Arizona and Colorado in 1996

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why did Arizona goes dem but not Colorado

[Chinggis]

Why did Arizona goes dem but not Colorado

My extensive research in the last 30 seconds suggests that the Phoenix metropolitan area swung and trended Democratic in a way that the Denver suburbs did not. Colorado just wasn't there yet.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Colorado went dem in 92

[Arbitrage1980]

Colorado went dem in 92

Two words: Ross Perot

Perot is also why Clinton won Montana. The mountain states have a libertarian bent, hence why along with New England it was Perot's strongest region.

Clinton lost FL and AZ by less than 2% in 1992 but won them both in 1996. My guess is that the fiscal conservative types in the suburbs in those states were skeptical of Clinton in 92, but his performance won them over in 96.

[MT Treasurer]

Clinton winning Arizona can be explained by a combination of five factors:
1. Dole's weaknesses among Hispanic voters.
2. Dole underperforming badly among seniors and retirees, in part because of the social security issue.
3. Perot: Clinton won the state by 2, and Perot got 8%.
4. Clinton targeting the state like crazy: He wanted to be the first Democrat to win AZ since Truman in 1948. He also targeted Republican states like Texas, Virginia, South Dakota, but he lost those in the end.
5. Republicans running anti-Dole ads in the Republican primary in AZ, which hurt his favorability numbers there. Remember, Forbes won AZ - it was one of the few states Dole lost.

Colorado is a more interesting case, but the state has an anti-incumbency bias built into it and Dole was a very good fit for it, certainly better than Bush. I guess a combination of Perot voters coming home for Dole + Dole doing very well in Eastern CO and El Paso.