UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Devout Centrist]

I have averaged out all of the polls taken over the last week, and I am seeing that the potential gains that the conservatives had are all but gone, except in Scotland, which is where I think most of the action will be next Wednesday, although there will be quite a few in England that will be interesting.

Could get worse for the Tories if the polls narrow. Would be absolutely hilarious to see them lose seats.

[parochial boy]

Guardian/ICM

Conservatives - 45% (-2%)
Labour - 33% (NC)
Lib Dems - 8% (-1%)
UKIP - 5% (+1%)
Greens - 3% (+1%)

Doesn't seem like Manchester has given the Tories the kind of boost we might have expected

[DavidB.]

Big differences between pollsters. 45-33 vs. 42-38... wonder which one it's going to look like.

[DL]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

[Tintrlvr]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

[vileplume]

Guardian/ICM

Conservatives - 45% (-2%)
Labour - 33% (NC)
Lib Dems - 8% (-1%)
UKIP - 5% (+1%)
Greens - 3% (+1%)

Doesn't seem like Manchester has given the Tories the kind of boost we might have expected

ICM generational gap in a chart

I can't see the Tories doing as badly as 15% with the 18-25 group (nor will Labour do as well as 73%). As a bit of context YouGov estimates that the Tories got 32% of the 18-29 vote in 2015. Even allowing for Brexit, seen as their vote share is up nationally it is difficult to see their vote share amongst the 18-25 group going below ~25%.

[_]

Guardian/ICM

Conservatives - 45% (-2%)
Labour - 33% (NC)
Lib Dems - 8% (-1%)
UKIP - 5% (+1%)
Greens - 3% (+1%)

Doesn't seem like Manchester has given the Tories the kind of boost we might have expected

ICM generational gap in a chart

I can't see the Tories doing as badly as 15% with the 18-25 group (nor will Labour do as well as 73%). As a bit of context YouGov estimates that the Tories got 32% of the 18-29 vote in 2015. Even allowing for Brexit, seen as their vote share is up nationally it is difficult to see their vote share amongst the 18-25 group going below ~25%.

I'm willing to bet they do a bit worse in the 65+ Crowd based on the Dementia tax, even though they reversed on it the voters will still remember.

[Tintrlvr]

Guardian/ICM

Conservatives - 45% (-2%)
Labour - 33% (NC)
Lib Dems - 8% (-1%)
UKIP - 5% (+1%)
Greens - 3% (+1%)

Doesn't seem like Manchester has given the Tories the kind of boost we might have expected

ICM generational gap in a chart

I can't see the Tories doing as badly as 15% with the 18-25 group (nor will Labour do as well as 73%). As a bit of context YouGov estimates that the Tories got 32% of the 18-29 vote in 2015. Even allowing for Brexit, seen as their vote share is up nationally it is difficult to see their vote share amongst the 18-25 group going below ~25%.

I'm willing to bet they do a bit worse in the 65+ Crowd based on the Dementia tax, even though they reversed on it the voters will still remember.

Not if they have dementia.

(Sorry)

[Blair]

Big differences between pollsters. 45-33 vs. 42-38... wonder which one it's going to look like.

The 42%-38% poll had 18-24 turnout at 82%... which is higher than the Indyref and frankly is not going to happen. The fact that Labour are still 6% with 82% turnout in our best demographic shows how far behind we are

[Shadows]

Bernie Sanders is touring the UK - Don't see him endorsing Corbyn, but will be bash Tory policies ?

Senator Bernie Sanders will speak at venues across the UK during a visit in support of his book, Our Revolution & will kick things off at Brighton Festival on 1 June, before heading on to Cambridge Union, Oxford Sheldonian, Brixton Academy, Bristol Festival of Ideas and Hay Festival in Powys, Wales. His brother Larry, the Green Party candidate for Oxford East in the General Election, said it "will be lovely" to see him. "All the venues are very big and very sold-out"

Jeremy Corbyn is hoping for an endorsement. Asked whether he thinks he will get one, he said: “I can’t say. I hope he will. I think he probably will, actually. But we mustn’t predict these things.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/news/bernie-sanders-uk-tour-live-speech-oxford-cambridge-bristol-a7728221.html

[DL]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

[Shadows]

Ore Oduba branded 'nasty' to Jeremy Corbyn in The One Show interview

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/showbiz/618564/jeremy-corbyn-the-one-show-ore-oduba-nasty


There is “something magic” about growing your own peas, potatoes and the like, he says, before presenting Alex and Ore with a pot of homemade jam. Behind a picture of a Thomas Crapper cover is an image of the Labour leader with an Arsenal scarf. He sometimes referees under-10s matches and is asked whether they, or the parliamentary Labour party, are easier to control. No prizes for guessing his answer is the former.

Corbyn says his parents were liberal thinkers who brought up their children to think for themselves. “I try to carry on in that tradition.” We learn that he was a Sunday paper boy in rural Shropshire and that his grandfather was a solicitor who became known as the “poor man’s lawyer” after moving to Ealing in west London. Corbyn says he never set out in life to be prime minister but that he is “giving everything he can” to win this election. Realising he wasn’t going to get into university with those grades, he applied to VSO and went for a “weird interview” in which he was asked how he felt about chickens being slaughtered. Corbyn responded that he was a vegetarian but that if others wanted to eat meat that was fine by him.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/30/general-election-2017-may-corbyn-paxman-snp-manifesto-politics-live

[TheSaint250]

A quick question: how would one place Lib Dems on the ideological scale? I assume they are between Blair's Labour and Corbyn's Labour, but not entirely sure.

[DavidB.]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

[EnglishPete]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

British Jews used to vote Labour by similar margins. Labour, especially under Corbyn but even before then the 'anti-Zionist' 'boycott Israel' nutjobs have been getting more and more closing linked with the left and the Labour party.

I suspect that in the Democratic Party the breaks have been put on much more against this tendency because the Jewish vote is proportionately much higher and the Muslim vote proportionately much lower than in the UK. I suspect that once this tendency reaches a certain critical mass within the Democrats you'll see a similar migration of Jewish votes in the US.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

and most importantly us-democrats are not corbyn labourites.

[TheSaint250]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

and most importantly us-democrats are not corbyn labourites.

where would one put corbyn on an americanized scale? bernie sanders, hillary clinton, or something in between?

[DavidB.]

British Jews used to vote Labour by similar margins. Labour, especially under Corbyn but even before then the 'anti-Zionist' 'boycott Israel' nutjobs have been getting more and more closing linked with the left and the Labour party.

I suspect that in the Democratic Party the breaks have been put on much more against this tendency because the Jewish vote is proportionately much higher and the Muslim vote proportionately much lower than in the UK. I suspect that once this tendency reaches a certain critical mass within the Democrats you'll see a similar migration of Jewish votes in the US.

Don't underestimate the vast cultural and political difference between British Jews and American Jews. This is the most important factor. Everything else is less important. But the difference between the Tories and the Republicans matters a great deal too.

[thumb21]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

and most importantly us-democrats are not corbyn labourites.

where would one put corbyn on an americanized scale? bernie sanders, hillary clinton, or something in between?

a reasonable distance to the left of bernie sanders

[EnglishPete]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

and most importantly us-democrats are not corbyn labourites.

where would one put corbyn on an americanized scale? bernie sanders, hillary clinton, or something in between?

To the left of Bernie Sanders. He has spent much of his time over the last 40 or more years attending and speaking at street protests and many of his closest associates are involved with running hard left (often communist led) street protest organisations like the 'Stop the war Coalition". I would put him in the same place as a long time professional street protest organisation organiser, maybe in NYC or maybe in Portland perhaps.

[TheSaint250]

ok, thanks guys

[ApatheticAustrian]

where would one put corbyn on an americanized scale? bernie sanders, hillary clinton, or something in between?

to the left of bernie re: domestic policy AND foreign policy, closer to the left of the 70ies.

tulsi gabbard meets de blasio meets alan grayson.

[parochial boy]

Worth pointing out that Labour had lost the Jewish vote well before Corbyn became Labour - they went an estimated 70%-22% in favour of the Tories back in 2015

And this is despite the fact that Ed Milliband could have been considered Jewish - although the fact that he was generally not probably explains at least part of the reason why self-identified Jews in the UK tend to vote well to the right of American Jews.

Also, does every single post in this thread need to be made in reference to the American equivalent? Different countries are, you know, different.

[vileplume]

Worth pointing out that Labour had lost the Jewish vote well before Corbyn became Labour - they went an estimated 70%-22% in favour of the Tories back in 2015

And this is despite the fact that Ed Milliband could have been considered Jewish - although the fact that he was generally not probably explains at least part of the reason why self-identified Jews in the UK tend to vote well to the right of American Jews.

Also, does every single post in this thread need to be made in reference to the American equivalent? Different countries are, you know, different.

It is true that the Jewish vote was already strongly Tory but Corbyn is pushing it towards being a monolithic Conservative voting block. Plus the anti-Semitism scandals since Corbyn became leader will have made the damage much harder to reverse.

I haven't seen any polls for this election but the Hindu vote (and possibly the Sikh vote too) up to now seems to be trending Tory too which could spell trouble for Labour both for the purposes of this election and in the long term in places like Harrow. The Muslim vote and the black vote remain strongly Labour (though nothing on the level that they are in the U.S) though I imagine this is at least partly due to these voters being highly concentrated in deprived, inner city constituencies where the Tories do horribly with everyone anyway regardless of the ethnicity/religion.

[parochial boy]

It is true that the Jewish vote was already strongly Tory but Corbyn is pushing it towards being a monolithic Conservative voting block. Plus the anti-Semitism scandals since Corbyn became leader will have made the damage much harder to reverse.

I haven't seen any polls for this election but the Hindu vote (and possibly the Sikh vote too) up to now seems to be trending Tory too which could spell trouble for Labour both for the purposes of this election and in the long term in places like Harrow. The Muslim vote and the black vote remain strongly Labour (though nothing on the level that they are in the U.S) though I imagine this is at least partly due to these voters being highly concentrated in deprived, inner city constituencies where the Tories do horribly with everyone anyway regardless of the ethnicity/religion.

Yes, I believe the trend among Hindu voters came up very clearly at the mayoral election last year. Although, having said that, I feel that the Hindu (or even British Indian) vote is becoming quite class bound, as places like Feltham and Heston or Ealing Southall, which have large Hindu (although admittedly larger Sikh) populations have not been trending Tory at all.

I have also seen it proposed that British Asians whose families immigrated from Kenya or Uganda tend to be a much stronger Conservative constituency than those who came from the subcontinent, which would explain the trend in Harrow in particular.