Why does every long-term Atlas prediction involve a early-to-mid-21st Century Democratic realignment? Before Trump won, the consensus was that it started in 2008, and now they have just shifted the goalposts to 2020/2024. Partisan realignments are becoming more and more rare, and there is no evidence that we are about to embark in a long-term Democratic era. In fact, the author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority" (from the early 2000s) has now recanted and said that we are entering a Republican era.
He never said that. He said that we are entering a period where the Republicans may have a temporary advantage but we are not entering a Republican era. He was quite specific and clear on that.
As for the 21st century D predictions, do the math. Figure out that the GOP is going to need to keep winning 3-4% more whites each subsequent election to hold their 51%. Why would minorities swing to the Republicans, when the current GOP era has been geared towards motivating
white voters to turn out?
