2012: Obama vs Trump and 2016: Romney vs Hillary

[RC (a la Frémont)]

What would happen if Romney and Trump were nominated in opposite years? How would Trump do against the popular incumbent president and who would win the 2016 election? Please discuss.

[NHI]

What would happen if Romney and Trump were nominated in opposite years? How would Trump do against the popular incumbent president and who would win the 2016 election? Please discuss.

Trump resides an anti-establishment wave to win the nomination in 2012, and while his populism is appealing to some, he is unable to defeat the charismatic and popular Obama.

Obama: 346 (52%)
Trump: 192 (44%)[

Clinton uses similar tactics against Romney (as Obama did in 2012) but to lesser success. Clinton's likeability and trustworthiness is a factor, and with Romney running as a turnaround guy who can fix Washington, he easily defeats Clinton.

Romney: 328 (52%)
Clinton: 210 (46%)

[Kingpoleon]

2012:

341: Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 49.5%
197: Donald Trump/Bobby Jindal - 44.9%
Gary Johnson/John Monds - 5.0%


2016:

329: Mitt Romney/Condoleeza Rice - 50.9%
209: Hillary Clinton/James Stavridis - 45.2%

[OSR stands with Israel]

2012:

341: Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 49.5%
197: Donald Trump/Bobby Jindal - 44.9%
Gary Johnson/John Monds - 5.0%


2016:

329: Mitt Romney/Condoleeza Rice - 50.9%
209: Hillary Clinton/James Stavridis - 45.2%

Obama wins 2012 by 8 points Romney wins 2016 by 9-10

[DK_Mo82]

Firstly Romney probaly still beats Trump for the Repub nomination in 2012.  That said if he did get the nominationn in close but clean fashion, Obama gets between 65 and 70 million votes, Trump between 55 and 60 million votes.

So that is 2008 without Indiana.

[DK_Mo82]

Ok and then Hillary/Romney the next cycle probably means the Republicans have succumbed to so called globalism and Romney runs as a responsible statesman type.  Both are disliked so turnout is low, and the real battle for the voters occurs with the upper middle class suburbs in places like Philly, NOVA, NC, Florida, As well as how well Romney can bring out people who do not particularly like him in places like Ohio and Northern Florida.  

In this map Romney wins 2016over Clinton 277-261, but probably loses the popular vote by 1%.  I also think there would be some opportunity for  third party antiestablishment candidates in this scenario of both left and right.  

[West_Midlander]

Obama wins in a landslide.
Romney wins a slim popular vote & electoral victory.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Obama beats Trump handily.

Romney beats HRC narrowly.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2012 election:

Obama/Biden 364     53%
Trump/Santorum 174 45%


This causes Democrats to even win the Nevada and Arizona (Flake only won by 3) to be won by the democrats giving the Democrats a 57-43 majority in the senate and Democrats gain 9 more seats in the house reducing the GOP margin to 225-213.


In 2014 GOP wave is slightly bigger as they are able to win the Virginia Senate Races giving them a net pick up of 10 seats which gives them a 53-47 Margin in senate and gain 5 more house seats giving them 252 seats in the house.


2016:

Romney/Martinez 353 54%
Hillary/Kaine 185 45%

Hillary ekes out a win In Oregon and Maine(Winner Take All)

The 2016 elections results in GOP gaining Nevada and Colorado while only losing Illinois giving them a Senate Majority of 54-46, and the GOP gains 4 more seats in the house giving them 256 seats in the house.

[RC (a la Frémont)]

So that is 2008 without Indiana.

*And NE-01 instead of NE-02