ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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  ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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Author Topic: ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are  (Read 106596 times)
PAK Man
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« Reply #225 on: February 15, 2018, 04:09:58 PM »

I feel like Heitkamp's chances at reelection would increase quite a bit if he ran/was the nominee.
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windjammer
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« Reply #226 on: February 15, 2018, 04:12:44 PM »

If I recall correctly, they absolutely didn't want him to run initially. He's a gaffe prone candidate.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #227 on: February 15, 2018, 04:44:16 PM »

I’m moving it from Tilt D to Tossup but closer to Tilt R than Tilt D
thanks for the free laughs man, I need it right now!
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UWS
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« Reply #228 on: February 15, 2018, 04:58:09 PM »

So it's official : The Bismarck Tribune reported that Kevin Cramer just reversed course and will run for senate in 2018 against Heidi Heitkamp.

http://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/on-second-thought-cramer-s-in-north-dakota-senate-race/article_5a5966ff-4804-5454-98bf-1c80f8e77511.html#tracking-source=home-top-story
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Mycool
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« Reply #229 on: February 15, 2018, 05:24:49 PM »

Fundamentally, this changes very little. This is still a tilt D race. Heitkamp is still above water, and shouldn’t be underrated.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #230 on: February 15, 2018, 05:30:11 PM »

I feel like Heitkamp's chances at reelection would increase quite a bit if he ran/was the nominee.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #231 on: February 15, 2018, 05:35:54 PM »

Can't wait for Cramer's career-ending gaffe!
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #232 on: February 15, 2018, 05:38:59 PM »

He's an Akin in the makin.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #233 on: February 15, 2018, 05:40:40 PM »

I’m moving it from Tilt D to Tossup but closer to Tilt R than Tilt D

Cramer got many more votes than Heitkamp in the 2012 election. Advantage to the GOP.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #234 on: February 15, 2018, 05:41:54 PM »

I’m moving it from Tilt D to Tossup but closer to Tilt R than Tilt D

Cramer got many more votes than Heitkamp in the 2012 election. Advantage to the GOP.
Trump got many more votes than Peterson in the 2016 election. Advantage to the GOP.
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Orser67
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« Reply #235 on: February 15, 2018, 07:55:37 PM »

A moderate-sized recruiting victory for the GOP. I'm moving the race back to Lean D.
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MarkD
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« Reply #236 on: February 15, 2018, 08:05:11 PM »

I'm shocked. I didn't think Cramer would do it.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #237 on: February 15, 2018, 08:17:16 PM »

Check out this candidate named Paul Schaffner.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #238 on: February 15, 2018, 11:09:12 PM »

Could someone change the title to "Cramer In?"
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #239 on: February 15, 2018, 11:55:59 PM »

Granted I know that barring a new 9/11 that this climate is much better from democrats than 2014 but Mary Landrieu, Evan Bayh, and Mark Pryor were all gifted retail politicians on tge same level as Heitkamp but it didn't stop them from getting curbstomped by boring candidates

None of these guys hold a candle to Heitkamp in terms of candidate quality, retail politics, charisma, etc.

Cramer entering probably moves it from Likely/Safe D to Lean/Likely D, but Heitkamp still has a significant advantage in this race. Cramer is probably the Republican candidate most likely to implode Akin-style IMO.

Is this his new New Hampshire? I've been out of the loop.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #240 on: February 16, 2018, 12:01:39 AM »

Is this his new New Hampshire? I've been out of the loop.

No, but Heitkamp is being seriously underestimated by Republicans, just like in 2012. She’s not losing in a wave or even a neutral year. You people are acting as if the 2016 results are the only thing that matters.
Seriously R's go from down 11 to 8 on the CGB in February and all of a sudden RWers and a few concern trolls act like this a 2014 environment
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Virginiá
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« Reply #241 on: February 16, 2018, 12:14:57 AM »

Seriously R's go from down 11 to 8 on the CGB in February and all of a sudden RWers and a few concern trolls act like this a 2014 environment

In a way, it's not entirely their fault. They have gotten so used to winning election after election in the Obama era that they forgot what it's like to be on the losing side of an election season. The bar has also been set pretty high for Democrats due to the estimations of their needed margin to take back the House (>= D+7), so it gives Republicans breathing room when pushing their narrative.

I suspect people will look at all of this differently in 2019-2020.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #242 on: February 16, 2018, 01:19:06 AM »

RIP Heidi, twas nice having you in the senate. Either Campbell or Cramer will level her by a high single digit to mid double digit margin. Strong Lean R.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #243 on: February 16, 2018, 01:24:02 AM »

She is coming close to DOA.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #244 on: February 16, 2018, 01:31:25 AM »

Oh please
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #245 on: February 16, 2018, 01:37:11 AM »


She has already proven to be able to lose statewide, and this is a perfect storm again, not everything is all fun and blue waves sheesh.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #246 on: February 16, 2018, 01:46:15 AM »
« Edited: February 16, 2018, 01:48:37 AM by Bagel23 »

She has already proven to be able to lose statewide, and this is a perfect storm again, not everything is all fun and blue waves sheesh.

How so? Also, why are you so bearish on Heitkamp’s chances but bullish on McCaskill, Tester, Manchin, etc.?

She lost in 2000, but now she’s the incumbent, and an incredibly popular one at that. I can see Tossup, but DOA is nonsense.

I am middle of the road on McCaskill, slight tilt D, but basically pure tossup, I am bearish on Tester now, I think he stands at lean R, I put it at Lean D till last may and then Assaultforte won and Tester swung hard left, I think he loses by 3-4 pts. Manchin, bullish yes. He is my favorite senator and so I tend to favor him a bit even in predicitions, and polling is showing him ahead, and he has never lost a statewide GE in WV either. He could definately lose though, but Lean D, I think he wins by high single digits.

Polls are down on her, GOP has great recruits, ND is going even harder red, etc. And she is popular, but Cramer outclasses her. Also, I said close to DOA, not DOA.
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Seattle
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« Reply #247 on: February 16, 2018, 01:48:37 AM »

Also, the 2000 race was against John Hoeven and was affected by her breast cancer diagnosis + surgery.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #248 on: February 16, 2018, 01:49:03 AM »

If anything, that got her sympathy votes.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #249 on: February 16, 2018, 01:54:09 AM »

I am bearish on Tester now, I think he stands at lean R, I put it at Lean D till last may and then Assaultforte won and Tester swung hard left, I think he loses by 3-4 pts.

He could lose, but I’d definitely not rate it Lean R. Lean D seems more reasonable, though you could also make a case for Tilt D or Tossup. I think you’re really underestimating how Democratic-friendly those states can be down-ballot. To many voters, personality and candidate quality matter a lot more than party affiliation.

There has been no polling for a Cramer vs. Heitkamp matchup, btw.

Tester was voting like a solid blue dog, and I was still thinking of a tossup to tilt D rating even after Assaultforte, but then he swung very left on voting after the obamacare repeal block during the summer.
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