Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Yank2133]

If the state GOP does decertify Moore and runs a write-in Strange campaign, does Strange win?

Nope, it would make a Moore win even more likely (if that's possible) by splitting the sane vote.

Come on, IS. You're treading perilously close to Obnoxious Twat territory.

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And now you're firmly in that territory. Goodbye, IS.

I don't know why you are acting like this is crazy. Donald Trump is President and this is Alabama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

McCain has called for Moore to step aside immediately, with no "if true" caveat.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Awful thought:

Moore steps down.
Sessions resigns as AG to run a write-in campaign for his old seat and wins.
Trump appoints a new AG who's not recused from the Russia probe.

Same result as with strange probably, maybe worse for gop

also whats the dem base level in Alabama?

I would say Jones has a floor of 37-38%, given that he'll win blacks overwhelmingly and likely do better with whites than national Dems do in the state.

[PoliticalShelter]

Considering how every single Alabama democrat is either black and/or a hardcore liberal (I.e. The groups in the Democratic Party that are the most partisan and hackish) the chances that a write-in campaign from a establishment republican will end up hurting Jones doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

[IceSpear]

If the state GOP does decertify Moore and runs a write-in Strange campaign, does Strange win?

Nope, it would make a Moore win even more likely (if that's possible) by splitting the sane vote.

Come on, IS. You're treading perilously close to Obnoxious Twat territory.

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And now you're firmly in that territory. Goodbye, IS.

I'm sorry you don't like the fact that a gigantic portion of the country will dismiss any unfavorable story about their candidate as fake news no matter how heinous it is (I don't either), but it's true. Look at the comments on Breitbart, tweets like the above, or comments on this very forum from krazen and Greedo. This is the modern day GOP.

[RogueBeaver]

AL Supreme Court could write a Torricelli decision or Ivey calls a special session to amend the law for such an option?

[swf541]

TOSSUP

Probably right, but I seriously doubt Strange would do very well as a write-in candidate, and the potential impact this story will have on the outcome of the race is probably exaggerated.

Strange running as a write in could likely lower moore's vote a good bit.  The other bit is it could depress his turnout

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Governor Ivey refused to publicly endorse him, that was in the past few days, she said she would vote for him though... I wonder if this would force her to actually call him to step aside and endorse Jones. Highly unlikely she would endorse Doug since she says Governors shouldn't endorse candidates, which I respect.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder what Sessions thinks about all of this.

[Cactus Jack]

I wonder what Sessions thinks about all of this.

Probably he's preoccupied with trying to avoid being carted off to the big house himself.

[IceSpear]

If there was an expulsion vote in the Senate, would anyone vote against it? Maybe Paul, Lee, Cruz, Inhofe?

[The Other Castro]

TOSSUP

Probably right, but I seriously doubt Strange would do very well as a write-in candidate, and the potential impact this story will have on the outcome of the race is probably exaggerated.

also whats the dem base level in Alabama?

In a special election with an unpopular Republican president in the WH, I'd say 42%.

Strange running as a write-in would be great (though unlikely), even if he only gets like less than 10%. Jones doesn't need to get 50%, just the most votes, and he could hypothetically win with 45%.

[swf541]

TOSSUP

Probably right, but I seriously doubt Strange would do very well as a write-in candidate, and the potential impact this story will have on the outcome of the race is probably exaggerated.

also whats the dem base level in Alabama?

In a special election with an unpopular Republican president in the WH, I'd say 42%.

Strange running as a write-in would be great (though unlikely), even if he only gets like less than 10%. Jones doesn't need to get 50%, just the most votes, and he could hypothetically win with 45%.

If strange could get 15% or so even better

The best thing for the national gop publicity wise is to pull the endorsement/ nomination.  If he wins its massive ammo for dems in 2018

[Skye]

A write-in campaign of another republican here would mean a Democratic victory here if they votes aren't split in a lopsided manner. The Alabama electorate is just too inelastic.

[Gass3268]

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[MT Treasurer]

TOSSUP

Probably right, but I seriously doubt Strange would do very well as a write-in candidate, and the potential impact this story will have on the outcome of the race is probably exaggerated.

also whats the dem base level in Alabama?

In a special election with an unpopular Republican president in the WH, I'd say 42%.

Strange running as a write-in would be great (though unlikely), even if he only gets like less than 10%. Jones doesn't need to get 50%, just the most votes, and he could hypothetically win with 45%.

Yeah I agree, though this might also nationalize the race to a certain extent. A Tossup rating is probably warranted, though I doubt that Strange would get more than 5%-7%.

[Gass3268]

When do Democrats get to start attacking Republicans for having vile Alabama values?

[IceSpear]

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But I thought I was an obnoxious twat?

It's only been an hour and the rationalizing has ALREADY begun!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It's very unlikely that Moore will be Alabama's next Senator now. Either he loses to Jones, or he wins and gets expelled from the Senate.

[swf541]

When do Democrats get to start attacking Republicans for having vile Alabama values?

Well the way things are heading maybe in a month.....

[Roronoa D. Law]

A write-in campaign of another republican here would mean a Democratic victory here if they votes aren't split in a lopsided manner. The Alabama electorate is just too inelastic.

Alabama Republican are also very partisan this is different from Louisiana in 2015.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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Lmfao he thinks he's making things better for Roy?

[VPH]

A write-in campaign of another republican here would mean a Democratic victory here if they votes aren't split in a lopsided manner. The Alabama electorate is just too inelastic.

Alabama Republican are also very partisan this is different from Louisiana in 2015.

Are they really that much more partisan than Louisiana Republicans?

[Roronoa D. Law]

A write-in campaign of another republican here would mean a Democratic victory here if they votes aren't split in a lopsided manner. The Alabama electorate is just too inelastic.

Alabama Republican are also very partisan this is different from Louisiana in 2015.

Are they really that much more partisan than Louisiana Republicans?

Louisiana has a recent history of electing Democrats before Edwards Alabama does not.

[The Other Castro]

So, to clear up some things:

-Moore cannot be replaced on the ballot
-If Moore withdraws, votes for him will not count (2nd place winner will win)
-Strange can run as a write-in if he wants to (sore loser laws don't apply to write-ins)
-AL courts could potentially change these requirements, allows for replacements, etc.

http://excessofdemocracy.com/blog/2017/11/sorting-out-the-alabama-senate-election-possibilities-in-light-of-roy-moore