ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[YE]

When has Tester voted like a Blue Dog? He basically votes like a Western rural Democrat. Moderate but more populist than corporate. It’s not like MT has a fiscally conservative swing vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When has Tester voted like a Blue Dog? He basically votes like a Western rural Democrat. Moderate but more populist than corporate. It’s not like MT has a fiscally conservative swing vote.

Moderates in the Billings suburbs.

[YE]

When has Tester voted like a Blue Dog? He basically votes like a Western rural Democrat. Moderate but more populist than corporate. It’s not like MT has a fiscally conservative swing vote.

Moderates in the Billings suburbs.

Who voted for a single payer supporter in 2004 and 2008 for governor.

Edit: Also Billings has suburbs? Lol

[2016]

She is coming close to DOA.

Oh please

Heitkamp would need about 1/3 of the Voters who voted for Trump & Cramer in 2016 crossing over and voting for her in November in a big Red State. North Dakota has been changing. This isn't the same State that elected Democrats like Byron Dorgan & Kent Conrad numerous times.

[Cactus Jack]

She is coming close to DOA.

This just in: Bagel still knows absolutely nothing or whatsoever about politics. More at 11.

[Brittain33]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

[Free Bird]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

My thoughts pretty much. He got more votes than Heitkamp did in 2012, after all.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am bearish on Tester now, I think he stands at lean R, I put it at Lean D till last may and then Assaultforte won and Tester swung hard left, I think he loses by 3-4 pts.

He could lose, but I’d definitely not rate it Lean R. Lean D seems more reasonable, though you could also make a case for Tilt D or Tossup. I think you’re really underestimating how Democratic-friendly those states can be down-ballot. To many voters, personality and candidate quality matter a lot more than party affiliation.

There has been no polling for a Cramer vs. Heitkamp matchup, btw.

Tester was voting like a solid blue dog, and I was still thinking of a tossup to tilt D rating even after Assaultforte, but then he swung very left on voting after the obamacare repeal block during the summer.

Holy sh!t you are so dumb. So are you actually arguing that him being the only Democrat in the Senate to vote for Trumpcare in the summer and for the tax "reform" bill would have benefitted him somehow from goodwill from R voters? LOL. He'd be getting primaried instead.

And that primary challenge would flop miserably.

[_]

Tilt D, closer to Lean than tossup imo, but Cramer can easily EXPLODE

[Former Kentuckian]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

My thoughts pretty much. He got more votes than Heitkamp did in 2012, after all.

12,000 more votes, what a monster. The Cramer vs Heitkamp 2012 comparisons hold no water anyway because those were such different elections with completely different circumstances.

[The Other Castro]

The original calculus for this was factoring in a Heitkamp vs Cramer matchup, where the feeling seemed to be yeah this could be pretty competitive but Heitkamp is a solid campaigner. Then, Cramer said some dumb stuff and national Republicans actively sought a different candidate, and Cramer announced he wasn’t running. Cramer getting back in means we’re back in that previous setting, but with the knowledge that Republicans were worried enough about him to seek a different candidate. Let’s not pretend Cramer is this formidable foe just because he’s the best Republicans could get for the seat.

[KingSweden]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

[Free Bird]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

My thoughts pretty much. He got more votes than Heitkamp did in 2012, after all.

12,000 more votes, what a monster. The Cramer vs Heitkamp 2012 comparisons hold no water anyway because those were such different elections with completely different circumstances.

And Heitkamp only won by 4000 against an absurdly damaged opponent in a year with Barack Obama on the ballot and is now running in a state that is directly feeling the benefits of a bill that Heitkamp voted against.

[henster]

Cramer has a voting record voted for the Ryan budget to gut SS/Medicare, AHCA etc. plus the foot in mouth syndrome he seems to have.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can’t wait for Cramer to say things were better when we had slavery or something

[Hindsight was 2020]

Cramer has a voting record voted for the Ryan budget to gut SS/Medicare, AHCA etc. plus the foot in mouth syndrome he seems to have.

^This^ seriously Cramer didn't scare anyone the first time we thought he'd be Hedi's opponent I don't see why just because Campbell was worse that this is now some big toss up

[krazen1211]

Thousands of workers have flooded into North Dakota since 2012 to drill oil. Guess how they are voting? I suspect it is for the GOP.

[McGovernForPrez]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

My thoughts pretty much. He got more votes than Heitkamp did in 2012, after all.

12,000 more votes, what a monster. The Cramer vs Heitkamp 2012 comparisons hold no water anyway because those were such different elections with completely different circumstances.

And Heitkamp only won by 4000 against an absurdly damaged opponent in a year with Barack Obama on the ballot and is now running in a state that is directly feeling the benefits of a bill that Heitkamp voted against.

I don't think Obama being on the ballot helped Heitkamp whatsoever. In fact it probably made her election even more close than it should've been.

[LimoLiberal]

FWIW, this dude who does polling as DFM research, who correctly called the 2012 senate election, thinks Heitkamp is in a good position. He cites some internal polling that apparently he has done.

https://twitter.com/DFMresearch/status/964653817659908097

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https://twitter.com/DFMresearch/status/964656392668876801

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[Anna Komnene]

This thread is so salty, it's like swimming through the dead sea.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

70%.

[Hoosier_Nick]

10%-20%. I’m not buying that Heitkamp is as vulnerable as people are making her out to be, and my bold™ prediction is that she’ll stun the pundits and Atlas and do better than Nelson, Manchin and even Tester.

Agreed. As I've said once before on the forum, I have lots of family in North Dakota and know others as well. All whom I've talked to about politics really like Heidi Heitkamp, even the strong Republicans. These are people from Minot, Valley City and Fargo. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but I feel like people are underestimating a politicians' ability to connect with a small state as much as Heitkamp has with North Dakotans. I'd put it at around a 15% chance the GOP takes this, with a larger chance of this becoming noncompetitive fast.

[junior chįmp]

The only way Heidi was going to lose was if Hillary won in 2016

[Xing]

30-40%. Cramer's not the best candidate, and Republicans are already blowing this race big time. They're honestly having much more trouble in this race than they should.

[Pandaguineapig]

45-50% Heitkamp is a good campaigner but politics is becoming more national than ever, better retail politicians than her have lost reelection big time, While the environment is much better for democrats than 2014 Mary Landrieu was every bit the retail campaigner Heitkamp is but she still lost to a boring candidate, same with Tom Daschle years ago