UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[parochial boy]

Lol, keep digging Jeremy

[Hnv1]

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

I am sure they do, which is why they want to strengthen & continue the disastrous Reagan-Thatcher economy (But you know it's on borrowed time with the massive polarization of young people coming into the voting bloc & old people dying, even if some of these young people turn conservative, it's only a matter of few years !

Very selective data picking. I suggest you go read about the three days work week, the social decay of most British cities (captured beautifully in The Special's Ghost Town), the general feeling that things were falling apart, social unrest as unemployed youth turned football terraces into battlefields, NF running amok, and etc.

Situation was so bad that in one point some thought of overthrowing the government and placing Lord Mountbatten at the top

[parochial boy]

Very selective data picking. I suggest you go read about the three days work week, the social decay of most British cities (captured beautifully in The Special's Ghost Town), the general feeling that things were falling apart, social unrest as unemployed youth turned football terraces into battlefields, NF running amok, and etc.

Situation was so bad that in one point some thought of overthrowing the government and placing Lord Mountbatten at the top

True, but why would any of those things be a reason to vote Tory? It's not like she reversed de-industrialisation, and her legacy was the continued decline and chronic unemployment/insecurity that may parts of the country still endure to this day.

Ghost Town was released under Thatcher by the way

I hate to say it, but the reason older people vote Tory is because they wish it was still the 1950s and Britain still had an empire.

Never underestimate the sheer weight of Little Englanderism among the inhabitants of moderately prosperous towns like Wellingborough.

[Phony Moderate]

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

Or, on a more localized level, the 1980s (Militant Tendency et al)

Well Merseyside is probably of the few places where Labour might win the over 60 vote...

[jaichind]

Guardian/ICM Poll


CON             48 (-1)
LAB              28 (+1)
LIB               10 (+1)
UKIP               6 (nc)

[Hnv1]

Very selective data picking. I suggest you go read about the three days work week, the social decay of most British cities (captured beautifully in The Special's Ghost Town), the general feeling that things were falling apart, social unrest as unemployed youth turned football terraces into battlefields, NF running amok, and etc.

Situation was so bad that in one point some thought of overthrowing the government and placing Lord Mountbatten at the top

True, but why would any of those things be a reason to vote Tory? It's not like she reversed de-industrialisation, and her legacy was the continued decline and chronic unemployment/insecurity that may parts of the country still endure to this day.

Ghost Town was released under Thatcher by the way

I hate to say it, but the reason older people vote Tory is because they wish it was still the 1950s and Britain still had an empire.

Never underestimate the sheer weight of Little Englanderism among the inhabitants of moderately prosperous towns like Wellingborough.
[/quote]
It was not put as a reason to vote Tory but rather as to explain why the 70's were terrible

[EnglishPete]

"Communism still represents, in my view, a society worth working towards". Andrew Murray, 11 December, 2015.


I'm sill baffled, why the hell would Corbyn appoint this man out of all people ....

I think you've answered your own question there.

[EnglishPete]

Some tweets from yesterday from former Labour MP Dennis McShane

Denis MacShane‏ @DenisMacShane  23h23 hours ago
More
Denis MacShane Retweeted Tom Harris
I returned to Lab S London seat which I thought OK last weekend to face non-stop JC hostility. Anger, despair, sense of betrayal.


Denis MacShane‏ @DenisMacShane  23h23 hours ago
More
Denis MacShane Retweeted Jennifer  👑
And what Lab MPs friends tell me in north. Perhaps you, they, me are all wrong though and it will be a big Lab winDenis MacShane added,
Jennifer  👑 @Chic_Happens_
Certainly matches what I'm hearing here (Sussex) https://twitter.com/denismacshane/status/863748559316889600 …

Denis MacShane Retweeted
 (((Fightingb4ck)))‏ @fightingb4ck  24h24 hours ago
More
Replying to @DenisMacShane @MarkHemi82
wait til you canvass in North London ....

This is just anecdotal of course but it matches the great majority of similar anecdotal reports of Labour people seen on social media and in other media.

[Gustaf]

Very selective data picking. I suggest you go read about the three days work week, the social decay of most British cities (captured beautifully in The Special's Ghost Town), the general feeling that things were falling apart, social unrest as unemployed youth turned football terraces into battlefields, NF running amok, and etc.

Situation was so bad that in one point some thought of overthrowing the government and placing Lord Mountbatten at the top

True, but why would any of those things be a reason to vote Tory? It's not like she reversed de-industrialisation, and her legacy was the continued decline and chronic unemployment/insecurity that may parts of the country still endure to this day.

Ghost Town was released under Thatcher by the way

I hate to say it, but the reason older people vote Tory is because they wish it was still the 1950s and Britain still had an empire.

Never underestimate the sheer weight of Little Englanderism among the inhabitants of moderately prosperous towns like Wellingborough.

I thought Little Englanders were those who did NOT want an empire?

[parochial boy]

Very selective data picking. I suggest you go read about the three days work week, the social decay of most British cities (captured beautifully in The Special's Ghost Town), the general feeling that things were falling apart, social unrest as unemployed youth turned football terraces into battlefields, NF running amok, and etc.

Situation was so bad that in one point some thought of overthrowing the government and placing Lord Mountbatten at the top

True, but why would any of those things be a reason to vote Tory? It's not like she reversed de-industrialisation, and her legacy was the continued decline and chronic unemployment/insecurity that may parts of the country still endure to this day.

Ghost Town was released under Thatcher by the way

I hate to say it, but the reason older people vote Tory is because they wish it was still the 1950s and Britain still had an empire.

Never underestimate the sheer weight of Little Englanderism among the inhabitants of moderately prosperous towns like Wellingborough.

I thought Little Englanders were those who did NOT want an empire?

It's original meaning... Nowadays it's just a generalised term for small minded types living just about everywhere that isn't one of the boroughs of Inner London.
Like this, for example

[Clyde1998]

Everyone's favorite analysts, The Political Compass, have released their hot UK takes.

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I'm guessing "DLP" is supposed to be the SDLP; or are they tracking a party that I've never heard of before?

[Tintrlvr]

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

Bath; if they can't win that they ought to give up and go home.  There are a handful of other possible re-gains from the Tories, and they might have a chance of taking Cambridge back from Labour.  Then there should be a chance in some Scottish seats: East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife.  Beyond those it's hard to be optimistic for them on current polls.

The other trouble for them on these polls is that their 2015 seats don't all look that safe.  Southport, in particular, looks vulnerable as John Pugh is standing down.  I'm sceptical about their chances of losing my own backyard but if the tactical Tories from 2015 desert them they'll need to find some new votes from somewhere...

Southport seems like a likely loss, I agree, but the other LD 2015 seats seem okay. I see Carshalton mentioned sometimes, but that seems to be assuming the national swing occurs in SW London, which is a... debatable... statement.

Overall prediction on the LDs:

GAIN Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Bath from Con
GAIN Cambridge from Lab
GAIN North East Fife from SNP

HOLD/GAIN Richmond Park [from Con]

LOSE Southport to Con

Net +4/5, to 13 seats.

I am less optimistic on Edinburgh West and East Dunbartonshire at this point in the campaign (think there will be tactical unwind to the Tories in both as they surge in Scotland that will prevent the LDs from making gains), and I'd throw out Birmingham Yardley as a possible gain from Labour as well. I'm not sure what they did with all of the activists who were swarming Manchester Gorton before the election call, but, if those people were mostly redirected to Manchester Withington, I could see the LDs potentially gaining that from Labour also but don't think it's likely.

Edit: Forgot about Bermondsey and Old Southwark. I think that could be an LD gain from Labour also, although Labour is holding up reasonably well in London.

[Phony Moderate]

Interestingly, a lot of normal people (i.e. those who are, at best, mildly interested in politics) on my social media feeds are saying that they won't vote Labour because of the 'mess that Blair and Brown made of the country'. Not much about Jeremy's extremism or whatever.

[Devout Centrist]

Everyone's favorite analysts, The Political Compass, have released their hot UK takes.

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"Losing is a good thing!"

[Phony Moderate]

Everyone's favorite analysts, The Political Compass, have released their hot UK takes.

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"Losing is a good thing!"

Well, political parties aren't football teams in all of our minds tbf.

[LabourJersey]

One question for the British posters: I keep seeing forecasts saying the SNP is going to lose anywhere from 5-15 seats. Do you think that's accurate, and who would gain these seats? My grasp at Scottish politics isn't great and less so given all the new shifts we're seeing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sill baffled, why the hell would Corbyn appoint this man out of all people ....

Because he's Chief of Staff to Len McCluskey?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And if we're just posting embarrassing and 'embarrassing' stories about politicians like RSS feeds here's one for balance: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/election-2017-39925019/woman-accosts-may-over-carer-support

[Tintrlvr]

One question for the British posters: I keep seeing forecasts saying the SNP is going to lose anywhere from 5-15 seats. Do you think that's accurate, and who would gain these seats? My grasp at Scottish politics isn't great and less so given all the new shifts we're seeing.

The Conservatives. Maybe 1-3 seats to the LDs also but most losses would be to the Tories. Labour will be relatively lucky to retain their single current Scottish seat (but looks better for them now than a few weeks ago).

[IceAgeComing]

One question for the British posters: I keep seeing forecasts saying the SNP is going to lose anywhere from 5-15 seats. Do you think that's accurate, and who would gain these seats? My grasp at Scottish politics isn't great and less so given all the new shifts we're seeing.

A lot of those forecasts are based on a uniform national (UK-wide in this context) swing; which has a habit of exaggerating things when you're talking about a Scotland-only party that got 5% of the UK vote in the last election.

The SNP will lose a few, Berwickshire will definately go as will West Aberdeenshire and Dumfries and Galloway - past that it gets complicated since we're talking about seats with very big SNP majorities and the Tories well behind (sometimes in third place) so it'd depend on the distribution of that vote - if it was more skewed to the old Tory North East then they could gain lots; but lots of those seats have big SNP names in them which might limit the potential Tory vote.  East Renfrewshire might go; but its a different seat to the old Tory safe seat which might help the SNP.

The Libs have three targets: Edinburgh West (won in the "Edinburgh Western" Holyrood seat and most of the wards in the council elections, 2015 SNP MP standing down over a corruption scandal); North East Fife (Liberals again did well in the local elections here and gained the Holyrood version of the seat; before the last election they'd held it since 1987) and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson is standing again and she performed the best out of any Lib Dem incumbent MP in 2015 - her vote only well by 2%; she lost because of a 30% increase in the SNP vote and you can't really ever survive that sort of vote share rise - they also did well in the locals here).  Past that they have nothing - they gained no votes last year, and although local elections in the Highlands are dominated by Independents the partisan races that did exist had the SNP ahead everywhere bar Caithness; which was a split between all three unionist parties and I doubt that will help anyone.  They ought to do better than a uniform swing would demonstrate because of that - they're focusing on these three seats and have a good chance of picking up tactical anti-SNP votes.

Labour would be doing good to hold Edinburgh South (local polling, as much as it is worth, have them ten points ahead there); the best chance at any kind of gain would be East Lothian but I doubt that it will happen this year.

[henster]

The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.

[Silent Hunter]

Operative word being 'may'.

[kyc0705]

Everyone's favorite analysts, The Political Compass, have released their hot UK takes.

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The only thing that this Political Compass did is remind me that the Labour Party exists.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

sage brah

[EnglishPete]

The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.

I don't think it will help them avoid a larger blowout. I suspect that the Tories are heading for their best election result since 1931 and Labour is heading for a real meltdown. I think the polls are overstating the Labour vote again.