TX-SEN: True to Form

[Florida Man for Crime]

My TX Early Vote analysis based on TargetSmart data (see the Early Voting thread for more info and also for similar slightly less-in-depth analysis for other states):

Code:

TX --- All Voters  ---           38.8% D --- 52.5% R --- 8.7% UNK ---                          D+6.4 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014
TX --- Super Voter ---           35.0% D --- 61.5% R --- 3.5% UNK ---                          D+1.5 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (R+2 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)
TX --- Freq. Voter ---           40.7% D --- 51.7% R --- 7.5% UNK ---                          D+3.8 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (R+0.3 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)
TX --- InFreq. Vt. ---           39.9% D --- 44.3% R --- 15.8% UNK ---                          D+5.5 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (R+1.3 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)
TX --- Never Voted ---           41.3% D --- 38.5% R --- 20.2% UNK ---                          D+9.3 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014 ---              (R+0.5 Change in Swing Since Oct 31)

Because of my special interest in TX I will say a bit more, and speculate about Beto's chances of winning...

First of all, TX is the main state where I wish we had 2016 numbers for comparison. They would be more informative than 2014. But alas... We have to do with what TargetSmart gives us here...

The early vote in TX DOES look very good by historical standards, in comparison to 2014. Youth turnout IS way up. Hispanic turnout IS is amazing compared to historical standards for a midterm, and compared to all reasonable expectations. Beto HAS run an amazing campaign, and HAS achieved something special, unique, and important for the future of the TX Democratic party and the National Democratic Party. Everything that people say to that effect IS true.

There IS a significantly larger than average swing (D+6.4) in the early vote in TX. And what is better, the gains are (somewhat) concentrated among Infrequent voters (D+5.5) and especially New voters (D+9.3).

Something special IS happening in Texas.

And nevertheless, after all this, there is an overall 52.5% - 38.8% Republican advantage (13.7% margin) in modeled partisanship among all early voters. As another way to look at that, even if you were to say that 100% of the people with Unclear partisanship were actually Dems, there would still be a 52.5% - 47.5% Republican advantage. The problem is that Democrats lost by 20 points in 2014. So not just a large improvement is needed, but a massive improvement is needed.

And here is the part that is worse news for Beto... Despite the large swings to Dems, concentrated among Infrequent Voters, there remains a Modeled R advantage even among Infrequent Voters (44.3%-39.9%). But to win, Beto doesn't need to just come close with infrequent/new voters, but to win them overwhelmingly, and turn them out in large numbers. It looks like there are too many modeled Rs among them for that to really be the case - or at least for it to be the case enough for him to actually win.

So despite how amazing the TX early vote is as compared to 2014, the data does NOT really suggest a Beto win. True, it suggests definite large over-performance as compared to 2014 (which I think will pay dividends in TX-07, TX-32, and hopefully a variety of other state legislative races and maybe even one or two additional congressional races if we are lucky), but Dems lost by 20+ statewide in 2014.

Somewhat similarly to Georgia and Tennessee, the only way the early vote data suggests the possibility of a Beto win is if there are really large numbers of people showing up in the data as Modeled Republicans, but who have abandoned the Republican party. To some extent that is probably true, but while polling indicates Beto is doing well with independents, it does not indicate that he is really doing particularly well with actual Republicans. So I am skeptical, and I would say to have any chance of winning, Beto needs a truly unprecedented and amazing election day. Beto voters and Democrats have to vote overwhelmingly on election day, and Republicans have to not keep voting like they have been voting in early voting so far.

While it is possible Beto could keep it pretty close, we should also not be too surprised if Cruz ends up winning by double digits (indeed, if Beto only loses by low double digits in a midterm, that would be a remarkable achievement and improvement by realistic standards for a TX Dem). I think that is a bit less likely than it was a week or so ago (the last week of early voting has been good), but it still remains much more possible than a lot of people seem to recognize.

The R+ swings since Oct 31 are reminiscent of Nevada, and I think potentially for the same basic reasons - they may indicate more about how horrendous 2014 was for TX Dems as opposed to how good or bad 2018 will be. But on the other hand, to have any chance of Dems winning, a much larger improvement is required in TX than NV.

[Lord Admirale]

Sorry, I must have missed the three sentences about three candidates. I mean, wow, so much info.

Still evidence, bud.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Alright, looks like its time for me to dissect some evidence as well.

The fact that you say Doug ran a moderate campaign is laughable. He was known to be running a campaign "Too Left for Alabama" and was openly pro-choice, pro-LGBT, and was rather progressive on economics as well.

He didn't campaign on it. Yes, he did support those positions, but when you look at his advertising, most of them were focused on working in a bipartisan and centrist way. He didn't run as a champion of progressive ideals.

Archie Parnell ran a good campaign, but saying he preformed so well because he was moderate is ludicrous. It also doesnt help that he didnt preform the best out of the special Dems, which are shown here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/25/us/politics/special-election-results-shift-democratic.html

He still performed much better than a Democrat has performed since 2008.

As for Bredesen, he really is only competitive because he was governor. The Democratic candidate for governor, Dean, is almost the exact same candidate, and he is losing badly. A name can do a lot for a person.

He's pulling Republican support because he's got big name recognition and he's a moderate. If he was running an AOC-like campaign, he'd be getting eviscerated in polls. Name recognition wouldn't matter at all.

He still performed much better than a Democrat has performed since 2008.

As for counter evidence, I point towards McBath over-preforming Ossoff, Abrams, Gillum. There's three right there.

The elections in Georgia haven't even happened, so we don't know how McBath will do against Karen Handel or how Abrams will do against Kemp. As for Gillum, his opponent is an idiot who doesn't know how to keep his mouth shut. Florida itself is a more moderate state and those moderates would rather vote for a Democrat than an actual racist.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Beto needs to flip the following Counties to win if its a uniform swing from 2016:

Jefferson
Hays
Nueces
Brewster
Tarrant

[The Mikado]

Tarrant County is a close-to-perfect bellwether. If O'Rourke wins it, at best for Cruz, Cruz is winning by 1-2 points, and, more likely, he's underwater.

[libertpaulian]

Tarrant County is a close-to-perfect bellwether. If O'Rourke wins it, at best for Cruz, Cruz is winning by 1-2 points, and, more likely, he's underwater.

Who does the early vote in Tarrant favor?

[SCNCmod]

Here is a rather simplistic look at some numbers in Texas- that I posted in response on the early voting thread.... That I think will be key tomorrow if Beto wins...
..
..

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

In theory- the Under 40 vote have gained 11% of the share of electorate. (That's a 640,000 increase in share... so far).

In 2016... Trump won the state by 800,000 votes out of 8.5M votes cast.

No exact science there... but with that big of an increase in the Under 40% of the electorate (which one would assume is very heavily Beto)...if the % share holds...  you start to see a way for Beto to make up an 800,000 deficit (actually less if you assume Total votes in 2018 will be less than 2016).

I've thought Beto had a better than 50% chance of winning the past couple of week (I just can't imagine Beto having that much energy and buzz and not winning... esp with such a lack of energy for Ted).   But seeing what such an increase in under 40s (as actual % of the electorate)...  can mean in actual votes- Now I really think Beto is more likely to win than Ted.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Tarrant County is a close-to-perfect bellwether. If O'Rourke wins it, at best for Cruz, Cruz is winning by 1-2 points, and, more likely, he's underwater.

Who does the early vote in Tarrant favor?

The distribution of early vote across precincts when I looked at it (more towards the start of early vote) was pretty similar to 2016, but just a tad more in R precincts than that.

However, Devout Centrist said that part of the R precincts in which it was more concentrated in was particularly in areas that swung a lot from Romney to Clinton.

So the pessimistic take for Beto is that it is a bit more R than 2016. The optimistic take for Beto is that it is up particularly among former Rs that are now voting for Beto.

To tell which of those it is with more certainty, you would need more detailed voter file data and modeling on the county level than what is publicly available.

Part of my take is that the DSCC/NRSC do have that more detailed data, and neither of them is really spending in TX, so...

[Landslide Lyndon]

LMAO!!!

[wbrocks67]

Tarrant County is a close-to-perfect bellwether. If O'Rourke wins it, at best for Cruz, Cruz is winning by 1-2 points, and, more likely, he's underwater.

Who does the early vote in Tarrant favor?

The distribution of early vote across precincts when I looked at it (more towards the start of early vote) was pretty similar to 2016, but just a tad more in R precincts than that.

However, Devout Centrist said that part of the R precincts in which it was more concentrated in was particularly in areas that swung a lot from Romney to Clinton.

So the pessimistic take for Beto is that it is a bit more R than 2016. The optimistic take for Beto is that it is up particularly among former Rs that are now voting for Beto.

To tell which of those it is with more certainty, you would need more detailed voter file data and modeling on the county level than what is publicly available.

Part of my take is that the DSCC/NRSC do have that more detailed data, and neither of them is really spending in TX, so...

Pretty sure Dems stayed out of TX because they wanted to let Beto take care of it himself and be able to have the "independent" angle. Not to mention Beto had enough $$$$ to take care of himself

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimCarrey/status/1059627359718924289?ref_src=twsrc%5E...
JIM. CARREY. WITH. THE. ETHER.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Pretty sure Dems stayed out of TX because they wanted to let Beto take care of it himself and be able to have the "independent" angle. Not to mention Beto had enough $$$$ to take care of himself

That is also true (and more so true) of TN... Bredesen could self-fund as much as he wanted, and if anything he is trying to be more "independent" of the national party than Beto.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Even if Beto loses, this is very heartwarming.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1059828415145095169

[Galaxie]

To anyone reading this who lives in Texas -- vote Ted Cruz and straight Republican downballot!

#SendTrumpReinforcements
#LionTed

ngl this changed my mind

[Doimper]

To anyone reading this who lives in Texas -- vote Ted Cruz and straight Republican downballot!

#SendTrumpReinforcements
#LionTed

ngl this changed my mind

[Florida Man for Crime]

To anyone reading this who lives in Texas -- vote Ted Cruz and straight Republican downballot!

#SendTrumpReinforcements
#LionTed

I already voted. I really do not understand why you want me to vote twice and commit voter fraud. #RepublicansAreBadAndSupportVoterFraud

[Joey1996]

Looking pretty good for Beto

[super6646]

I kinda wanna see the democrats win Texas tbh. The meltdown would be legendary, and I honestly don't care much at this point.

[SteveRogers]

It’s gonna be pretty crazy if Beto wins while the Dems blow it everywhere else

[DabbingSanta]

Yup, I think Beto is going to pull an upset. This is even more impressive given that IN/MO/ND will almost certainly go Republican.

[Joey1996]

Houston doing God's work

[DabbingSanta]

Yup, I think Beto is going to pull an upset. This is even more impressive given that IN/MO/ND will almost certainly go Republican.

Or not. Still going to be incredibly close.

[Bidenworth2020]

msnbc calls it. makes no sense to me!

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Cruz won

[TML]

As I mentioned earlier, Beto's problem was that although he had a platform which appealed to progressives, he wasn't aggressive enough in his campaigning. IMO, if he had adopted Richard Ojeda's campaign style (which allowed him to outperform his district's partisan lean by double digits), he would probably be Senator-elect O'Rourke now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Valdez surge was too late for Beto, if White would of been nominated, it would have helped. Valdez was a gift to Cruz