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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 50567 times)
I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
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E: -2.84, S: -2.96

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« on: September 17, 2018, 11:41:15 pm »

In a month, we have elections: mayoral and provincal elections... Next year in spring, we have European, regional and federal elections, so lots of elections upcoming in Belgium (almost all of them in the next 9 months, looking forward to it).

I expect in general N-VA (nationalists) will keep their lead (and grow in local elections). CD&V will lose in local elections, and possibly a bit in the elections next year as well. The social democrats will lose heavily both in local elections and elections next year... The Greens will do well. The PVDA-PTB will also gain ground in both elections. The far-right / populist party (Vlaams Belang) will also gain votes. Liberal party will be status-quo (possibly making slight gains in local elections, and losing slightly in federal elections next year).

In french-speaking Belgium, the far-left and greens will win votes. Far-right / populist (but not sure what political party exactly) and Défi will also win votes. French-speaking liberals will be status-quo. French-speaking social democrats will lose bigly. French-speaking christian democrats will also lose heavily.
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2018, 11:53:04 pm »
« Edited: September 18, 2018, 12:00:06 am by Lakigigar »

Why is the Worker's Party doing so well in Wallonia as they seem way out on the left.  I am not an expert on Belgian politics, but would it be fair to say Flanders leans right and Wallonia leans left as it seems the left tends to win big there and right big in Flanders.  Mind you the Christian Democrats seem fairly centrist so not sure if you would call the CDH or CD&V as right wing parties and likewise Open VLD and Reformist Movement are labeled centre-right, but they same like Belgium's version of the Democrats of the US, Liberal Party of Canada, or Liberal Democrats of UK in terms of where they stand on the political spectrum as opposed to a more market liberal party like the VVD in the Netherlands.  Otherwise correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is they are more like the D66 than VVD.  Also with the Worker's Party doing well any particular reason or is like France with Melenchon and UK with Corbyn you have a lot of dissatisfied younger voters who are attracted to hard left policies without fully understanding them.  Anyone know?

I'm a Worker's Party voter myself and active in the local party organization (so i might be biased), but there are a few reasons... Many people are disappointed by what social democrat parties have done. They've been involved in a lot of corruption scandals, while lots of social democrats also aren't really socialist anymore, leaving space on their left flank to be exploited. In Flanders mostly by exploited by the Greens and in Wallonie where there is much more space, the PVDA-PTB.

Wallonia is left-leaning, is quite socialist, because it's a poor region compared to the much richer Flanders, and there is increasing polarization between people in Flanders mostly voting right-wing and people in Wallonia voting left-wing, resulting in people who don't want to vote for both the right-wing (which is seen as favouring Flanders, supporting the current government, which has high approval ratings there, because only the right-wing french-speaking liberal party participates in it) and for social democrats (which were involved in a lot of corruption scandals and are being seen as greedy for power). The Worker's Party however did really some good opposition work which could be credited for removing the (asocial) Turteltaks. And is also opposed to raising the retirement age. Many french-speaking belgians also don't see an alternative and vote Worker's Party as a protest vote, because they've lost trust in the social democratic party, and won't vote. PVDA also has some strong politicians which are popular in french-speaking Belgium. Especially the region of Liege seems to have shifted a lot to the Worker's Party (Seraing, Herstal, Liege and to a lesser extent cities like Verviers).

- The Christian Democratic Party is also seen as greedy for power, as flip-flopping on the issues too much, and as possibly participating in the next right-wing government.
- Défi has gain votes as well, which could be seen as a more french-speaking regionalist party, which  represents the french-speaking population better and is liberal. (they've gained a lot of support, esp. in regions like Brussels as well).
- French-speaking Greens are another alternative and have won some votes as well.
- Pollings might underestimate or trouble estimating the chances of populist parties in french-speaking Belgium, but they might win some votes as well.

-> CD&V is on social issues centre-right and on economic issues centre-left
-> Open VLD is on social issues centre-left and on economic issues centre-right, and imo even have shifted to right-wing.
Both parties would mostly be Democratic yes. Even some voters of N-VA (Nationalist) would probably vote Democratic in the USA. The N-VA didn't want to endorse both Clinton or Trump in the elections. All other parties endorsed Clinton, except for the far-right which supported Trump, and the far-left supported Sanders, and opposed both Clinton and Trump.

Open VLD is a combination of D66 and VVD but imo leaning towards VVD. Lots of people who would vote for D66 in the Netherlands would vote Green i believe.
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
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Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 12:02:13 am »

Plenty of countries are artificial creations made to suit elites; which is part of the reason why nationalism is a scourge - but it doesn't mean Belgium is less of a real country than any other
It is less of a real country than others like France, Sweden, Denmark, Finland.

But yes, other countries' borders should have their borders fixed like Iraq for example.

I disagree... I believe only 10% is supportive of Flemish independence. More support status-quo or confederalism though. Most people though feel Belgian, and not Flemish in the first place. The performance of our national football team on the world cup football increased our national unity as well. As long, we have a good national football team, independence isn't going to be an issue, and most people have seen that radical political stances aren't always good, as we've seen with Trump and Brexit, so i think that many undecided people or insecure people would eventually not vote for Flemish independence.
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
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*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2018, 10:18:31 am »

Some new pollings in northeastern Dutch-speaking province of Limburg for the mayoral elections.

Hasselt (13th largest city of Belgium, largest of Limburg)



N-VA (Nationalist) - 28,8% (+3,3%)
Red-Green (socialist / green cartel) - 24,3% (-8,7%)
CD&V (christian democratic) - 21,6% (-1,1%)
Flemish interest (far-right / nationalist) - 8,2% (+2,4%)
Open VLD (right-wing liberal) - 7,8% (-2,1%)
PVDA (far-left) - 6,8% (NEW)
Others - 1,3%
15% undecided
Leefbaar Hasselt has suspended their campaign meanwhile.

Genk (18th largest city of Belgium, 2nd largest of Limburg)



CD&V (christian democratic) - 29,2% (-11,8%)
N-VA (nationalist) - 25,5% (+7,3%)
ProGenk (socialist) - 13,1% (cartel with greens had 16,77% in 2012)
Flemish Interest (far-right / nationalist) - 10% (+0,7%)
PVDA (far-left) - 8,4% (-0,4%)
Greens - 7,5% (cartel with socialists had 16,77% in 2012)
Open Genk (right-wing liberals) - 4% (-0,4%)
A local list - 2,4% (+0,9%)
15% undecided
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2018, 07:00:58 pm »

Lots of pollings in Belgian cities, i'll make multiple posts to make my life a bit easier, focusing on lots of Flemish cities. This is the polling in Ghent



s.pa - green (social democrat / green cartel) - 37,2% (-8,2%)
Open VLD (liberals) - 23,4% (+6,9%)
N-VA (nationalists) - 13,4% (-3,7%)
PVDA (far-left) - 7,9% (+5,0%)
Flemish Interest (far-right) - 7,4% (+0,9%)
CD&V (christian democratic) - 5,1% (-4,0%)
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2018, 07:10:00 pm »
« Edited: September 28, 2018, 07:14:20 pm by Lakigigar »

Polling for Antwerp:



N-VA (nationalists) - 29,9% (-7,8%)
Greens (greens) - 19,2% (+11,3%)
s.pa (social democrats) - 16,0% (-12,6% - though were in cartel with CD&V in 2012)
Flemish Interest (far-right) - 11,6% (+1,4%)
PVDA (far-left) - 8,3% (+0,3%)
CD&V (christian democratic) - 7,1% (-21,5% - though were in cartel with CD&V in 2012)
Open VLD (liberals) - 5,8% (+0,3%)

Coallition talks will be hard. N-VA, Open VLD and CD&V have stated they don't want to enter coallition with either PVDA or Flemish Interest. The Greens however have said they will never enter a coallition with N-VA. It is possible, it could take months or even a year to create a coallition that would work for Antwerp, especially because federal and regional elections also take place next year, and what happens in Antwerp, will have consequences for those elections.
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2018, 07:55:54 pm »

Leuven



s.pa (social democrats) - 24,9% (-6,5%)
Green (greens) - 23,6% (+8,1%)
N-VA (nationalists) - 21,4% (+2,1%)
CD&V (christian democrats) - 10,8% (-7,7%)
PVDA (far-left) - 6,0% (+3,2%)
Flemish Interest (far-right) - 5,8% (+2,1%)
Open VLD (liberals) - 5,7% (-2,1%)
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2018, 06:02:36 am »

I'm surprised PVDA are standing still in Antwerp but seemingly gaining everywhere else.

Probably because the left-wing is in opposition in Antwerp, and because 6 years ago, a vote for PVDA would be seen more as a protest vote to s.pa-cd&v (the list of the incumbent mayor of then - who lost to the nationalist). The result six years ago was surprising and really a good one, and it might be hard to improve that, because they've done a great job six years ago. It might in some way be the cap. People who dislike the incumbent mayor might prefer voting for the Greens because they have a real chance to dethrone the incumbent mayor. The s.pa (socialists) have been involved in some scandals in Antwerp and are losing. They changed their candidate, and initially had a cartel with the Greens but the Greens didn't trust the s.pa anymore and the cartel was done.

In other cities, PVDA is making that breakthrough while in Antwerp, they've already done it.

(also, it's a polling, i suspect they will do better).
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2018, 01:38:10 pm »

The far-left and far-right have a few opportunities to serve their first mayors. The far-right has a shot in Ninove (a middle-sized city), while the far-left has a shot in the industrial city of Zelzate. In Wallonia the far-left is expected to do well in both Hainaut and the Liège agglomeration, and they have a shot to become the biggest in Seraing, which opinion pollings suggest, and are 2nd in the cities of Liège and Charleroi. Paul Magnette (PS Mayor) hasn't ruled out forming a coallition with the PTB in Charleroi.

A few more pollings:

Brugge



Mechelen



VLD+Groen+M+ = progressive cartel of greens and liberals

Hasselt



Ostend

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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2018, 02:01:21 pm »

More pollings of Flemish cities:

Sint-Niklaas



N-VA - 25,7% (-2,8%)
Vlaams Belang - 17,7% (+6,0%)
Green - 14,4% (had 25,7% in cartel with greens)
CD&V - 13,5% (-2,1%)
s.pa - 13,1% (had 25,7% in cartel with greens)
Open VLD - 9,9% (+2,7%)
PVDA - 4,2% (+2,4%)

Kortrijk



CD&V - 22,7% (-10,3%)
Open VLD - 20,6% (-0,7%)
N-VA - 16% (-0,3%)
s.pa - 10,9% (-3,4%)
Green - 10,3% (+2,9%)
Vlaams Belang - 9,6% (+3,5%)
Other parties - 5,5% (including PVDA which had 1,2% last time)

Aalst



N-VA - 27,2% (-3,9%)
Open VLD - 15,8% (-1,5%)
Vlaams Belang - 14,6% (+3,8%)
CD&V - 12,7% (-4,6%)
Green - 11,2% (+5,3%)
Lijst A (s.pa dissidents) - 7,8%
s.pa - 5,4% (-11,0%)
PVDA - 3,1% (+1,9%)


Roeselare



CD&V - 30% (+2%)
N-VA - 20,6% (-8,6%)
Vlaams Belang - 15% (+5,9%)
Groen - 13,1% (+4,6%)
Open VLD - 9,2% (+0,8%)
s.pa - 8,9% (-5,3%)

Turnhout



Vlaams Belang - 17,6% (+7,5%)
N-VA - 15,6% (-10%)
TIM (local party with incumbent mayor) - 12,6% (-3,7%)
Green - 12,2% (+1,5%)
CD&V - 11,6% (-3,5%)
Open VLD - 9,8% (+4,5%)
s.pa - 9,3% (-2,1%)
PVDA - 6,7% (+4,7%)

Genk



N-VA - 29,8% (+11,6%)
CD&V - 27% (-14%)
s.pa - 11,5% (had 16,8% cartel with Greens)
Vlaams Belang - 11,5% (+2,2%)
PVDA - 6,6% (-2,2%)
Groen - 6,1% (had 16,8% in cartel with s.pa)
Open VLD - 5,3% (+0,9%)
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2018, 06:29:36 pm »
« Edited: September 30, 2018, 06:34:38 pm by Lakigigar »

There is now controversy on what the Antwerp candidate for the socialist party has said in a newspaper, when she had a double interview together with Antwerp candidate for the far-right party, in which she minimalised what he was (i won't call him a racist), while he is widely seen as one of the hardliners of the far-right party, and as a real fascist. Of course, this created a backslash on social media and alienated some social democrats, not something you can use two weeks before the election.



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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2018, 09:58:42 pm »
« Edited: September 30, 2018, 10:20:08 pm by Lakigigar »

Wait, I thought Vlaams Belang was the real far right party while N-VA was just anti-inmigration but not really far right?

Filip De Winter is part of Vlaams Belang and a hardliner, one who was part of it's even more radical right-wing past during the 1990's and early 2000's.

N-VA however is indeed right-wing and conservative-liberal but anti-immigration, but among some of their members it has far-right tendencies which was recently revealed in a PANO documentary (the Schild & Vrienden scandal).

N-VA has also more & more becoming a traditional party, and some of their disappointed members are returning to where they originally originate from: the Vlaams Belang, which is seen in opinion polls. N-VA however seems to be recruiting from the two other governing parties: the liberals and the christian democrats. The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats are losing votes to the Greens. PVDA claims most of it's new members used to be N-VA voting members, and probably also recruits people disappointed with social democrat rule. I also believe a small part of their new influx used to be a Green. Someone active in our local branch was previously active for the Greens, and i've shifted more to the left as well, where i used to favour Green and even have voted for CD&V and Open VLD in respectively regional and federal elections. The environment & climate are my most important issues, and i've realized that we won't make any progression on that, as long we don't overthrow the capitalist system and the system of multinational monopolies all over the world. The PVDA also has a much more ambitious climate program, and some of it's members are ecosocialist (similar to what Naomi Klein advocates). The Greens have indicated once in an interview that their visions align more with the liberal Open VLD than with us, and because the actions of VLD when it comes to energy & environment are really disappointing (in fact they serve the minister of Energy & Environment), have alienated me.

Belgium is right now not decreasing it's environmental output, in fact it even has increased, and it's rate of increase has increased compared to the previous government, while in fact we are part of the Paris agreement, all parties but Vlaams Belang claim to be pro-environmental action, and that we all believe climate change is an important issue of our time. But not enough action has been taken. I mean, what's the difference with the Trump cabinet in the US. The communication is very different, but in reality we aren't that different (especially since local governments inside the US seems to take environmental action to the same degree we do). Ironically, more authoritarian nations seem to be able to have a bigger environmental effort, like China and some Latin American nations. Liberals will only enact environmental measures that won't hurt the economy (which is basically never), and they'll always prefer building new industrial zones over maintaining / creating new green zones (even while claiming to be pro-environmentalist). This partly made me realize i can not longer support the Green party, and made me shift left.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-26/belgium-faces-winter-blackouts-as-aging-nuclear-plants-falter

Our minister of energy has done a terrible job on other things as well. This was all over the news last week. Belgium could face blackouts this winter, especially in november, and the region i live in, is most likely going to be one of the first regions that won't be provided with power if we don't have enough power, which is increasingly becoming likely. To be fair, it's the result of multiple decades of terrible rule, since this is something we could see coming for years, and nothing has been done on it.

In my belief, energy should be re-nationalized again, and we should prioritize on building green infrastructure (which would create jobs, lose our dependency on other countries for gas, electricity & energy, be good for climate & environment, and it will have to be done sooner or later, so you better do it soon).
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2018, 07:51:04 pm »

Some interesting news:
1) Yesterday a polling among the youth leaked out, and it said the youth didn't trust politics in general, have a negative association with politics, didn't knew basic answers like who governs or who's the mayor of their city. 24% of the 18 to 23 year olds also said they prefer an authoritarian leader over a democracy. Among lower-college educated people, this rises to over 50%.

2) https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/02/candidates-with-nazi-sympathies-exposed/ 15 people of the 3000 candidates for Flemish Interest were accused of nazi sympathies, based on their behaviour on social media. Some of them had sympathies for a terrorist group that aimed for the creation of a white Flanders state, and to achieve that they wanted to trigger a civil war. One of the acts planned was to kill the far-right icon Filip De Winter for tactical reasons.

3) Yesterday, a social housing crisis in Ghent in which the bad state got indicted in a tv show based on the upcoming elections, the local city government (social democrat, green and liberals) had to admit that they knew off this situation and that nothing was done yet. Political experts have stated that this might abruptly change the local results, similarly to what happened in 1999 after the dioxin crisis. Social housing might instantly become the main theme / issue of the elections in Ghent, where it used to be mobility and transport. I estimate this might cause people to swing to the opposition (N-VA), especially people who were centrist and thinking of voting liberals. But a lot of people (and i mean a lot - esp. green and social democrat voters) might actually swing to the far-left, especially because it's a leftist theme (and the left is criticized for it), and the news report was shocking.
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Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2018, 05:30:03 am »
« Edited: October 04, 2018, 05:33:55 am by Lakigigar »



Title: "how mold might help the PVDA-PTB to win the elections in Ghent."

Here is an article that suggests the housing crisis in Ghent will affect the local elections here. My english isn't good enough to summarize it well enough, so excuse me for that, but in short it says that the social democrats and greens responded very badly on it, and that 10 days before the election, this is something that will hamper their electoral performances. The liberals - who are in the coallition as well - couldn't profit from it to take the "momentum", and it's doubtful the nationalists that suffer from credibility issues in Ghent, will win from this situation. The article concludes that the far-left party that made from housing it's main focus on the election and campaigned on it (on the streets and locally, but aren't invited to talkshows and debates on television). The left-wing coallition felt the heat of the far-left. The breakthrough of the far-left was something we've expected, but now it is a certainty.

(couldn't find an english article that exactly said what it's all about)
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Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2018, 09:57:02 am »

How about this new Muslim party? Are they going to run anywhere?

There are more parties, because there are lots of divisions in the immigrant vote. We have like two Turkish parties (because they couldn't agree to form a party together, similar to DENK in Netherlands, which have in common that they are left-wing but pro-Erdogan) and the more radical ISLAM party. I haven't heard about the latter one, but I heard the Turkish party had troubles with even getting enough good signatures and finding enough candidates to even get on the ballot in some major cities, like they had trouble in Antwerp and also in Beringen (a city with a huge population of Turkish immigrants), one of those parties failed to submit a list.

What i've heard so far, it seems like the elections will be very disappointing for the immigrant parties. What differs in Belgium from the Netherlands is that there is no united immigrant party and that we have a electoral threshold of 5% which is rather rough, and makes it hard for new parties to arise on the political field, so i can almost certainly say they'll not have a breakthrough in Flanders.
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Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2018, 02:00:45 pm »
« Edited: October 05, 2018, 02:37:26 pm by Lakigigar »

A bit surprised s.pa and CD&V still have such high scores... I definitely don't believe it in the case of CD&V after they've done a terrible campaign and were very inauthentic... Candidate of the CD&V suggested multiple times he wanted to become mayor (with only 7% in the polls). Both Greens and N-VA have said that they would never let him become mayor. He moved to Antwerp specially for the elections to become a mayor, and made a gaffe during spring when a Jewish candidate was chosen to be on the list and declared that he refused to shake hands with women (he left the list and was replaced with a different representative of the Jewish community).

s.pa after it's scandals still seem to be around 15% while PVDA only has 8. Worth mentioning though that the PVDA polled at 3,2% a week before the elections in 2012, and eventually had 8%, so i'm still hoping for 10%. Would be disappointed with less.

Antwerp City government seems like it will be a N-VA / VLD / Green or N-VA / CD&V and Green coallition. I think the N-VA & Green coallition seems inevitable especially since the incumbent stated at least twice that their program on mobility is almost exactly the same except for one thing, and he is remarkably mild for the Greens (while he used to be harder for them before).

I've checked which coallitions would be possible...
N-VA / VB coallition isn't enough. They need CD&V. This will never happen.
CD&V / VLD / Green / s.pa need PVDA. I doubt it will happen, because even Green weren't enthuasiastic about such a coallition. VLD won't let this happen. CD&V might, but only if Peeters would become mayor, which won't happen either. Coallitions with 4 or 5 parties tend to be unstable and not preferrable.

N-VA / Green do have enough, but who would become mayor. Greens won't join a city government in which De Wever (as biggest) will stay mayor, unless De Wever makes major concessions, but even than forming a coallition will be hard, because there are elections next year, and what happens in Antwerp often does have consequences for 2019. Green might get reckoned off if they get into a coallition with N-VA because they're basically the anti-N-VA vote. I would be glad if such a coallition would happen (honestly), because it would probably mean that the PVDA in particular will do even better next year (Greens will almost certainly lose lots of votes in this scenario).

An alternative might be a N-VA / s.pa / CD&V and Open VLD city government though, but that will be unworkable and unpreferrable as well, and both N-VA and s.pa might get reckoned off for such a coalition. I believe greens and the far-right would profit from such a coalition. One additional reason of why this might be an unlikely coalition is because in this scenario, all the four parties will have lost votes, and all the "losers" of the election will join a coalition to govern. It will only happen if they're quite hopeless about forming a city government and the politial parties feel like they've to take respnsability, but i don't think this scenario is something any of those parties would like.

It's possible that if this polling will eventually be the end result on sunday 14 oct that negotiations in Antwerp will take at least 6 months, because i can't see something working out. There is no clear winner in that case, both the left and the right are quite even. It might be similar to the political crisisses Spain experienced lately, but than to a local level here. Though in Belgium - just like in Spain - it was always quite hard to form a government, partly because of the linguistic/cultural divide between north and south.

*i would also suggest not to take those polls to literally because 1) a lot can happen in one week / two weeks in politics (as we've seen in Ghent -> that poll is probably outdated), 2) they're still polls (and even local polls, and just like state polls in USA they're less reliable than nationwide polls 3) still lots of undecided voters 4) margin of error with 3-4% leaves room for error and can mean a huge difference for certain political parties.
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2018, 10:30:19 am »

In Ghent, there are apparently three Turkish minor parties that apparently fight for the Turkish vote. They all have one thing in common: they are very pro-Erdogan and criticize Turkish immigrants that are on the lists of Belgian political parties for not being pro-Erdogan enough. Apparently, the campaign is very dirty and nasty i've seen in an article. There are basically three parties, two are basically split-off from social democrats (and similar to DENK in Netherlands), but there is also a right-wing socially conservative Turkish immigrant party and the party is very populist / extremist (with many Grey Wolves on their list). In my belief, this isn't a good evolution. I would prefer my political party to never work together with those fringe political parties, and i would rather support the Flemish right-wing than immigrant parties, and i would also encourage immigrants to work throughout our own political parties. We don't have any need for an immigrant party that would split the vote even more and would have the opposite effect they actually want (bringing the right in power). We already have a social democrat, democratic socialist and a green party. I think that's enough. There is maybe room for a left liberal (similar to D66) or a left-wing nationalist party (similar to SNP or M5S), but that's about it.

I don't have sympathy for parties / people that bring Turkish issues into our own local elections, and make this election all about: pro-Erdogan, anti-Gulen, anti-Kurds and go on and on... People like this don't belong in our society.
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2018, 11:56:52 am »
« Edited: October 13, 2018, 12:01:42 pm by Lakigigar »

I'll probably be present here as well. Coloniac, i assume you're from Brussels or the Southern Part of Belgium. My coverage from these regions is less clear because i'm from Flanders, and the Flemish television only discuss results from the northern part of Belgium and possibly Brussels (not sure about that), and occassionaly we will get a result of the southern parts of Belgium. I think it works like this. it's been a long time ago we've had elections and i almost forget. I'm more used to watching CNN, BBC (for british and american election coverage: 2016 election, British elections of 2015 and 2017 and Brexit and indyref vote) and dutch political tv-shows. I've watched (parts of) the political shows of 2006, 2007, 2010, 2012 and possibly 2014, but not sure about that. I've probably followed coverage of 2014 elections way less than the coverage of British and American elections.

What i will look out for:

1) i'm curious to how PTB/PVDA will perform in Zelzate, Ghent, Kortrijk, my home city, Antwerp, Genk, Leuven, Sint-Niklaas, Mechelen, Turnhout, Bruges, Ostend, Hasselt, Brussels (and agglomeration), Liège and agglomeration, Charleroi, Verviers, Namur, Mouscron and Tournai.
2) Will the far-right have their first mayor ever in Belgium (look to what happens in Ninove)
3) What will happen in Antwerp (the key battleground). Political deadlock. Nationalist win or Green win? Most likely a political deadlock.
4) What will happen in Ghent. How will the recent leaked coverage of the poor state of social houses in Ghent influences the election. How will the nationalists and liberals perform and how much are socialists / greens going to lose.
5) Will the PVDA take power in Zelzate and/or Seraing?
6) How well will the Greens perform?
7) How much are the traditional parties going to lose everywhere (especially CD&V and s.pa)?
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2018, 03:18:05 am »

PTB will probably do well in those cities. I believe PP will do slightly better in Hainaut, but PTB will probably do very well in the Liege suburbs and Verviers.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2018, 06:32:44 am »

Another article you and french-speakers might find interesting from BePolitix with a nice run down of how the parties in WalloBrux are shaping up heading into tomorrow. Its very different case to Flanders though because only something like 40% of the communes in Wallonia have the same party configuration as the federal level, compared to 80% in Flanders.

https://absp.be/Blog/2018/10/08/les-elections-communales-en-wallonie-et-a-bruxelles-au-prisme-de-la-fragmentation/

Cool, so why the PTB more around Liège than Charleroi? Just traditional implantation?

Also, Antwerp seems surprisingly left wing considering its, you know, reputation. Does anyone actually vote PVDA outside of Borgehout?

I've voted PVDA, but also outside of Antwerp. Antwerp has both a strong right-and a strong left-wing, but it seems to be a trend that more people are shifting away from the centre.

PTB national spokesman (and charismatic person) Raoul Hedebouw comes from Liège. Liège has very industrial suburbs and quite a poor population (Herstal, Seraing), and the famous communist chairman of the 1950's Julien Lahaut also comes from the Liège suburbs. He was murdered back than by royalists, but in his city (Seraing) PTB wll likely achieve it's best result.
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2018, 07:48:22 am »

Live stream VRT here - in Dutch and focused on Flanders. Will there be any exit polls?

Don't think that's tradition here. I've never heard about exit polls and was surprised other countries had that, but exit polls aren't always reliable (as we've seen in the USA).

First results are coming in (but not fully counted):
one coastal city where the liberals lose.
a different town where the socialists lose, while the right-wing wins.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/#/11/1/31004/kaart

the map
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Posts: 4,173
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2018, 08:34:14 am »

First trends: nationalists seems to not do well. Liberals also lose a bit. Christian democrats & far-right win votes. On the left, not a clear trend yet (maybe we need to wait for more cities to come in).
With nationalists I assume you mean just the N-VA? Because the combined score of N-VA and VB seems to be increasing slightly.

Yes, i meant just N-VA, but i've deleted my post because it's hard to notice first trends... I posted it a bit too early. I've seen now towns and cities where liberals won a lot, and where CD&V lost a lot (despite winning in other towns).

VB usually win votes (but just slightly so far).
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Lakigigar
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2018, 09:28:19 am »

Disappointing results in Flanders so far, but there is no clear trend. In Ghent and the Antwerp suburbs, the PVDA fortunately does well, but in most other cities, they don't do well...

Very good day for VB. Slight losses for N-VA (but gains somewhere else). Liberals seems to do well mostly now. Socialists seem to decrease less than expected, while i had expected the Greens to do a bit better.

I don't know about the results in Brussels and French-speaking Belgium.
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Lakigigar
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Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2018, 10:30:11 am »

Looks like PS will not be harmed too much in Liege-City. Very poor result for PTB not even getting to 10%.

Mons and Charleroi will also stay in PS hands...

They seem to do best in the provinces of Antwerp and Limburg, despite a terrible result in Genk for the entire left. In Zelzate, it seems like PVDA will get on par with the result of 2012, but i had expected more... In the Antwerp suburbs, Hasselt and Ghent the PVDA seems to do the best results.

In my province, we don't have a breakthrough (as expected) but it's even less good than expected unfortunately. I might have to vote (reluctantly) Green next year in my province for federal & regional elections, because a vote for PVDA will be thrown away especially here.
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Lakigigar
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Posts: 4,173
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2018, 10:47:35 am »

One thing that i've noticed... pollings aren't very reliable here as well. One polling said N-VA would be the big winner in the Brussels election, and they've lost compared to 2012.
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