When We Stand Divided - A Story of the Second American Civil War

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Wow I was catching up on this when I realized the stuff was written even before Jan 6 2021. Hopefully that's the closest you get to your prediction coming true

[Skill and Chance]

Very interesting idea, and thank God it didn't literally happen. 

My main critique is that I don't think the right wing government being headquartered in Florida would work out.  The Navy is by far the most left-leaning branch of the military, and basically every square inch of Florida would be vulnerable to a coastal bombardment if it was surrounded by warships.  I think Florida would be strong-armed into the left wing coalition almost immediately, like you had happen with Arizona.  Because it is also a peninsula where practically everything would be in range of the naval guns, Michigan would be easily held in the left wing coalition.  Chicago and Cleveland would also be easily defensible from the lakeshore.  The left wing government being headquartered in NYC would be quite logical, because it's an island and they would have unusually limited opposition in the nearby rural areas.  Again, with the naval advantage, the left wing government should have uncontested control over everything NE of Raleigh Durham. 

However, basically all of the inland left-leaning cities would be hopeless to defend unless surrounded by mountains and still probably hopeless to resupply.  The left wing government would have absolute control of the West Coast itself, but it also wouldn't have a prayer of advancing east of the Sierra Nevada.  The most logical location for the headquarters of the right wing government would be somewhere in Tennessee. 

The win condition for the left wing government would be capturing the oil producing and refining regions along and near the Gulf Coast with their naval advantage (for this reason, I would expect New Orleans to be the left holdout city in the Deep South rather than Atlanta).  The win condition for the right wing government would be cutting off the NE/Great Lakes cities from enough farmland to feed their populations.   The right wing government is probably favored to win, but if it loses, it loses completely once the left wing government finds a way over or around all the mountains.  By contrast, forcing the West Coast to rejoin a victorious right wing government would be next to impossible.

[Person Man]

Very interesting idea, and thank God it didn't literally happen.  

My main critique is that I don't think the right wing government being headquartered in Florida would work out.  The Navy is by far the most left-leaning branch of the military, and basically every square inch of Florida would be vulnerable to a coastal bombardment if it was surrounded by warships.  I think Florida would be strong-armed into the left wing coalition almost immediately, like you had happen with Arizona.  Because it is also a peninsula where practically everything would be in range of the naval guns, Michigan would be easily held in the left wing coalition.  Chicago and Cleveland would also be easily defensible from the lakeshore.  The left wing government being headquartered in NYC would be quite logical, because it's an island and they would have unusually limited opposition in the nearby rural areas.  Again, with the naval advantage, the left wing government should have uncontested control over everything NE of Raleigh Durham.  

However, basically all of the inland left-leaning cities would be hopeless to defend unless surrounded by mountains and still probably hopeless to resupply.  The left wing government would have absolute control of the West Coast itself, but it also wouldn't have a prayer of advancing east of the Sierra Nevada.  The most logical location for the headquarters of the right wing government would be somewhere in Tennessee.  

The win condition for the left wing government would be capturing the oil producing and refining regions along and near the Gulf Coast with their naval advantage (for this reason, I would expect New Orleans to be the left holdout city in the Deep South rather than Atlanta).  The win condition for the right wing government would be cutting off the NE/Great Lakes cities from enough farmland to feed their populations.   The right wing government is probably favored to win, but if it loses, it loses completely once the left wing government finds a way over or around all the mountains.  By contrast, forcing the West Coast to rejoin a victorious right wing government would be next to impossible.

I can definitely believe a civil war against a left-of-center Government would take years to resolve, but it would eventually be resolved. A war against a right-of-center Government will probably be resolved in months, if not weeks, but California, maybe minus some rural areas and plus the urban parts of Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington will probably stay a thorn in a would-be Gilead's side for years if not decades. It would be really interesting to see how that would shake things up globally.

California would take about 10% of the land and 20% of the people to go out on their own. So the United States will be diminished and California would basically be as powerful as France or Germany on its own. My guess is that the remaining US would probably leave Europe to fend for itself against Russia and would be cut off from meddling in Asia. They would probably be interested in dominating the politics in Latin America and maybe will increase their presence in Africa instead. California would probably get really close with Japan, RoK, RoC, and Australia. Maybe India, but probably not.

In this situation, it would be interesting if Russia can reconquer its empire and the PRC to start expanding in the Pacific and how they would both deal with C.A. until the US reorganizes back home.  Of course, because the two sides in the Civil War still have nukes and apparently are not using them on each other, there is still (sort of) a nuclear deterrent to say keep Putin out of Estonia, Moldova/Romania, and Poland. Same thing with Xi with Kazakhstan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, I guess. Then again, a civil war in the US could eventually cause WWIII or at least make it inevitable in the following 10 years if it doesn't.

What's really interesting is what a post-Civil War United States would actually be like and what they would do on the outsid.

[Skill and Chance]

Very interesting idea, and thank God it didn't literally happen. 

My main critique is that I don't think the right wing government being headquartered in Florida would work out.  The Navy is by far the most left-leaning branch of the military, and basically every square inch of Florida would be vulnerable to a coastal bombardment if it was surrounded by warships.  I think Florida would be strong-armed into the left wing coalition almost immediately, like you had happen with Arizona.  Because it is also a peninsula where practically everything would be in range of the naval guns, Michigan would be easily held in the left wing coalition.  Chicago and Cleveland would also be easily defensible from the lakeshore.  The left wing government being headquartered in NYC would be quite logical, because it's an island and they would have unusually limited opposition in the nearby rural areas.  Again, with the naval advantage, the left wing government should have uncontested control over everything NE of Raleigh Durham. 

However, basically all of the inland left-leaning cities would be hopeless to defend unless surrounded by mountains and still probably hopeless to resupply.  The left wing government would have absolute control of the West Coast itself, but it also wouldn't have a prayer of advancing east of the Sierra Nevada.  The most logical location for the headquarters of the right wing government would be somewhere in Tennessee. 

The win condition for the left wing government would be capturing the oil producing and refining regions along and near the Gulf Coast with their naval advantage (for this reason, I would expect New Orleans to be the left holdout city in the Deep South rather than Atlanta).  The win condition for the right wing government would be cutting off the NE/Great Lakes cities from enough farmland to feed their populations.   The right wing government is probably favored to win, but if it loses, it loses completely once the left wing government finds a way over or around all the mountains.  By contrast, forcing the West Coast to rejoin a victorious right wing government would be next to impossible.

I can definitely believe a civil war against a left-of-center Government would take years to resolve, but it would eventually be resolved. A war against a right-of-center Government will probably be resolved in months, if not weeks, but California, maybe minus some rural areas and plus the urban parts of Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington will probably stay a thorn in a would-be Gilead's side for years if not decades. It would be really interesting to see how that would shake things up globally.

California would take about 10% of the land and 20% of the people to go out on their own. So the United States will be diminished and California would basically be as powerful as France or Germany on its own. My guess is that the remaining US would probably leave Europe to fend for itself against Russia and would be cut off from meddling in Asia. They would probably be interested in dominating the politics in Latin America and maybe will increase their presence in Africa instead. California would probably get really close with Japan, RoK, RoC, and Australia. Maybe India, but probably not.

In this situation, it would be interesting if Russia can reconquer its empire and the PRC to start expanding in the Pacific and how they would both deal with C.A. until the US reorganizes back home.  Of course, because the two sides in the Civil War still have nukes and apparently are not using them on each other, there is still (sort of) a nuclear deterrent to say keep Putin out of Estonia, Moldova/Romania, and Poland. Same thing with Xi with Kazakhstan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, I guess. Then again, a civil war in the US could eventually cause WWIII or at least make it inevitable in the following 10 years if it doesn't.

What's really interesting is what a post-Civil War United States would actually be like and what they would do on the outsid.

The left wing coalition would need a way to compel the Gulf Coast states to keep the energy pipelines flowing N and E, or they lose everything east of the Rockies within a couple of months.

By contrast, left wing areas along and west of the Rockies are largely self-sufficient with the nearby right wing areas being economically dependent on them.

[Person Man]

Very interesting idea, and thank God it didn't literally happen. 

My main critique is that I don't think the right wing government being headquartered in Florida would work out.  The Navy is by far the most left-leaning branch of the military, and basically every square inch of Florida would be vulnerable to a coastal bombardment if it was surrounded by warships.  I think Florida would be strong-armed into the left wing coalition almost immediately, like you had happen with Arizona.  Because it is also a peninsula where practically everything would be in range of the naval guns, Michigan would be easily held in the left wing coalition.  Chicago and Cleveland would also be easily defensible from the lakeshore.  The left wing government being headquartered in NYC would be quite logical, because it's an island and they would have unusually limited opposition in the nearby rural areas.  Again, with the naval advantage, the left wing government should have uncontested control over everything NE of Raleigh Durham. 

However, basically all of the inland left-leaning cities would be hopeless to defend unless surrounded by mountains and still probably hopeless to resupply.  The left wing government would have absolute control of the West Coast itself, but it also wouldn't have a prayer of advancing east of the Sierra Nevada.  The most logical location for the headquarters of the right wing government would be somewhere in Tennessee. 

The win condition for the left wing government would be capturing the oil producing and refining regions along and near the Gulf Coast with their naval advantage (for this reason, I would expect New Orleans to be the left holdout city in the Deep South rather than Atlanta).  The win condition for the right wing government would be cutting off the NE/Great Lakes cities from enough farmland to feed their populations.   The right wing government is probably favored to win, but if it loses, it loses completely once the left wing government finds a way over or around all the mountains.  By contrast, forcing the West Coast to rejoin a victorious right wing government would be next to impossible.

I can definitely believe a civil war against a left-of-center Government would take years to resolve, but it would eventually be resolved. A war against a right-of-center Government will probably be resolved in months, if not weeks, but California, maybe minus some rural areas and plus the urban parts of Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington will probably stay a thorn in a would-be Gilead's side for years if not decades. It would be really interesting to see how that would shake things up globally.

California would take about 10% of the land and 20% of the people to go out on their own. So the United States will be diminished and California would basically be as powerful as France or Germany on its own. My guess is that the remaining US would probably leave Europe to fend for itself against Russia and would be cut off from meddling in Asia. They would probably be interested in dominating the politics in Latin America and maybe will increase their presence in Africa instead. California would probably get really close with Japan, RoK, RoC, and Australia. Maybe India, but probably not.

In this situation, it would be interesting if Russia can reconquer its empire and the PRC to start expanding in the Pacific and how they would both deal with C.A. until the US reorganizes back home.  Of course, because the two sides in the Civil War still have nukes and apparently are not using them on each other, there is still (sort of) a nuclear deterrent to say keep Putin out of Estonia, Moldova/Romania, and Poland. Same thing with Xi with Kazakhstan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, I guess. Then again, a civil war in the US could eventually cause WWIII or at least make it inevitable in the following 10 years if it doesn't.

What's really interesting is what a post-Civil War United States would actually be like and what they would do on the outsid.

The left wing coalition would need a way to compel the Gulf Coast states to keep the energy pipelines flowing N and E, or they lose everything east of the Rockies within a couple of months.

By contrast, left wing areas along and west of the Rockies are largely self-sufficient with the nearby right wing areas being economically dependent on them.

California sounds like Constantinople. And in a bad-case future, they might be.