Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Former President tack50]

A few updates :
Today is the Flemish National Day and traditionally the First-Minister of Flanders gives a speech in Courtrai/Kortrijk (where the battle of Golden Spurs took place) the day before. Geert Bourgeois (N-VA) put the communitarian issues back on the agenda, particularly as he recently commissioned the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KUL) to do a study on the amount of transfers Wallonia receives from Flanders. He’s now explicitly called for a 7th state reform, although I can’t see how the N-VA will ever be allowed near negotiations on institutional reform by the francophone parties. This also comes as two N-VA defectors who were unhappy with the decision to enter a purely socio-economic and non-communitarian deal with the other parties are given an award for services to Flemish Emancipation. It shows the pressure parts of the nationalist civilian organs are putting on the N-VA, no doubt also emboldened by Assemblea in Catalunya pushing through the referendum.
EDIT : here below is a guest list of a Flemish nationalist event today



As a reminder, VB are seen to have a cordon sanitaire around them, so this doesn't look good for N-VA. I imagine Catalan nationalists wouldn't want their flag next to the Taal Aktie Komitee either.


An Open VLD member was caught going to an expensive Thai hotel full of hookers, made famous by The Hangover, all at the tax payer’s expense. He’s stepped aside but VLD president Rutten defended him. It is more of a sign of how the political class are now under intense scrutiny, than a genuine scandal.

Benoit Lutgen (Cdh) appears to have announced the collapse of the rouge-romaine PS-Cdh coalition without informing MR, Défi, Ecolo, and even some of his own party members, particularly in Brussels. There’s talk that the Brussels wing of the Cdh (whose strongwoman Joelle Milquet is very close to Di Rupo) might even go against party order and maintain the PS in power. But Lutgen appears to have demonstrated some degree of political amateurism by only starting negotiations after his announcement. At the same time, it hopefully ends the culture of behind closed door deals.

Yeah, what's with the Catalan independentist flags there? There aren't any Catalan speakers invited, and while they both think that Flanders/Catalonia should be independent, VB's brand of independentism is fundamentally different from ERC's (a lot closer to the Scottish SNP) or even PDECat's (conservative, but far from "alt-right", just mainstream conservatives)

[Former President tack50]

Not sure how relevant this is, but according to polls Belgians don't seem to care much about the Catalan issue even with Catalan regional president "exiled" there. Other than that you get Flanders being more sympathetic, probably as expected, and Belgians overall siding with Spain, but specially not knowing much (without opinion is the real winner).

Dans la crise catalane, soutenez-vous la position du gouvernement espagnol ou de Puigdemont ?







http://www.lesoir.be/128952/article/2017-12-12/grand-barometre-les-belges-peu-seduits-par-le-projet-catalan

[Former President tack50]

Wait, I thought Vlaams Belang was the real far right party while N-VA was just anti-inmigration but not really far right?

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the current composition of the Belgian parliament now that N-VA has left, could PS and CdH support the current government so it gets a majority again? Or they have no incentive to do so? (particularly PS)

[Former President tack50]

Why do the Flemish Dutch speaking parties even bother with contesting the elections in Brussels? (other than the N-VA of course)

Wouldn't it be better for them to simply endorse their sister Walloon equivalent? (so CD&V endorses CDH, Open VLD endorses MR and sp.a endorses PS)

They have a small percentage of the vote, but they still act as a spoiler for their more relevant Walloon equivalent.

[Former President tack50]

Did the French/Waloon test only:

75% PS
74% PTB
70% Ecolo
68% DeFi
64% CdH
51% MR
33% PP

[Former President tack50]

After watching that flyer, I now endorse DeFI and PS for Brussels

[Former President tack50]

Given that PS-Ecolo-PTB have a majority in Wallonia, why not go with a full left wing government coalition?

[Former President tack50]

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.

Why is VLD rejecting a non Flemish majority coalition? I thought NVA and VB were the only ones that would care about that stuff?

Further reason to merge the equivalent parties IMO (PS/spa; CDV/CDH, etc)

[Former President tack50]

Yes, what this country needs right now more than ever is testimonial parties blocking any chance of governments being formed...I guess that's a one way ticket to breaking our record Laki, but not to improving living poor, handicapped, and workers conditions, other than to bring the PS further to the left thus ruling out any federal majority.

For Marxists, PVDA-PTB voters sure do like the status quo.

Honestly the fact that Belgium can't form a government is a problem of Belgian politicians (same here to be honest).

Hypothetically Belgium could also get some sort of electoral system that is majoritarian in nature, like say a 2 round system like France, FPTP like the UK or even a majority bonus like Greece (probably split on sectarian lines).

Then again IMO the biggest problem in Belgium is the fact that the parties are split on sectarian lines (except PTB/PvdA). Government formation might be easier if the results looked like this instead

Socialist Party: 29
Liberal Party: 26
N-VA: 25
Green Party: 21
VB: 18
Christian Democratic Party: 17
PvdA-PTB: 12
DeFI: 2

Then again I will admit even with this it is hard to form a stable government. A Socialist-Liberal-Green government does have a majority though, so why hasn't it been done? It would also cut a 6 party coalition into only 3 parties.

Sidenote: Why does Belgium not have repeat elections like Spain or Israel in cases of deadlock? Maybe a new election would get things unstuck.

[Former President tack50]

Wait so what will be the composition of the government?

If there is a time for a temporary unity government it is this one given the crisis situation combined with the deadlock. In fact I would even invite PTB/PvdA and VB to said unity government; the whole point of a unity government is to have no (meaningful) opposition.

[Former President tack50]

Wait, how on Earth did the fascists from VB get to 24%?

Also, given that VB+N-VA are at 45% or so, any chance Flanders goes full Catalonia and actually tries to secede? I wonder what new Belgian resident Puigdemont thinks about it

[Former President tack50]

A guess of national seat numbers if the results were like in that poll: VB 35-40, PVDA 5-8, PTB 15-20. Averaged and put together, it works out to 62 seats.

14, 14, fourteen seats short of a NazBol majority. In 2020, in a peaceful, prosperous Western European country.

Dear Belgian politicians, how did you manage to fxck up this much?

For what is worth there is already a NazBol majority in Thüringia, though admittedly that was:

a) A regional election
b) While Germany is part of Western Europe; Thuringen is still part of the former East Germany, which I guess makes it count as Eastern Europe if going by Cold War divides?

To be honest I wonder what happens if a Nazbol coalition does get a majority somehow (whether in Flanders or in Belgium at large). Probably the N-VA gets invited to the all party coalition somehow?

[Former President tack50]

Also, since everyone here seems very pessimistic, how at risk is Belgium really of breaking up? And if broken up, how would the region now look like?

Obviously Wallonia and Flanders would separate, but the big question is, what happens to Brussels, and the corridor linking Brussels to Wallonia?

Would Flanders give up Brussels and said corridor? Would it still take them despite Brussels not wanting to leave?

Bonus points if you somehow make Brussels a free city or some sort of free city or "EU capital district"

[Former President tack50]

Why is it such a big issue that there is no majority in Flanders? It's not like Wallonia complains when there isn't a majority there? (Or Brussels for that matter?)

[Former President tack50]

Nice, VB+N-VA majority in Flanders plus only 13 seats away from a negative majority federally and this is only a week into the Vivaldi cabinet.

Let's pick up some popcorn and watch the fireworks I suppose