ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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  ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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Author Topic: ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are  (Read 106605 times)
peterthlee
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« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2017, 08:36:39 PM »

Yeah, I agree with the people in this thread. How anyone can think that this is an easier pickup for the GOP than IN or MO is beyond me. Even in a good year for Republicans and if Trump's approvals are in the high 60s in ND, I think that this is one of the races that will probably stay Democratic, kinda like VA in 2014. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a state like FL or WI went Republican before ND.

If Heitkamp wins in 2018, I have little doubt that she will become a lifer. Thank you, Rick Berg. This is why open seats in supposedly "red" states should never, never, never be taken for granted by the Republican Party.
Yup. She will win, but by a squeaker (just a redux of what happened in 2012).
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #26 on: April 14, 2017, 11:48:12 PM »

Yeah, I agree with the people in this thread. How anyone can think that this is an easier pickup for the GOP than IN or MO is beyond me. Even in a good year for Republicans and if Trump's approvals are in the high 60s in ND, I think that this is one of the races that will probably stay Democratic, kinda like VA in 2014. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a state like FL or WI went Republican before ND.

If Heitkamp wins in 2018, I have little doubt that she will become a lifer. Thank you, Rick Berg. This is why open seats in supposedly "red" states should never, never, never be taken for granted by the Republican Party.
Yup. She will win, but by a squeaker (just a redux of what happened in 2012).
And then hopefully she gets entrenched.
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windjammer
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« Reply #27 on: April 15, 2017, 04:55:24 AM »

CNN: Nervous about GOP congressman, Republicans woo new North Dakota Senate candidate

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/14/politics/kevin-cramer-north-dakota-senate/
I don't understand why they are searching someone who is able to self-fundraise particularly. I mean, it's a cheap state, not Florida.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #28 on: April 15, 2017, 09:59:46 AM »

Watch Cramer run and get crushes, Akin style
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #29 on: April 15, 2017, 11:49:08 AM »

Watch Cramer run and get crushes, Akin style

I doubt it. Ftr, this is what Cramer had to say:

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https://gantdaily.com/2017/04/15/nervous-about-gop-congressman-republicans-woo-new-north-dakota-senate-candidate/

Tbh, he kind of has a point.  I don't think conventional wisdom about who is supposedly "electable" is relevant anymore. Both of them could win, both of them could lose. No one knows for sure.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #30 on: April 15, 2017, 12:35:04 PM »

Watch Cramer run and get crushes, Akin style

I doubt it. Ftr, this is what Cramer had to say:

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https://gantdaily.com/2017/04/15/nervous-about-gop-congressman-republicans-woo-new-north-dakota-senate-candidate/

Tbh, he kind of has a point.  I don't think conventional wisdom about who is supposedly "electable" is relevant anymore. Both of them could win, both of them could lose. No one knows for sure.
I totally agree. Of course, being the King of Town Hapls could still help Cramer.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #31 on: April 15, 2017, 01:14:13 PM »

If Cramer says more stupid things like this, Heitkamp may have a chance, but assuming that her personality/ideology alone is going to be enough to carry her to victory in a Trump +35 state is foolish.

ND reelected Dorgan and Conrad in landslides every 6 years, and Cramer is no John Hoeven. Don't underestimate the power of retail politics.

Heitkamp isn't entrenched like they were (at least not yet.) Of course Heitkamp isn't going to lose by 35, but North Dakota has gotten a lot more Republican since her first election, and I don't think we can ignore that.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #32 on: June 01, 2017, 04:36:35 AM »

This is interesting:

http://www.grandforksherald.com/4276009-port-state-senator-tom-campbell-apparently-polling-ahead-potential-2018-run

I hope Campbell doesn't challenge Cramer, not that I expect either one to beat Heitkamp (but I believe Cramer would be stronger, honestly).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #33 on: June 22, 2017, 05:24:09 PM »

Now I understand why you think she's heavily favored. She's hard not to like.

If it weren't for polarization, I'd definitely rate this Safe D. But Lean/Likely D seems about right for now. She's probably going to steamroll her opponent anyway, though, regardless of whether 2018 is a good year for Rs or not.  

Why can't Republicans run candidates like Heitkamp everywhere?
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Kamala
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« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2017, 05:24:54 PM »

Now I understand why you think she's heavily favored. She's hard not to like.

If it weren't for polarization, I'd definitely rate this Safe D. But Lean/Likely D seems about right for now. She's probably going to steamroll her opponent anyway, though. 

Why can't Republicans run candidates like Heitkamp everywhere?

I genuinely think that North Dakota has the best pair of senators currently serving.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #35 on: June 22, 2017, 06:19:45 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2017, 06:21:18 PM by azcactus »

Now I understand why you think she's heavily favored. She's hard not to like.

If it weren't for polarization, I'd definitely rate this Safe D. But Lean/Likely D seems about right for now. She's probably going to steamroll her opponent anyway, though.  

Why can't Republicans run candidates like Heitkamp everywhere?

I genuinely think that North Dakota has the best pair of senators currently serving.

I've always thought it a little amusing that North Dakota's star senatorial pair started their careers duking it out for the governorship.

At any rate, I agree with the narrative here. Heitkamp is in hostile territory, but everyone likes her and the Republican bench is even worse than Montana's. More to the point, North Dakota isn't a state that boots out incumbents.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #36 on: June 23, 2017, 01:23:22 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2017, 01:32:51 AM by ERM64man »

Yeah, I agree with the people in this thread. How anyone can think that this is an easier pickup for the GOP than IN or MO is beyond me. Even in a good year for Republicans and if Trump's approvals are in the high 60s in ND, I think that this is one of the races that will probably stay Democratic, kinda like VA in 2014. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a state like FL or WI went Republican before ND.

If Heitkamp wins in 2018, I have little doubt that she will become a lifer. Thank you, Rick Berg. This is why open seats in supposedly "red" states should never, never, never be taken for granted by the Republican Party.
Yeah I really think Rick Berg is at fault. He should have just ran for reelection, and Cramer should have gone for this seat. Or Kalk, Schmidt, Wrigley, etc. the bench was big. Trying to jump to the upper chamber immediately after entering the lower chamber looks so bad, in general.

Steve Daines and Tom Cotton may disagree with you there.
So do John Boozman and Mike Crapo.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #37 on: June 23, 2017, 07:49:36 PM »

Lean D. Closer to Likely D than Tossup.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #38 on: June 23, 2017, 09:15:59 PM »

Yeah, I agree with the people in this thread. How anyone can think that this is an easier pickup for the GOP than IN or MO is beyond me. Even in a good year for Republicans and if Trump's approvals are in the high 60s in ND, I think that this is one of the races that will probably stay Democratic, kinda like VA in 2014. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a state like FL or WI went Republican before ND.

If Heitkamp wins in 2018, I have little doubt that she will become a lifer. Thank you, Rick Berg. This is why open seats in supposedly "red" states should never, never, never be taken for granted by the Republican Party.
Yeah I really think Rick Berg is at fault. He should have just ran for reelection, and Cramer should have gone for this seat. Or Kalk, Schmidt, Wrigley, etc. the bench was big. Trying to jump to the upper chamber immediately after entering the lower chamber looks so bad, in general.

Steve Daines and Tom Cotton may disagree with you there.
So do John Boozman and Mike Crapo.
John Boozman was in the House for almost a decade before running for the Senate.
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Badger
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« Reply #39 on: June 23, 2017, 11:51:24 PM »

Lean D. Closer to Likely D than Tossup.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #40 on: July 01, 2017, 05:51:50 PM »

Sexist or not, criticism of a journalist at MSNBC is red meat for the voters of North Dakota.
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Kamala
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« Reply #41 on: July 01, 2017, 06:06:26 PM »

Sexist or not, criticism of a journalist at MSNBC is red meat for the voters of North Dakota.

The "Heidi-Ho" ad in 2012 backfired spectacularly, even though Berg didn't even make any major gaffes like Cramer.

It's clear that the ND GOP doesn't have a John Thune capable of beating Heitkamp.

Before the DAPL protests and his mishandling of it, I would've said Dalrymple, but now I think the only person who could beat Heitkamp is the only person who has already beaten her - and he's already a senator. Tongue
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #42 on: July 01, 2017, 06:06:29 PM »

Sexist or not, criticism of a journalist at MSNBC is red meat for the voters of North Dakota.

The "Heidi-Ho" ad in 2012 backfired spectacularly, even though Berg didn't even make any major gaffes like Cramer.
North Dakota has a lot of self-described "moderates". While the media is unpopular, I think it's overemphasized how much voters have that on their minds while voting, and I doubt a lot of moderate voters vote on that.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #43 on: July 01, 2017, 06:31:18 PM »

Sexist or not, criticism of a journalist at MSNBC is red meat for the voters of North Dakota.

The "Heidi-Ho" ad in 2012 backfired spectacularly, even though Berg didn't even make any major gaffes like Cramer.

It's clear that the ND GOP doesn't have a John Thune capable of beating Heitkamp.
Don't get me wrong, I think Heitkamp is favored. But, if Cramer runs and uses rhetoric like this, he could chip away at her advantage.
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Cactus Jack
azcactus
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« Reply #44 on: July 01, 2017, 07:48:14 PM »

Ye gods, how is it possible that such a Republican state could have such an overwhelmingly terrible Republican bench?
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #45 on: July 01, 2017, 08:12:23 PM »

Ye gods, how is it possible that such a Republican state could have such an overwhelmingly terrible Republican bench?

It hasn't been Republican for terribly long. People have to remember that the upper plains only started turning blood-red in the 1990s, and that's taken pretty long to filter up to the federal level.
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Xing
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« Reply #46 on: July 01, 2017, 08:33:51 PM »

Somehow, I don't think Cramer siding with Trump will hurt him in a state Trump won by 36...
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Kamala
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« Reply #47 on: July 01, 2017, 08:42:17 PM »

Ye gods, how is it possible that such a Republican state could have such an overwhelmingly terrible Republican bench?

It hasn't been Republican for terribly long. People have to remember that the upper plains only started turning blood-red in the 1990s, and that's taken pretty long to filter up to the federal level.

South Dakota's been "blood red" at the state level for a while. Republicans have controlled the State Senate since the 1970s (except for 2 years in the 90s) and the State House since the 30s, the governor's mansion since the late 70s. Sure, we had a fully Democratic congressional delegation, but it's not because we were a swing state...
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Kamala
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« Reply #48 on: July 01, 2017, 09:43:18 PM »

Collins and Snowe were winning at similar margins - Snowe won with nearly 75% of the vote in the 2006 wave, as well as over 60% in the good Dem senate year of 2000, and Collins won with more than 60% during the 2008 Obama landslide. Doesn't mean Maine wasn't a fairly reliable Dem state during that period.

It just comes down to personality and retail politics in these small states, as I'm sure you know.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #49 on: July 01, 2017, 10:07:29 PM »

ND loved Trump, Cramer seems right up their alley.
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