2000 (Holden/Talent) is on left, 2004 (Claire/Blunt) is on right. Republicans in red/Democrats in blue (yes, I reversed it on you all)
Basically, Blunt pulled out a huge win in Southwest Missouri (his home section).
And despite winning 101 counties, Blunt got 50% of the vote. Turns out that the counties which went for him made up 49.8% of the total vote, and the other 14 counties made up 50.2% of the vote. But Blunt carried his counties by a 61-38 margin and Claire carried her counties by a 58-41 margin.
As for Holden/Talent, people forget that it was much closer than Ashcroft/Carnahan. Holden was probably put over the top by votes from rural counties, something which really didn't go for Claire (who was the Jackson County [Kansas City] prosecutor)
And the darker colors on Blunt/McCaskill are really counties where Blunt got over 70% of the vote.
Most Republican county in 2004: Barton (79-19 for Blunt)
Most Democratic county in 2004: St. Lous City (78-21 for Claire)
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Interesting analysis...now what does all this tell us about a potential McCaskill-Talent matchup?
I would hazard to guess that regionally, it may cause a predicament for McCaskill... Talent can be expected to overperform Republicans in his St. Louis suburban base--exactly where Dems need to rack up margins...
a Democrat could counter with strong rural performance, but McCaskill sure didn't have that going for her in '04. Is that because of the popularity (at the time) of her opponent--Blunt? Or is the former big city prosecutor going to have trouble connecting with rural voters even when she faces a St. Louisian?
