree Cruz would beat O'Rourke.  But, I think Castro has a real shot of pulling the big upset, given its an off year, Cruz not very popular, Trump's low approval, and Castro's potential to motivate latinos, millennials, & women's march voters in a low turnout election (28.5% turnout in last off-year Texas election).

Castro, hah! What a joke! I'm rofling right now! He is fully Hispanic, born and raised in Texas, and can barely speak Spanish, sad! He is also an ultra lib who won't work with the other side of the aisle. Neither he nor O'Rourke stand a chance, especially him, even against a windbag such as Ted Cruz. There is a reason he didn't get picked for VP on the 2016 ticket, instead someone who speaks Spanish was actually on the ticket...
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President Johnson
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« Reply #38 on: May 01, 2017, 03:30:10 AM »

Still likely R, as much as I would love to see Rafael going down.
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Skunk
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« Reply #39 on: May 01, 2017, 01:04:34 PM »

Safe R, don't get your hopes up.
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Overturn Dobbs
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« Reply #40 on: May 01, 2017, 01:06:44 PM »

Cruz will win, but will probably be the closest Senate race since 1988.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #41 on: May 05, 2017, 10:10:29 AM »

LOL!
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #42 on: May 18, 2017, 06:20:57 PM »

Great news
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #43 on: May 19, 2017, 04:06:29 PM »


For nobody, anyone who believes this poll even has the credibility of an infant doing algebra, needs to get their head checked.
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cxs018
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« Reply #44 on: May 19, 2017, 05:23:12 PM »

Tbf it's Da-Jon
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #45 on: May 19, 2017, 06:12:15 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2017, 06:27:30 PM by Da-Jon »


For nobody, anyone who believes this poll even has the credibility of an infant doing algebra, needs to get their head checked.

It's too early to say what the wave will be, its not Oct 2018, but its, only once has one house flipped without the other in 2010, and the last 3 midterms, Obama and Dubya has lost Congressional control to the other party. History may repeat itself, since the House of Rep, Dems may make up ground.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #46 on: May 19, 2017, 10:28:56 PM »


For nobody, anyone who believes this poll even has the credibility of an infant doing algebra, needs to get their head checked.

It's too early to say what the wave will be, its not Oct 2018, but its, only once has one house flipped without the other in 2010, and the last 3 midterms, Obama and Dubya has lost Congressional control to the other party. History may repeat itself, since the House of Rep, Dems may make up ground.

While I partially agree with you, and hope that you are right, no blue wave will be strong enough to wash over Texas. Only thing that could eventually do it is slow and steady demographic change.
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Badger
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« Reply #47 on: May 30, 2017, 09:01:25 PM »

Way to push those undecideds down to a mere 37%, Lyceum. Roll Eyes
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #48 on: July 03, 2017, 08:14:14 PM »

I will say that despite everyone saying that this poll is null because the pollster is bad, this is far from the first poll that shows Castro is up or tied with Cruz. Not that that means all that much this early on, but still.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #49 on: July 04, 2017, 06:22:47 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2017, 06:26:30 PM by Silent Cal »

"Ted Cruz is not popular!"
"His unpopularity will make this close!"

https://morningconsult.com/senate-rankings-april-2017/

He has a 57-31 Approval Rating according to Morning Consult.
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