Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[mgop]

New poll. PTB largest party in Wallonia. But overall I think we are finally headed for the kind of electoral balkanisation seen in Flanders + Netherlands. MR being the largest party in Bxl with only 20% says as much.

'14 is last election.
'17 is now.



No real change in Flanders, apart from SP.A suffering due to being seen as PS-collaborators.

not really politically correct word

[mgop]

lets hope that this regime that use water cannons and tear gas against own citizens will fall as soon as possible

[mgop]

anything new here?

[mgop]

anything new here?

There was the 1st of May proceedings, which are an important day for the left but now also for the liberals to present their incentives to workers. During an election year it becomes particularly animated, in this case FGTB (largest Socialist union in Belgium) President Thierry Bodson seemed to have a dig at ECOLO by saying that any party that favoured climate policy over the urgent requirement for socio-economic reforms in favour of workers would not receive the FGTB's support. It comes also as the Liège branch of the FGTB became the first to break with the PS and start to court PTB. If that pressure increases both PS and ECOLO might be tempted to include PTB into their eventual Walloon coalition.

On the Flemish side N-VA President De Wever is really pushing the idea that if things stay the same the Flemish white collared middle class will get a "tsunami" of tax measures on their incomes by the protracted new Green-orientated government. He's now gambling on the 2014 strategy of saying "vote for us if you do not want the Francophone Left to govern" rather than focussing on immigration, which seems a better strategy to regain ground with swing VB-NVA voters. VB can always "outbid" N-VA on immigration but N-VA can always point to their record of actually beating the Francophone Left in return.

In Brussels there is a scandal in Schaerbeek over cdH and PS councillors pushing their "communities" to revolt against the authorities because a 4 year old girl was allegedly raped in her school. It turns out that she had an infection, now recognised as such by the parents themselves, but thanks to social media baiting including from the two councillor and a dense congregation of very dense people there was a "gathering" outside the school and some threw rocks at staff members, prompting the Défi Mayor to have to intervene with police. Trust in institutions is very low in Belgium as you can imagine, but this was still a nasty episode and the PS and cdH councillors are being (rightfully) villified for their role in it.

Anyway going back to the RTBF article and the possible permutations for a federal government given this seat composition :



National Union, 102 seats : Christian Democrats, Liberals, Socialists, Greens. Not sure why this is even considered as its electoral suicide for the Flemish Liberals and Christian Democrats and the Greens in general. Its N-VA's wet dream although unlike 2012-2014 it still would mean a Flemish majority is present in the federal government so not as undemocratic.

Variations of the National Union : Same as above but taking away parties such as sp.a or cdH because they lost seats, or even as the article states taking away the PS because the Flemish Right needs a scalp. Not going to happen easily either way though.

The Olive Tree : Christian Democrats, Socialists, Greens. This is a clear centre-left government that is associated with the somewhat disastrous Walloon government of the same name, so I cannot see CD&V entering this formula. But don't underestimate the ability of the Christian pillar to put their bargaining arrangements above ideological tenets or consistency with their previous actions, so its still a possibility.  

The "Rainbow/Purple+" : Basically the same as Verhofstadt I so Greens, Liberals, and Socialists. This may seem like electoral hara-kiri for the Liberals given how the first Verhofstadt government has worked out but in both parties cases it actually makes more sense than in 1999. For VLD they have already lost their hard right faction to the N-VA and if they present themselves as the internal opposition to "inevitable" Green tax rises it might get them some credit in upper Flemish middle class circles. They have also governed with Groen in places like Mechelen very successfully. For MR it has become clear that actually a lot of their electorate find their rightwards turn incoherent and the actions of a vocal minority. A lot of party grandees are saying that the decision to have the face of the campaign be Georges-Louis Bouchez, a member of the hard right in MR, has been disastrous and that the party needs to regain credibility with its traditional base.

Overall I think the last option is the most likely as things stand, but even more likely is a longer negotiation process that last time out.

Note that the N-VA doesn't appear to be in any scenario, and that's pretty much to be expected because of the MR collapse and their relatively poor result. N-VA have said they will nto govern with ECOLO because they are crypto-communists and won't govern with "Di Rupo-led PS" hinting that perhaps a PS-NVA accord is possible if Di Rupo steps aside.

"the olive tree" sounds the best of these, glad to see mr/vld in ruins.