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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  2000 and 2004 Missouri county maps
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Author Topic: 2000 and 2004 Missouri county maps  (Read 1714 times)
RBH
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« on: July 30, 2005, 10:23:51 pm »

2000 (Holden/Talent) is on left, 2004 (Claire/Blunt) is on right. Republicans in red/Democrats in blue (yes, I reversed it on you all)



Basically, Blunt pulled out a huge win in Southwest Missouri (his home section).

And despite winning 101 counties, Blunt got 50% of the vote. Turns out that the counties which went for him made up 49.8% of the total vote, and the other 14 counties made up 50.2% of the vote. But Blunt carried his counties by a 61-38 margin and Claire carried her counties by a 58-41 margin.

As for Holden/Talent, people forget that it was much closer than Ashcroft/Carnahan. Holden was probably put over the top by votes from rural counties, something which really didn't go for Claire (who was the Jackson County [Kansas City] prosecutor)

And the darker colors on Blunt/McCaskill are really counties where Blunt got over 70% of the vote.

Most Republican county in 2004: Barton (79-19 for Blunt)
Most Democratic county in 2004: St. Lous City (78-21 for Claire)
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Jake
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2005, 10:28:22 pm »

Cool, great maps and analysis Cheesy
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nini2287
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2005, 12:47:14 am »

Do you have any idea why Blunt was able to swing the I-70 and eastern I-44 corridors?
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RBH
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2005, 01:21:24 am »

Probably a combination of turnout and voters who voted for Holden switching to Blunt.

I haven't did the checking to see if Kinder/Cook (for Lt. Governor) or Carnahan/Hanaway (for Secretary of State) had such results.

I'm sure the maps comparing Blunt (Springfield) v. McCaskill (Kansas City) against Kinder (Cape Girardeau) v. Cook (Cape Girardeau) would be interesting.

Blunt, if he can get though this first term, will probably be on a fast track to running for the Presidency in 2012 or 2016. Something about him makes me think that he could run for President and get a lot of the Fundamentalist support, and establishment support from his dad.
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nini2287
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2005, 02:04:02 am »

Probably a combination of turnout and voters who voted for Holden switching to Blunt.

I haven't did the checking to see if Kinder/Cook (for Lt. Governor) or Carnahan/Hanaway (for Secretary of State) had such results.

I'm sure the maps comparing Blunt (Springfield) v. McCaskill (Kansas City) against Kinder (Cape Girardeau) v. Cook (Cape Girardeau) would be interesting.

Blunt, if he can get though this first term, will probably be on a fast track to running for the Presidency in 2012 or 2016. Something about him makes me think that he could run for President and get a lot of the Fundamentalist support, and establishment support from his dad.

Are Secretary of States elected on the same tickets as Governors in MO?  And do you have any idea why his approval numbers are so low?
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RBH
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2005, 02:09:59 am »

All six executive offices (Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Attorney General, Auditor) in Missouri are on separate ballots. Three of them are Republicans and three are Democrats. Although only the first five were up in 2004. The Auditor (currently Claire McCaskill) will be up in 2006. And no, I don't know why they make it like that either.

As for Blunt's approval ratings, I figure it's because he's made some unwise and unpopular decisions, such as the ones with medicare and other budget cuts.

For those of you who think my "Blunt for President" talk is totally foolish, consider this. Blunt also served in the Navy too.

As for Blunt/McCaskill v. Kinder/Cook

Contrast and Compare

(Blunt/McCaskill on the left, Kinder/Cook on the right)



Counties with the biggest difference between Cook and McCaskill (in Cook's favor)

County (difference) [Cook/McCaskill]

Clark (16%) [47/31]
Lewis (13%) [45/31]
Scotland (10%) [39/29]
Ralls (9%) [47/37]
Marion (9%) [40/32]

Biggest differences between Blunt and Kinder (in Blunt's favor) {County (Percentage) [Kinder/Blunt]}

Clark (17%) [50/67]
Lewis (15%) [52/67]
Scotland (12%) [59/70]
McDonald (10%) [63/73]
Ralls (10%) [52/62]
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socaldem
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2005, 05:20:01 am »

2000 (Holden/Talent) is on left, 2004 (Claire/Blunt) is on right. Republicans in red/Democrats in blue (yes, I reversed it on you all)



Basically, Blunt pulled out a huge win in Southwest Missouri (his home section).

And despite winning 101 counties, Blunt got 50% of the vote. Turns out that the counties which went for him made up 49.8% of the total vote, and the other 14 counties made up 50.2% of the vote. But Blunt carried his counties by a 61-38 margin and Claire carried her counties by a 58-41 margin.

As for Holden/Talent, people forget that it was much closer than Ashcroft/Carnahan. Holden was probably put over the top by votes from rural counties, something which really didn't go for Claire (who was the Jackson County [Kansas City] prosecutor)

And the darker colors on Blunt/McCaskill are really counties where Blunt got over 70% of the vote.

Most Republican county in 2004: Barton (79-19 for Blunt)
Most Democratic county in 2004: St. Lous City (78-21 for Claire)

--

Interesting analysis...now what does all this tell us about a potential McCaskill-Talent matchup?

I would hazard to guess that regionally, it may cause a predicament for McCaskill... Talent can be expected to overperform Republicans in his St. Louis suburban base--exactly where Dems need to rack up margins...

a Democrat could counter with strong rural performance, but McCaskill sure didn't have that going for her in '04.  Is that because of the popularity (at the time) of her opponent--Blunt?  Or is the former big city prosecutor going to have trouble connecting with rural voters even when she faces a St. Louisian? 


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Jake
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2005, 09:45:20 am »

Excuse my blatant stupidity, but who is Blunt's father again?
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RBH
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2005, 02:27:18 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2005, 02:29:01 pm by RBH »

Roy Blunt, the Senate Majority Whip, is the father of Matt Blunt.

As for McCaskill/Talent, Claire would have to do well in the St. Louis area against Talent. Although, Talent beat Jean Carnahan in 2002 and this was the map.



(NOTE: I did mess up and confuse Pettis county with Saline county.)

It's a shame that nobody mentions Bekki Cook when it comes to 2006. She only lost by 13,000 votes.

And Jean Carnahan, for those of you uninformed, is more from Rolla (in Eastern Missouri), but the Carnahan name still wins over voters who would vote Republican otherwise. Robin Carnahan is the Secretary of State right now.
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2005, 02:40:56 pm »

Ah, thanks. I thought it was someone important. He must be just over 30.
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RBH
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2005, 02:46:04 pm »

Another correction: Roy Blunt is the House Majority Whip.

Matt Blunt was born on November 20th, 1970, making him 34 right now.
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