TX-SEN: True to Form

[The Mikado]

Reapportionment/redistricting is going to be really, really tough for the GOP in 2020. A lot of Congressmen are going to be wailing for Trump 2016/2020 and Cruz 2018 districts, but there's only so many votes to go around in a TX the GOP wins by 5-10 rather than 15-20 as it was at the last redistricting. People will have to be triaged, and new Dem sinks constructed.

State House will be insane. 150 districts with the current population growth patterns is going to lead to a bunch of seats sucked out of rural Texas and into suburban/urban areas.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Reapportionment/redistricting is going to be really, really tough for the GOP in 2020. A lot of Congressmen are going to be wailing for Trump 2016/2020 and Cruz 2018 districts, but there's only so many votes to go around in a TX the GOP wins by 5-10 rather than 15-20 as it was at the last redistricting. People will have to be triaged, and new Dem sinks constructed.

State House will be insane. 150 districts with the current population growth patterns is going to lead to a bunch of seats sucked out of rural Texas and into suburban/urban areas.

mmmmm it depends. For Congress and State Senate, there are a lot of inefficiencies in the current gerrymanders that, if they want to and are willing to draw ugly lines, can be reduced and taken advantage of. Yeah, they will probably want to concede a proper full Congressional District in Austin, but  I am skeptical that they really need to do anything beyond that if they don't want to. It is all a matter of willpower, of how much they want to gerrymander it up.

Also, at least when the current gerrymander was originally drawn, they still had at least a bit more reason to fear the occasional possibility of some rural Dem resurgence. But not any more.

However, state House is indeed more difficult, simply because it is not possible to combine rural/suburban areas in so many districts in quite the same way. For example, how many State House seats do they really want to try to squeeze out of Dallas and Harris counties, and e.g. do they want to concede 1 in Collin/Williamson, or risk losing more later?

And in any case, at this point Cruz is (IMO) more likely to win by more than 5 than less.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Reapportionment/redistricting is going to be really, really tough for the GOP in 2020. A lot of Congressmen are going to be wailing for Trump 2016/2020 and Cruz 2018 districts, but there's only so many votes to go around in a TX the GOP wins by 5-10 rather than 15-20 as it was at the last redistricting. People will have to be triaged, and new Dem sinks constructed.

State House will be insane. 150 districts with the current population growth patterns is going to lead to a bunch of seats sucked out of rural Texas and into suburban/urban areas.

mmmmm it depends. For Congress and State Senate, there are a lot of inefficiencies in the current gerrymanders that, if they want to and are willing to draw ugly lines, can be reduced and taken advantage of. Yeah, they will probably want to concede a proper full Congressional District in Austin, but  I am skeptical that they really need to do anything beyond that if they don't want to. It is all a matter of willpower, of how much they want to gerrymander it up.

Also, at least when the current gerrymander was originally drawn, they still had at least a bit more reason to fear the occasional possibility of some rural Dem resurgence. But not any more.

However, state House is indeed more difficult, simply because it is not possible to combine rural/suburban areas in so many districts in quite the same way. For example, how many State House seats do they really want to try to squeeze out of Dallas and Harris counties, and e.g. do they want to concede 1 in Collin/Williamson, or risk losing more later?

And in any case, at this point Cruz is (IMO) more likely to win by more than 5 than less.

Bold prediction from INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win

[wbrocks67]

I follow Beto on socials, and he is doing literally multiple on multiple events everyday. Meeting voters at like 5-10 Early voting sites a day, pop up rallies. I mean, you have to give him credit. He is GRINDING. The Question is, is Ted doing anything like this? I'm genuinely curious. It would seem to me that Beto is out there working, while Ted is kind of coasting, assuming the Rs will come out and vote for him regardless (which is definitely possible). Beto is doing all of these events, but it feels like you hear nothing from Ted?

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

https://mobile.twitter.com/trvisXX/status/1056346595011321861?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1056670684733153282?ref_src=twsrc%...

This is amazing!

YOUNG IN FLAME HE IN VOTING MODE

It's November 6th I pull up to the booth
She said, "How you votin'?" I said, "Not Cruz"
All we really wanted, was just the truth
But Ted you Lyin', you gonna lose

Shorty FaceTime me out the blue

Brett Kavanaugh brought the beer and the boof

[icemanj]

I follow Beto on socials, and he is doing literally multiple on multiple events everyday. Meeting voters at like 5-10 Early voting sites a day, pop up rallies. I mean, you have to give him credit. He is GRINDING. The Question is, is Ted doing anything like this? I'm genuinely curious. It would seem to me that Beto is out there working, while Ted is kind of coasting, assuming the Rs will come out and vote for him regardless (which is definitely possible). Beto is doing all of these events, but it feels like you hear nothing from Ted?

If you look at Cruz's Facebook and website etc., yes, he is out there campaigning too, but he didn't really start to until Labor day, while Beto has been going at it like this for the better part of 2 years.

[Calthrina950]

I follow Beto on socials, and he is doing literally multiple on multiple events everyday. Meeting voters at like 5-10 Early voting sites a day, pop up rallies. I mean, you have to give him credit. He is GRINDING. The Question is, is Ted doing anything like this? I'm genuinely curious. It would seem to me that Beto is out there working, while Ted is kind of coasting, assuming the Rs will come out and vote for him regardless (which is definitely possible). Beto is doing all of these events, but it feels like you hear nothing from Ted?

If you look at Cruz's Facebook and website etc., yes, he is out there campaigning too, but he didn't really start to until Labor day, while Beto has been going at it like this for the better part of 2 years.

And it has been a vain effort, as the polls have shown throughout the year. Texas is not yet ready to flip to the Democrats, though O'Rourke will probably post one of the best performances for them here since 1994.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I follow Beto on socials, and he is doing literally multiple on multiple events everyday. Meeting voters at like 5-10 Early voting sites a day, pop up rallies. I mean, you have to give him credit. He is GRINDING. The Question is, is Ted doing anything like this? I'm genuinely curious. It would seem to me that Beto is out there working, while Ted is kind of coasting, assuming the Rs will come out and vote for him regardless (which is definitely possible). Beto is doing all of these events, but it feels like you hear nothing from Ted?

If you look at Cruz's Facebook and website etc., yes, he is out there campaigning too, but he didn't really start to until Labor day, while Beto has been going at it like this for the better part of 2 years.

And it has been a vain effort, as the polls have shown throughout the year. Texas is not yet ready to flip to the Democrats, though O'Rourke will probably post one of the best performances for them here since 1994.

I would not recommend going that far yet buddy. He probably won't win himself, but there is a good chance that he will provide the coattails to flip 1-3 federal house seats in the state from the gop to the dems, which is also still a good victory, or at least not an effort in vain.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Seems like a good article

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1057631333273354240

The Race Is More Normal Than You Think

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[libertpaulian]

Honestly, Dems need to GIVE UP on this race and work to rescue McCaskill and Donnelly!

[Zaybay]

Honestly, Dems need to GIVE UP on this race and work to rescue McCaskill and Donnelly!

No, Dems dont need to give up on ANY race, because they dont need to. All of their incumbents, from Warren to Heitkamp, are well stocked, and throwing more money wont do anything. Besides, its better to keep a wide playing field, just in case.

[SCNCmod]

Is Beto's almost complete lack of a TV ads strategy... other than his 2 or 3 poor shot & poor edited ads...

1) A good strategy given the type of campaign Beto is running.
or
2) A huge mistake, by an otherwise brilliantly run campaign.

[wbrocks67]

David Byler's piece is the worst of punditry though, because it's when the pundits assume they are right. They don't offer a "hey, we could be totally wrong though" approach. They assume that what they're saying is all correct and there's no way it could go a different way.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Is Beto's almost complete lack of a TV ads strategy... other than his 2 or 3 poor shot & poor edited ads...

1) A good strategy given the type of campaign Beto is running.
or
2) A huge mistake, by an otherwise brilliantly run campaign.

I say 1. His main focus is the ground game, not flooding the airwaves. His ground game campaigning has probably given him just as much media attention as a few good ads would, maybe even more.

[Gass3268]

I still think that Cruz wins, but something spooked him today:

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1058363039047733249

[junior chįmp]

I still think that Cruz wins, but something spooked him today:

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1058363039047733249

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/691742501212983296

[Yank2133]

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Yeah. Cruz has done this before during the cycle, in which acts like a candidate down 3-4 points, then a guy who is ahead.

It doesn't mean Beto is secretly ahead or anything, but it shows how crappy of a politician he is.

[wbrocks67]

Cruz would not be posting that if he was 8-9 pts ahead. Even 5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1058417640903979008

Why is O'Keefe not in jail yet?

[Aurelio21]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1058417640903979008

Why is O'Keefe not in jail yet?

Three (edited) things should be clear:
A)  O'Keefe, Jacon A Wohl and Pundit Gateway play in the same C-classed-league for promotion into the B-classed-league with Alex Jones.
B) In a role-reversed model, Beto would now lose his 5-% advantage in a blue state and likely the election, too.
C) Sadly, he will not go negative on this Cruz-gaffe and paint him as "Alex-Jones-Contributor" and scare moderate and center-right independents away (asymmetrical warfare, as practized here by now soon-not-anymore chancellor Angela Merkel.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1058772811408388096

[junior chįmp]

Sweat Ted....sweat!

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1058915208062734336

[Oryxslayer]

Sweat Ted....sweat!

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1058915208062734336

Feels like expectation setting

[Gass3268]

Sweat Ted....sweat!

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1058915208062734336

Feels like expectation setting

Agreed, but usually that happens much earlier than the weekend before.

[ON Progressive]

Sweat Ted....sweat!

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1058915208062734336

Feels like expectation setting

That's almost certainly what it is. The GOP did this in every congressional special this cycle.