2016=1928? (user search)
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  2016=1928? (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016=1928?  (Read 3500 times)
Virginiá
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« on: April 16, 2017, 01:28:49 PM »

Does that mean Trump is the next Hoover? Hard to say. Anyone see other parallels or is this stretching?

I can't comment much on the specifics you listed above, but if you mean the "next Hoover" as in the next Republican to bring about an era of Democratic control, I'd have to say no - not in the way that happened with Hoover/FDR. The Great Depression wasn't exactly something history could have predicted in the manner that it occurred. The realigning effect that event had is practically unparalleled, and there is no guarantee anything close to that would happen under Trump.

Otherwise you did point out some decent similarities as far as I can tell. Though, I might also add that he shares some other similarities with other presidents as well (Carter). It really depends on how you want to look at it.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2017, 05:47:03 PM »

In fact, the author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority" (from the early 2000s) has now recanted and said that we are entering a Republican era.

No, John Judis didn't quite say that. Since the NJ article is paywalled, here is something from Trende on it:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/02/11/what_to_make_of_john_judis_republican_advantage_125558.html

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First, I think Judis is right - for now. Part of the idea of a realignment finally bearing fruit in elections is that districts that might look out of reach or leaning away from Democrats become competitive or flip entirely. Without exit polls by district, it's hard to say, but once Millennials reach critical mass, Republicans will lose their grip on many areas.

Second, the last realignment was to Republicans, and so we are already in a Republican era. The reason people keep predicting a shift to Democrats is not because of hackery but because that is what history & the data currently shows. Personally I think it's pretty hackish for a Republican, in the face of all of this info, to actually suggest they are going to have a hold on power for another few decades. There is very little to actually back that idea up, and the "we control so much at state/Congressional level blah blah" doesn't matter one bit. Parties have rapidly lost massive amounts of seats within the span of one or two elections, such as 1932, 1946, 1994 and 2010.

Third, it's not like all of us are collaborating on the same ideas. I have my own opinions on what is going to happen, and it certainly wasn't based on something happening before 2010, even if 2008 at times did seem interesting in that regard. My opinion has been for a while now that once Millennials make up almost half of eligible voters, their political preferences will begin to dominate, and their voting patterns for years now have suggested big trouble for Republicans when that happens.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2017, 11:41:06 PM »

In the suburbs your analysis might hold true for now but in rural areas I do think Republicans can still win there in the longer short term despite the Millennials growing influence in electoral politics.

The top trending Dem Congressional Districts were in CA, FL, AZ, TX, VA(NOVA) and GA in 2016.

Considering how deep GOP win margins run now in some of these areas, you're probably right. However, a few things:

1. Continuing urbanization of America will further erode rural political power, no?
2. A reduction in the win margins of Republicans in some rural areas due to ascendant Millennials means it is still easier for Democrats to win in these areas than it is now. Even more so if Republican Millennials are more willing to split their tickets, which isn't impossible to think if the GOP runs candidates not palatable to them, though that is mainly a short-term issue if one at all.
3. Millennial Republicans are still more moderate than their older counterparts, so eventually they should help moderate the party overall and thus still benefits Democrats.


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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2017, 11:18:09 PM »

1.) Continuing urbanization of America will further erode rural political power- Um no not exactly. In 2016 I think overall migration between suburban and urban counties kind of evened out I think. I think overall migration to urban counties was higher from 2010/2011-2015 than in suburban counties. I could always be wrong though on that. Still the suburbs is where the Dem gained ground in 2016 and that is a caution to Republicans for the future. I mean for example Republicans aren't even competitive in Bergen County, NJ at the Presidential Level which is in the NYC Metropolitan Area that has to start to change in my opinion.

Yes, that's true. I actually posted an article on it last month: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261282.0

What I meant was that people are continuing to move to more populated areas, whether they be urban cores, the suburbs around them or even a little further out. The area(s) consistently losing out still are rural areas:

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Not to say all types of 'burbs are good for Democrats - definitely not, but areas where Democrats are really getting blown out are not doing so well in terms of population growth.
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